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中信证券:预计美联储将在10月和12月议息会议上分别再次降息25bps
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 00:28
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 aligns with market expectations, indicating a risk management approach focused on mitigating employment market downturn risks [1] - The dot plot shows a revised target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining the forecasts for inflation and unemployment rates unchanged [1] - The expectation of an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts this year is consistent with prior predictions, with further cuts anticipated in the October and December meetings [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, the market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior in U.S. Treasuries, while U.S. stocks showed a "catch-up" characteristic, with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performing well [1] - It is suggested to downplay the guidance on next year's interest rate path from this meeting, with expectations that the U.S. dollar may remain weak during this round of rate cuts, while gold is expected to perform well [1]