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波司登(03998):品牌引领积势蓄能,降温加码旺季销售
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-22 10:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Bosideng's main brand is experiencing high-quality growth, with expectations for strong sales during the peak season [7] - The company is focusing on brand building and differentiated channel operations, including the launch of new products at Paris Fashion Week and the opening of a new concept store in Shanghai [7] - Financial forecasts indicate steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 25.9 billion yuan in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for FY2024A is projected at 23,214, increasing to 25,902 in FY2025A, 28,512 in FY2026E, 31,420 in FY2027E, and 34,626 in FY2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to grow from 3,074 in FY2024A to 3,514 in FY2025A, 3,938 in FY2026E, 4,393 in FY2027E, and 4,897 in FY2028E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% [1] - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.27 yuan for FY2024A, increasing to 0.30 yuan in FY2025A, 0.34 yuan in FY2026E, 0.38 yuan in FY2027E, and 0.42 yuan in FY2028E [1] Operational Insights - The main brand's revenue for FY2025 is projected at 21.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [7] - The report notes a significant increase in wholesale and self-operated business revenues, with wholesale up by 24.3% and self-operated by 5.2% [7] - The company has added 253 retail outlets, bringing the total to 3,470 by the end of FY2025 [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY2025 is expected to be 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale and OEM business [7] - The net profit margin for FY2025 is projected to be 13.6%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 39.82 billion yuan, indicating a healthy financial position [7]