Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the second-hand market prices of Labubu series blind boxes from Pop Mart has sparked widespread discussion, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment and market dynamics [1][3][12]. Group 1: Price Decline in Second-Hand Market - The average price of the Labubu "Sitting Party" plush series, originally priced at 594 yuan, has dropped from over 1400 yuan in July to around 630 yuan currently [3]. - The minimum transaction price for single blind boxes, originally priced at 99 yuan, has fallen to as low as 60 yuan, below the original price [3]. - Hidden variant prices have also plummeted, with one variant dropping from 46,000 yuan to approximately 480 yuan, a decline of over 98% [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Sentiment - The increase in the number of Labubu listings on platforms like Xianyu, coupled with a decrease in transaction prices, suggests a cooling off in the market, with 68% of users predicting further price declines [6][10]. - Promotional strategies, including discounts of up to 50% and "buy one get one free" offers, have been implemented for older products, with some unsold items priced as low as 29 yuan [8]. - Some resellers are reportedly halting purchases of Labubu products, with losses exceeding 100,000 yuan in a single day for some, and inventory accumulation reaching over one million yuan [8]. Group 3: Company Growth and Future Outlook - Labubu, a flagship IP of Pop Mart, achieved over 100 million units sold in 2023, marking it as the fastest-growing IP for the company [9]. - The monthly production capacity of Labubu has increased from 10 million to 50 million units to meet market demand, which is believed to be a primary factor contributing to the price collapse in the second-hand market [9]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth to a phase of sustainable growth, with revenue growth for Labubu expected to slow significantly by 2026 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand market prices for Labubu series blind boxes from Pop Mart have significantly dropped, leading to widespread discussion and concern about the brand's future and pricing strategy [1][3]. Price Decline - The price of the Labubu "Sitting Party" plush series, originally priced at 594 yuan, peaked at over 1400 yuan in July but has now fallen to around 630 yuan; single blind boxes that sold for 99 yuan are now trading as low as 60 yuan, below the original price [3]. - Hidden variants of Labubu have also seen drastic price reductions, with one variant dropping from 46,000 yuan to approximately 480 yuan, a decline of over 98% [5]. Market Dynamics - The number of Labubu listings on platforms like Xianyu has increased, but the average transaction price has decreased to 83.5 yuan since June [5]. - Discount promotions in physical stores, including 50% off and "buy one get one free" offers, have been observed, with some unsold items priced as low as 29 yuan [7]. Company Performance - Labubu, a key IP for Pop Mart, achieved over 100 million units sold in 2023, making it the fastest-growing IP for the company [8]. - The company's stock price has dropped over 40% from a high of 339.8 HKD in August to 190.8 HKD by December 30, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 200 billion HKD [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth to a phase of sustainable growth, with revenue growth for Labubu expected to slow significantly by 2026 [11]. - The increase in monthly production capacity from 10 million to 50 million units is viewed as a primary factor contributing to the collapse of second-hand market prices, indicating a potential risk to the brand's perceived scarcity and desirability [8].