外卖/即时零售补贴对咖啡与茶饮的核心冲击集中在两点：一是对同店数据造成 阶段性干扰与波动；二是压制产品定价并传导至门店端利润率，进而对市场定 消费洞察：春节后连锁业态龙头的经营情况变化 20260227 摘要 瑞幸、古茗、锅圈等连锁品牌在 2026 年初表现出稳健的同店增长，增 速普遍达到中高个位数，部分公司甚至超过 10%，显示出较强的经营韧 性。 2025 年外卖/即时零售补贴对咖啡、茶饮龙头企业造成阶段性冲击，主 要体现在干扰同店数据和压制产品定价，但 2026 年一季度以来，价格 端出现企稳信号，补贴冲击方向性减弱。 品牌商在定价和渠道结构上出现积极变化，包括部分连锁品牌提价或倾 向于提价，瑞幸自有平台订单占比缓慢回升，减少对第三方补贴的依赖。 平台补贴投放呈现结构性选择，更倾向于 30 元以上客单价品类，咖啡 与茶饮由于客单价较低，对平台吸引力有限，支撑了补贴冲击边际降温 的判断。 以瑞幸为代表，利润率低点与杯单价低点可能出现在 2025 年四季度， 2026 年一季度具备边际上行的基础，利润率环比走差的担忧已明显消 除。 Q&A 春节前后渠道调研显示，连锁咖啡、连锁茶饮、火锅食材/烧烤以及量贩零食 ...

以好特卖、零食有鸣、零食很忙等为代表的折扣零食店，正成为深圳人返乡前囤年货的最后驿站。相比 传统超市，它们价格更亲民，品类更集中，春节大礼包更是早早售罄。 一位在南山大学城工作的市民李女士告诉记者："今晚的飞机回湖北，买点零食路上吃，也给家里小孩 带点。"李女士笑着说，"在超市买这些可能要上百，这里50元左右就搞定了，划算！" 当被问及春节是否歇业时，一位店员摇头道："我们春节都不休息，照常营业。"她解释道，虽然很多深 圳人回老家了，但留下来过年的年轻人也不少，"而且走亲访友、朋友聚会，零食需求还是很大的。" 据了解，目前，国内量贩零食行业已形成稳定的双强竞争格局。其中，万辰集团（300972）旗下拥 有"好想来""老婆大人"等品牌。而鸣鸣很忙则拥有"零食很忙""赵一鸣"等品牌。 记者走进位于南山区大学城的一家零食有鸣门店，发现春节期间最受欢迎的"春节零食大礼包"已售罄， 货架上也有一些空空的感觉。营业员告诉记者："春节零食大礼包早就卖完了，这几天生意特别好，都 是准备返乡过年的年轻人，来买些路上吃的，或者带回去当年货。" 财报显示，万辰集团披露的2025年度业绩预告显示，公司全年营收预计突破500亿元大关， ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Snack Retail Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the snack retail industry, particularly the leading companies, Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, which have entered a cost reduction and efficiency improvement phase since 2025 [2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Profit Margin Improvement**: Both companies have seen significant profit margin increases, with Mingming Hen Mang's margin rising by 1.5-1.6 percentage points and Wancheng Group's by nearly 2 percentage points, primarily due to supply chain restructuring and optimization of consumer scenarios [2][3]. - **Factors Driving Gross Margin Increase**: - Increased retail scale leading to lower procurement prices [6]. - Higher proportion of private label products, which now exceeds 10% [6]. - Increased rebates from upstream suppliers since 2025 [6]. - Enhanced logistics and distribution efficiency, reducing transportation costs [6]. - **Cost Reduction**: The decrease in expense ratios is linked to reduced subsidies for new stores and gross profit for franchisees, although gross margin improvement remains the main driver of profit margin growth [5][7]. - **Future Profit Margin Trends**: The trend of profit margin improvement is expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly reduced rate compared to 2025, driven by declining procurement prices for second and third-tier brands and an increase in private label product share [8][10]. Competitive Landscape - The snack retail industry currently has a stable competitive landscape with only two major players, both of which had over 20,000 stores by the end of 2025. This rapid expansion provides ample motivation and time for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [9][10]. - The industry is characterized by a significant performance elasticity, with potential growth rates exceeding 50% in the short term [14]. Long-term Growth Potential - Long-term expansion depends on available store opening space and the ability to sustain same-store sales growth. Both companies have substantial expansion potential in their respective stronghold regions and are beginning to enter first-tier cities [11]. - Same-store sales growth has been under pressure, with Mingming Hen Mang experiencing a slight decline in 2025. However, improvements are noted in the latter half of the year due to store upgrades and enhanced digital membership operations [12][13]. Importance of Digital Membership Operations - Digital private membership operations are crucial for long-term growth in the chain retail sector. By establishing a digital membership system, companies can better understand consumer needs, optimize product offerings, and enhance operational efficiency [13]. Conclusion - The snack retail industry is poised for continued growth driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a focus on enhancing same-store sales through digital membership strategies and store optimization. The competitive landscape remains favorable for the leading companies, providing a solid foundation for future expansion and profitability [14][16].

