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海洋一所发布第三代台风模式整体方案
Core Insights - The first marine research institute of the Ministry of Natural Resources of China unveiled a third-generation typhoon model based on the original "wave-induced turbulence" theory at the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, marking a significant breakthrough in marine disaster prevention and mitigation technology [1][2] - Typhoons affect over 1 billion people globally each year, causing severe threats to life, property, and economic development, with projected economic losses of approximately $133 billion in 2024, accounting for over 40% of total global natural disaster losses [1] - The new model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of rapid typhoon intensification, with hit rates increasing from about 50% to over 90%, surpassing the ten-year development goals set by the U.S. Meteorological Act in 2017 [2] Group 1 - The "wave-induced turbulence" theory provides a new understanding of the energy and momentum exchange at the air-sea interface, addressing a long-standing challenge in typhoon intensity forecasting [2] - The third-generation typhoon model developed by the marine research institute and international collaborators transitions from an "empirical correction" approach to a "mechanistic characterization and process simulation" approach [2] - The model has also reduced common systematic errors in ocean and climate models, laying a crucial foundation for enhancing medium- to long-term ocean and climate prediction capabilities [2] Group 2 - The marine research institute, in collaboration with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the World Meteorological Organization, organized a special session at the climate conference to showcase the advancements in typhoon forecasting capabilities [3] - Experts at the conference recognized the third-generation typhoon model as a novel solution to the long-standing issue of typhoon intensity forecasting, providing reliable technological support for coastal regions to better prepare for extreme typhoons and reduce disaster risks [3]