证券研究报告 | 2025 年 11 月 07 日 制作：产品中心 《固收|2025 经济收官答卷如何书写？——宏观数据预测专题》 1、工业增加值：预计 10 月当月同比为 5.5%。10 月生产 PMI 较前值下降 2.2pct 至 49.7%，位于荣枯线以下，采购量指数降至 49.0%，显示生产积极 性边际回落，预计 10 月工增环比可能低于季节性，10 月工业增加值同比 增速为 5.5%。往后展望，高技术制造和消费相关制造有望维持韧性，但考 虑到四季度政策效果可能边际减弱，叠加地产偏弱和出口后劲不足的影 响，预计四季度工业增加值同比为 5.3%。2、贸易：预计 10 月出口当月 同比 3.0%，进口当月同比 3.0%。预计 10 月进口环比负增，同比增长 3.0%， 预计四季度进口维持韧性，全年进口增速或小幅转正。3、通胀：预计 10 月 CPI 当月同比持平，PPI 当月同比-2.2%。CPI 方面，10 月猪价继续探底， 重点监测蔬菜平均批发价和农产品价格指数较上月回升，预计 10 月 CPI 同比基本持平，四季度 CPI 同比约 0.3%。PPI 方面，10 月南华工业品价格 指数回落，煤炭、钢铁 ...

电影《阿飞正传》中说有一种传说中的"无脚鸟"，它没有脚，只能不停地飞翔，飞累了就睡在风中，一 生只能下地一次，那就是死亡的时候。这种需要一直向前、不断更快向前的生存之道在互联网创业时代 十分常见，特别是在具有网络效应需要通过烧钱来占领市场的大消费赛道，但近几年随着市场降温，创 投资金出手正变得越来越谨慎，市场更加关注于自造血能力，这让一边快速扩张还能一边保持盈利的量 贩零食代表鸣鸣很忙成功跑了出来，那么鸣鸣很忙有哪些不同？依靠什么实现不烧钱的快速扩张？还能 继续跑多远？ 突出的长板和短板 弗若斯特沙利文数据显示，2024年中国休闲食品饮料零售行业的市场规模已达3.7万亿元，预计到2029 年将增至4.9万亿元。自2017年零食很忙成立的8年以来，量贩零食行业可谓是跑马圈地的草莽时代，也 是存在大量供给缺口的黄金时代，这个阶段对于企业来说唯一需要做的就是快速开店，并且不同于其他 烧钱扩张的行业，大量的需求带动下，量贩零食行业的快速扩张是伴随着盈利增长的，规模扩张并不会 带来现金流压力，这在长期习惯了烧钱的消费赛道上，备受资本欢迎。 作为国内量贩零食的头部公司，鸣鸣很忙的长短板都很明显，长板方面，鸣鸣很忙无论是开 ...

Core Insights - The company, Mingming Hen Mang, submitted updated listing application materials to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing strong financial performance and market leadership [1][3] - As of June 30, 2025, the company achieved a retail sales (GMV) of 41.1 billion RMB, with revenue of 28.12 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 1.034 billion RMB [1] - The total number of stores reached 16,783, maintaining its position as the industry leader, and it is the first in the sector to surpass 20,000 stores according to Frost & Sullivan [1][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a cash balance exceeding 2.394 billion RMB and net current assets of 2.827 billion RMB as of June 30, 2025 [3] - For the first half of 2025, the operating cash flow net amount was 1.395 billion RMB, indicating robust cash generation capabilities [3] - The inventory turnover days were only 11.7 days, reflecting efficient asset management and supply chain operations [3] Market Position - Mingming Hen Mang is recognized as one of China's largest leisure food and beverage retail chains, integrating its dual brands "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" to enhance operational efficiency [3] - The company ranked among the top 10 in the 2024 China Chain Industry, being the only bulk snack enterprise in that list [3] - The updated prospectus is seen as a routine step in the Hong Kong IPO process, with expectations for a successful listing due to the company's scale, operational quality, and growth momentum [3]

Core Viewpoint - Mingming Hen Mang Group, a leading player in the snack retail industry, has shown rapid growth in performance, driven by its low-price strategy, but faces challenges in establishing a stable supply chain and developing high-margin private label products for long-term profitability [1][6][9] Group 1: Company Performance - As of June 30, 2023, Mingming Hen Mang Group has 16,783 stores, with 99.9% being franchise stores [1][3] - The company achieved a GMV of 41.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing an 86.9% increase year-on-year [3] - Revenue for the first half of 2023 reached 28.124 billion yuan, up 86.5% from the previous year, while adjusted net profit was approximately 1.035 billion yuan, a 265.5% increase [3][6] - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203% in revenue and 234.6% in adjusted net profit from 2022 to 2024 [6] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Mingming Hen Mang Group is the largest chain retailer in the domestic market for leisure food and beverages, according to data from Frost & Sullivan [3] - Approximately 58% of the company's stores are located in county towns and rural areas, covering 1,327 counties [4] - The average price of the company's products is about 25% lower than similar products in offline supermarket channels, contributing to its competitive edge [6] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges related to rising rental, labor, and logistics costs, which impact its low gross margin [7] - The reliance on a franchise model poses risks, especially in a competitive market that is transitioning from rapid expansion to more refined operations [8] - Analysts suggest that the company must focus on supply chain efficiency and the development of high-margin private label products to ensure long-term profitability [9]