多位受访人士分析指出，今年以来，港股新股市场"零破发"的背后，是短期市场情绪、定价策略以及政策层面等多重因素共同作用的结果。短期 市场情绪来看，投资者心态积极转变，为市场注入了活力；发行方谨慎务实合理定价，为新股上市后的表现预留了空间；基石投资者机制等也在 稳定股价方面发挥了关键作用。 港股新股首日"零破发" 2月11日，智能装备企业先导智能登陆港股。上市首日，公司股价开盘上涨1%，尽管尾盘股价一度下探至发行价以下，但随后快速拉升，最终守 住发行价，收盘未出现破发。先导智能的表现是近期新股市场的一个写照。Wind数据显示，今年以来已有22只新股在港股上市，且这些新股在 上市首日无一破发。与之形成鲜明对比的是，在2025年12月，25只新股上市首日竟有10只出现破发。 在今年登陆港股市场的新股阵营里，大模型公司MiniMax上市首日涨幅高达109.09%，在一众新股中脱颖而出，成为涨幅之冠。港股"钓鱼装备第 一股"乐欣户外上市首日的涨幅也达到102.29%，仅次于MiniMax。此外，AI芯片企业壁仞科技、量贩零食龙头鸣鸣很忙、集成电路企业澜起科技 等上市首日的涨幅不低，均在60%以上。 今年在港股市场上市的新 ...

临近春节假期，国内消费板块在估值底部与复苏环境下迎来久违的反弹。 值得注意的是，A股宠物龙头公司中宠股份1月30日发布的《关于回购股份事项前十大股东和前十大无 限售条件股东持股情况的公告》显示，截至1月23日，知名基金经理谢治宇管理的兴全合润、兴全合宜 以及基金经理乔迁管理的兴全商业模式优选、兴全新视野，均新进成为公司前十大股东。按该股1月23 日收盘价计算，四只基金合计持股市值超8亿元。 早在2025年四季度，部分知名主动权益基金经理以及"固收+"基金经理就已经开始"埋伏"消费板块。部 分机构提示，市场对今年物价修复水平存在分歧，而物价温和回升是市场的一致预期，若今年实质性政 策继续推出，有望带动物价水平明显改善，消费板块弹性值得重视。 兴全组队增持中宠股份 中宠股份披露的公告显示，截至1月23日，谢治宇管理的兴全合润、兴全合宜，乔迁管理的兴全商业模 式优选、兴全新视野四只基金分别持有中宠股份643.14万股、373.18万股、356.69万股、275.68万股，均 位列前十大股东。按照1月23日中宠股份的收盘价估算，谢治宇、乔迁管理的基金分别持有中宠股份的 市值达5.03亿元和3.13亿元，合计超8亿元。 ...

发布时间：2026-02-10 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 213.97 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）1.89 / 1.68 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）404 / 359 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 228.12 / 79.56 | | 资产负债率(%) | 79.9% | | 市盈率 | 124.81 | | 第一大股东 | 福建含羞草农业开发有 | | 限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 万辰集团（300972.SZ) 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 业绩预告利润率上限超预期，单店拐点延续向上 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，2025 年公司整体营收 500-528 亿元， 同比增长 54.66%-63.32%，其中 2025Q4 实现营收 134.38-1 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2026-02-10 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 213.97 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）1.89 / 1.68 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）404 / 359 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 228.12 / 79.56 | | 资产负债率(%) | 79.9% | | 市盈率 | 124.81 | | 第一大股东 | 福建含羞草农业开发有 | | 限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 万辰集团（300972.SZ) 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 业绩预告利润率上限超预期，单店拐点延续向上 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，2025 年公司整体营收 500-528 亿元， 同比增长 54.66%-63.32%，其中 2025Q4 实现营收 134.38-1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company "Ming Ming Hen Mang" has successfully positioned itself in the consumer market by focusing on low-cost, high-quality products and efficient supply chain management, achieving significant growth during the Chinese New Year consumption peak [3][27]. Group 1: Market Strategy and Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 46.371 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.559 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 200% over three years [3][27]. - The brand has established over 20,000 stores across China, focusing on community and town locations to cater to the needs of the lower-tier market [7][30]. - The company has built a comprehensive terminal network that meets the core demands of convenience and high cost-performance in the lower-tier market [7][30]. Group 2: Supply Chain Efficiency - The company has implemented a "direct connection with manufacturers and large-scale procurement" model, eliminating intermediaries and achieving a price advantage of approximately 25% compared to offline supermarkets [8][32]. - It has established 36 intelligent warehousing and logistics centers covering over 700,000 square meters, ensuring nationwide delivery within 24 hours [8][32]. - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of 3.028 billion yuan and a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.189 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, providing solid support for marketing and supply chain upgrades [8][32]. Group 3: User-Centric Approach - The company has developed a user value system that encompasses product development, service experience, and marketing interaction, creating a comprehensive consumer experience [12][36]. - It launched popular products for the Spring Festival, including nut gift boxes and zodiac-themed snacks, with a notable product achieving sales of 960 million pieces in the first nine months of 2025 [12][36]. - The company has implemented standardized service protocols across its stores, enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty [12][36]. Group 4: Brand Positioning and Cultural Engagement - The brand has successfully created a youthful and trendy image through precise positioning and innovative marketing strategies, resonating with consumer emotions [18][42]. - Collaborations with popular IPs and cultural elements have helped the brand become a cultural symbol during the Spring Festival, aligning with the growing trend of "intangible cultural heritage consumption" [18][42]. - The company has seen a significant increase in foot traffic and membership consumption during the Spring Festival, indicating strong market appeal [20][44]. Conclusion - The success of "Ming Ming Hen Mang" during the 2025 Spring Festival reflects its strategic advantages and the evolving trends in the Chinese consumer market, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer needs and continuous innovation [23][47].

