灰色地带战术

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美国狠割25%关税,日本却力挺反华,台海统一进入倒计时!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 12:50
Group 1 - The core argument of the article revolves around Japan's recent defense white paper, which highlights a significant military spending disparity between China and Taiwan, with China's military budget at 1.6 trillion RMB, 17 times that of Taiwan's 93 billion RMB [3][19][21] - Japan's defense white paper, spanning 534 pages, marks a historical record for the Japanese Ministry of Defense and expresses deep concerns regarding China's military activities [3][11] - The report introduces the concept of "gray zone" tactics, which Japan defines as strategies that can achieve victory without direct conflict, such as regular patrols and military exercises that pressure Taiwan [5][24] Group 2 - Japan faces its own economic challenges, including a recent 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Japanese products, complicating its military alignment with Washington [7][11] - The article suggests that Japan is attempting to leverage the U.S.-China rivalry to expand its military capabilities, which have been historically constrained since World War II [11][17] - The dynamics of U.S.-China relations are portrayed as complex, with both nations recognizing the high costs of direct confrontation, leading to a potential search for a balance rather than an escalation of conflict [16][17] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is heavily tilted in favor of China, with Taiwan's military capabilities stagnating while China's military budget continues to grow, particularly in advanced technologies [21][22] - Japan's defense assessments indicate a growing concern that China is developing strategies to incapacitate Taiwan without a direct invasion, which could lead to a "de facto unification" of Taiwan under Chinese control [26][30] - The narrative suggests that Japan's portrayal of a "Taiwan crisis" is driven by its own geopolitical ambitions and a desire to interfere in regional matters, despite the changing dynamics of global power [37][39]
美西方又盯上中国深海活动,亮出了这“三板斧”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-06-07 01:48
Core Points - The report by researchers from the University of Melbourne accuses Chinese manufacturers of dominating the construction of underwater infrastructure, posing a threat to its safety [1][3] - The report suggests that countries in the Indo-Pacific region should enhance the resilience of underwater infrastructure and collaborate on data security through the "Quad" security dialogue mechanism [1][3] Group 1: Underwater Infrastructure and Resilience - The concept of "resilience" in underwater infrastructure primarily refers to strengthening the resilience of submarine cables to prevent secondary or tertiary impacts from cable damage [4] - Historical examples, such as the UK's "All-Red Line" policy in 1901, illustrate the importance of protecting underwater cables for national strategic and commercial interests [5] - The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC) are set to establish a consulting body for submarine cable resilience by December 2024 [5] Group 2: Western Criticism and "Gray Zone Tactics" - Western think tanks have consistently criticized China's deep-sea activities, often labeling them as having malicious intent, linking them to potential damage to underwater infrastructure [3][6] - The term "gray zone tactics" refers to coercive activities that fall between peace and armed conflict, including the destruction of underwater cables and pipelines [7][9] - Recent incidents involving underwater cable disruptions have been attributed to Chinese vessels, despite investigations indicating these were accidental events [10][11] Group 3: International Cooperation and Non-State Entities - The protection of underwater infrastructure is primarily the responsibility of state actors, yet non-state entities, such as private companies, play a significant role in cable laying and investment [14][15] - The International Cable Protection Committee serves as a platform for dialogue between government and non-state entities, although many key national government agencies are not members [17][19] - The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea outlines the rights of countries to lay submarine cables, but the enforcement of these rights often lacks clarity regarding non-state actors [12][16] Group 4: China's Role and Legal Framework - China has stringent laws against the destruction of underwater cables, with penalties significantly harsher than those in other countries [11] - The international legal framework primarily addresses state responsibilities, leaving gaps in accountability for non-state actors involved in cable damage [16] - The article emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach to underwater infrastructure protection, advocating for consensus among nations and non-state entities [20]