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量贩零食双寡头:鸣鸣的稳定 vs 万辰的弹性,谁的增长更可持续?
晚点LatePost· 2025-10-24 11:28
Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth of the bulk snack industry in China, which is projected to reach nearly 130 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 3.3% of the 4 trillion yuan snack and beverage retail market, with a growth rate exceeding 100% [5][6]. - The analysis focuses on the competitive dynamics between two major players, Mingming and Wancheng, and their operational strategies as channel merchants in the retail landscape [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bulk snack industry has significantly altered the retail channel structure in China, driven by a strong underlying logic and competitive forces [5][6]. - Mingming and Wancheng have emerged as the industry duopoly, capturing 42.7% and 32.8% of the market share respectively in 2024, with GMV figures of 555 billion yuan and 426 billion yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Operational Performance - In 2024, Mingming's GMV, revenue, order volume, and store count were 555 billion yuan, 393 billion yuan, 1.6 billion orders, and 14,400 stores, while Wancheng reported 426 billion yuan, 318 billion yuan, 1.2 billion orders, and 14,200 stores [15][22]. - Mingming's inventory turnover days were 11.6 days, while Wancheng's were 17.6 days, indicating a more efficient inventory management system for Mingming [15][16]. Group 3: Value Chain Analysis - The value chain distribution for Mingming in 2024 was 65.4% for suppliers, 5.4% for brand merchants, and 29.2% for franchisees, compared to Wancheng's 66.5%, 8.1%, and 25.4% respectively [15][27]. - Wancheng's suppliers received a higher share of the value chain in 2023, with 71.1% compared to Mingming's 62.1%, suggesting a more favorable commercial environment for suppliers working with Wancheng [17][27]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The article suggests that the bulk snack industry has the potential for continued growth, with a projected market size of 200 to 300 billion yuan and a possible market share for Mingming exceeding 60% [37][38]. - The potential for expansion into small goods retail, similar to the model of Miniso, is highlighted as a strategic avenue for growth, leveraging existing retail capabilities [37][38].