Core Insights - Mingming Hen Mang Group, a leading player in the snack retail industry, has updated its prospectus, reporting a rapid growth in performance and a significant increase in store count [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of June 30, 2023, Mingming Hen Mang Group has 16,783 stores, with 99.9% being franchise stores [2]. - The company achieved a GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) of 41.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing an 86.9% increase year-on-year [2]. - Revenue for the first half of 2023 reached 28.124 billion yuan, up 86.5% compared to the same period last year, while adjusted net profit was approximately 1.035 billion yuan, reflecting a 265.5% increase [2]. - The company has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 203% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, with adjusted net profit growing at a CAGR of 234.6% during the same period [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Mingming Hen Mang Group is recognized as the largest chain retailer in the domestic market for leisure food and beverages, according to international consulting firm Frost & Sullivan [2]. - The company offers a wide range of products, with 3,605 SKUs in stock as of June 30, 2023, of which approximately 25% are custom products developed in collaboration with manufacturers [2]. - The average price of the company's products is about 25% lower than similar products in offline supermarket channels, contributing to its competitive pricing strategy [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces challenges related to rising costs in rent, labor, and logistics, which impact its profit margins [5]. - The snack retail industry is entering a more competitive phase, requiring companies to focus on supply chain efficiency and the development of high-margin proprietary products for long-term profitability [7]. - Analysts suggest that the company must avoid over-reliance on the franchise model and focus on brand establishment and product expansion to succeed in the evolving market landscape [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the title of "first stock of bulk snacks" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is intensifying, with leading companies like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group actively pursuing their listing applications [1][2]. Company Performance - Mingming Hen Mang reported a revenue of 281.24 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 85.6%. The adjusted net profit reached 10.35 billion yuan, up 265.5% from the previous year [3][4]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the brand "Snacks Hen Mang" generated 117.96 billion yuan, while "Zhao Yiming Snacks" contributed 163.33 billion yuan in the same period [4]. Growth Strategy - The company's growth strategy is centered around "low-price attraction and store expansion." As of the end of 2024, Mingming Hen Mang's average prices were approximately 25% lower than similar products in offline supermarket channels, attracting over 1.6 billion consumer visits [5]. - The company has expanded its store network significantly, with 16,783 stores as of June 2025, including 7,594 under "Snacks Hen Mang" and 9,189 under "Zhao Yiming Snacks" [5]. Competitive Landscape - Both Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group are engaged in fierce competition for market share, focusing on store numbers and regional coverage. As of September 2025, Mingming Hen Mang had over 20,000 stores, while Wancheng Group had 15,365 stores [13]. - Wancheng Group has also announced plans for further expansion, including a significant acquisition to enhance its competitive position [13]. Industry Challenges - Despite rapid growth, challenges such as slowing store expansion rates and increasing closure rates are emerging. The monthly average growth of new stores has slightly declined, and the closure rates for franchise stores have increased [8][11]. - Both companies operate in a low-margin environment, with marketing expenses rising, which compresses profit margins. Mingming Hen Mang's gross margins have remained low, ranging from 7.5% to 9.3% from 2022 to mid-2025 [11][12]. Market Implications - The race for the "first stock" title is not just about market positioning but also about securing investor confidence and resources. The successful listing could enhance brand recognition and attract more resources [15][16]. - The listing will provide a market valuation benchmark for the bulk snack industry, influencing the overall market dynamics and investor perceptions [17].