Core Viewpoint - The listing of "Mingming Hen Mang" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is seen as a signal of the peak for the bulk snack industry, indicating that the competitive landscape has reached a critical point where scale becomes a significant barrier to entry for other players [3][4][24]. Industry Analysis - The bulk snack retail sector is characterized by a "scale competition" where larger players like "Mingming Hen Mang" (with over 20,000 stores) dominate through purchasing power and pricing strategies, making it difficult for smaller regional brands to compete effectively [4][24]. - The dynamics of the market suggest that as companies grow, they gain not only lower procurement costs but also the ability to define product offerings, leading to a situation where price reductions by competitors inadvertently reinforce the market position of larger players [4][25]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is moving towards a dual oligopoly, where the competition is not just about speed or scale but about strategic direction, with smaller players needing to rethink their approaches to survive [26]. - Regional brands like "Dai Yonghong" are struggling as they focus on local preferences while larger brands emphasize price certainty, leading to a shift in consumer expectations [27][28]. Strategic Directions for Regional Players - Regional companies are encouraged to pivot away from direct price competition and explore three strategic paths: 1. Transition from "snack stores" to "city-level curators," focusing on local tastes and unique offerings rather than competing on price [30][31]. 2. Shift towards short-shelf-life, made-to-order products that are harder for large-scale operations to replicate, thus creating a niche market [33]. 3. Acknowledge market boundaries and aim to become a long-term fixture within a community, fostering strong local relationships and customer loyalty [35]. Market Characteristics in Hunan - Hunan is identified as a fertile ground for new consumption models due to its high frequency of snack purchases, strong community store presence, and a culture that embraces scaling from small businesses to larger chains [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the snack wholesale industry [3]. Core Insights - The snack wholesale industry is characterized by a "hard discount" retail model that significantly reduces prices compared to traditional supermarkets, achieving approximately 25% lower prices [4][6]. - The industry is rapidly penetrating lower-tier markets, taking over market share from traditional small shops and outdated supermarkets [4]. - The core competitive advantage lies in a flat supply chain and digital management capabilities, which drastically reduce markup rates [4]. - Future developments will see the evolution from snack stores to comprehensive "community discount supermarkets," expanding into various product categories [4][41]. Summary by Sections Industry Definition - The snack wholesale industry is a vertical "hard discount" retail format that revolutionizes traditional snack sales through efficient supply chain management and direct procurement [5][7]. Business Model - The business model focuses on "high turnover, low margin," creating a win-win ecosystem by connecting suppliers and consumers through efficient operations [12][13]. Industry History - The industry has evolved through four stages: exploration (2010-2020), expansion (2021-2022), integration (2023-2024), and quality growth (2025-present), with competition shifting from price wars to value wars [10][11]. Demand Analysis - The retail market for snacks and beverages in China is projected to grow from 3,171.2 billion yuan in 2019 to 4,044.9 billion yuan by 2024, with the snack wholesale channel experiencing a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% [32][34]. - Lower-tier cities are expected to be the main growth drivers for the snack wholesale market, contributing 62% of GMV [34]. Future Opportunities - The industry is set to deepen its penetration into lower-tier markets, leveraging the combination of brand and low prices to capture market share from traditional retailers [41]. - The transition from "snack stores" to "community discount supermarkets" will create new growth opportunities by meeting community shopping needs [42]. - The focus on private label products will enhance profit margins as companies develop their own brands [44]. Supply Chain Efficiency - The industry's core competitiveness is rooted in a streamlined supply chain, which significantly lowers costs compared to traditional retail formats [45].