Core Insights - Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Mingming Hen Mang") submitted updated listing application materials to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showing strong financial performance and growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Mingming Hen Mang achieved a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of 41.1 billion RMB and revenue of 28.12 billion RMB for the first half of the year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.034 billion RMB [1] - The company reported a cash balance exceeding 2.394 billion RMB and a net current asset value of 2.827 billion RMB, indicating a strong financial structure [1] - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 1.395 billion RMB, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities [1] - Inventory turnover days were only 11.7 days, significantly better than the industry average, highlighting efficient supply chain management [1] Growth and Expansion - By September 2025, Mingming Hen Mang became the first company in the industry to exceed 20,000 stores, with a total of 16,783 stores covering 28 provinces, 1,327 counties, and all tiered cities in China [1] - The company’s GMV for 2024 was reported at 55.5 billion RMB, with the number of stores reaching 14,394 [1] Industry Position - Mingming Hen Mang is recognized as one of the top 10 companies in the Chinese retail chain industry for 2024, being the only representative from the bulk snack sector [2] - The company integrates its dual brands "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" to enhance supply chain and operational efficiency through standardized operations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong financial performance and growth trajectory of Hunan Mingming Henbang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Mingming Henbang") as it prepares for its IPO in Hong Kong [1][2] - As of June 30, 2025, Mingming Henbang achieved a GMV of 41.1 billion RMB and a revenue of 28.12 billion RMB, with a net profit of 1.034 billion RMB for the first half of the year [1] - The company operates 16,783 stores across 28 provinces, 1,327 counties, and all tiered cities in China, indicating extensive market coverage [1] Group 2 - The updated prospectus shows that as of June 30, 2025, Mingming Henbang had a cash balance exceeding 2.394 billion RMB and a net current asset value of 2.827 billion RMB, reflecting a strong financial structure [1] - The operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 1.395 billion RMB, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities [1] - The inventory turnover days were only 11.7 days, significantly better than the industry average, showcasing efficient supply chain management [1] Group 3 - Mingming Henbang has integrated its dual brands "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" to enhance operational efficiency and supply chain management through a unified organizational structure [2] - The company ranks among the top 10 in China's retail chain industry as of 2024, being the only representative from the bulk snack sector [2] - The recent update to the prospectus is a routine step in the IPO process, with high expectations for the company's listing in Hong Kong due to its popularity in the consumer sector [2]

Core Insights - The company "Ming Ming Hen Mang" has submitted updated listing application materials to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing strong financial performance and market leadership [1][4] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company achieved a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of 41.1 billion RMB and revenue of 28.12 billion RMB for the first half of the year, with an adjusted net profit of 1.034 billion RMB [1] - The company reported a cash balance exceeding 2.394 billion RMB and net current assets of 2.827 billion RMB at the end of June 2025, indicating robust financial health [4] - The net operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 1.395 billion RMB, with inventory turnover days at just 11.7 days, reflecting efficient asset management [4] Market Position - The company has become the first in the industry to surpass 20,000 stores as of September this year, solidifying its market-leading position [1] - It ranks among the top 10 in the Chinese retail industry for 2024, being the only bulk snack enterprise in that list, according to the China Chain Store & Franchise Association [4] Strategic Operations - The integration of the "Snack Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yi Ming Snacks" brands has enhanced the company's operational and management systems, leading to improved supply chain and operational efficiency [4] - The company is expected to attract significant interest for its Hong Kong IPO due to its leading scale, solid operational quality, and continuous growth momentum [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth of the bulk snack industry in China, which is projected to reach nearly 130 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 3.3% of the 4 trillion yuan snack and beverage retail market, with a growth rate exceeding 100% [5][6]. - The analysis focuses on the competitive dynamics between two major players, Mingming and Wancheng, and their operational strategies as channel merchants in the retail landscape [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bulk snack industry has significantly altered the retail channel structure in China, driven by a strong underlying logic and competitive forces [5][6]. - Mingming and Wancheng have emerged as the industry duopoly, capturing 42.7% and 32.8% of the market share respectively in 2024, with GMV figures of 555 billion yuan and 426 billion yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Operational Performance - In 2024, Mingming's GMV, revenue, order volume, and store count were 555 billion yuan, 393 billion yuan, 1.6 billion orders, and 14,400 stores, while Wancheng reported 426 billion yuan, 318 billion yuan, 1.2 billion orders, and 14,200 stores [15][22]. - Mingming's inventory turnover days were 11.6 days, while Wancheng's were 17.6 days, indicating a more efficient inventory management system for Mingming [15][16]. Group 3: Value Chain Analysis - The value chain distribution for Mingming in 2024 was 65.4% for suppliers, 5.4% for brand merchants, and 29.2% for franchisees, compared to Wancheng's 66.5%, 8.1%, and 25.4% respectively [15][27]. - Wancheng's suppliers received a higher share of the value chain in 2023, with 71.1% compared to Mingming's 62.1%, suggesting a more favorable commercial environment for suppliers working with Wancheng [17][27]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The article suggests that the bulk snack industry has the potential for continued growth, with a projected market size of 200 to 300 billion yuan and a possible market share for Mingming exceeding 60% [37][38]. - The potential for expansion into small goods retail, similar to the model of Miniso, is highlighted as a strategic avenue for growth, leveraging existing retail capabilities [37][38].