Report Title - PTA&PX承压于高库存，聚酯分化格局抑制反弹 [1] Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA and PX are pressured by high inventories, and the differentiated pattern of polyester restrains the rebound. The supply pressure of PX and PTA is increasing, while the demand is weak, and the inventory of PTA is accumulating, which may lead to the continued weakening of their prices. The polyester industry shows a differentiated pattern, with low inventory of filament supporting price resilience and high inventory of staple fiber having回调 pressure [1][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA&PX**: On October 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,588.0 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -103.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,570.0 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -10.0 yuan/ton. The cost support of PX is weakening, the supply pressure is increasing, the demand for PTA is lack of elasticity, and the inventory is accumulating [2][3] - **Polyester**: On October 30, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,268.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 97.0 yuan/ton. The terminal textile demand is weakening, the inventory of polyester filament is significantly lower than the average level in the past five years, while the inventory of polyester staple fiber is higher than the average level in the past five years. It is expected that the industrial chain will maintain the cost-driven logic in the short term, but the decline in demand may limit the increase of PTA, the low inventory of filament may support price resilience, and the high inventory of staple fiber may have回调 pressure [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.96%, the trading volume increased by 5.96%, and the open interest increased by 1.54%. The spot price of PX in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 0.13%. The basis of PX increased by 48.76% [5] - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 1.42%, the trading volume increased by 28.41%, and the open interest increased by 0.40%. The spot price of PTA in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged. The basis of PTA increased by 89.58%, the 1-5 spread decreased by 15.38%, the 5-9 spread decreased by 22.22%, and the 9-1 spread increased by 17.14%. The import profit of PTA increased by 2.40% [5] - **Short Fiber**: The main contract price of short fiber futures decreased by 1.02%, the trading volume increased by 16.07%, and the open interest decreased by 8.18%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.08%. The basis of PF increased by 60.82%, the 1-5 spread decreased by 600.00%, the 5-9 spread remained unchanged, and the 9-1 spread increased by 50.00% [5] - **Other Products**: The price of the Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.42%, the price of the WTI crude oil main contract decreased by 0.12%, the price of CFR Japanese naphtha increased by 0.26%, the price of ethylene glycol remained unchanged, the price of polyester chips remained unchanged, the price of polyester bottle chips decreased by 0.35%, the price of polyester POY remained unchanged, the price of polyester DTY remained unchanged, and the price of polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - **Processing Spreads**: The processing spread of naphtha increased by 3.13%, the processing spread of PX decreased by 0.61%, the processing spread of PTA increased by 14.20%, the processing spread of polyester chips decreased by 17.64%, the processing spread of polyester bottle chips decreased by 11.18%, the processing spread of polyester short fiber decreased by 35.59%, the processing spread of polyester POY decreased by 18.60%, the processing spread of polyester DTY decreased by 9.94%, and the processing spread of polyester FDY decreased by 4.60% [6] - **Light Textile City Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of the Light Textile City increased by 9.60%, the trading volume of long fiber fabrics increased by 10.00%, and the trading volume of short fiber fabrics increased by 8.72% [6] - **Industrial Chain Load Rates**: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [6] - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of polyester short fiber increased by 0.97%, the inventory days of polyester POY decreased by 27.97%, the inventory days of polyester FDY decreased by 16.44%, and the inventory days of polyester DTY decreased by 16.95% [6] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Macroeconomic Dynamics**: On October 30, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and hinted at a pause in rate cuts. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ended the balance sheet reduction on December 1, and there were serious differences among officials regarding the December policy. Middle Eastern Gulf countries collectively announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. On October 29, Citibank lowered the short-term price targets for gold and silver. Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was either incompetent or bad and would leave his position in "a few months" [7] - **Supply and Demand - Demand**: On October 29, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 708.0 million meters, a month-on-month decrease of 3.01%, with a trading volume of 560.0 million meters for long fiber fabrics and 149.0 million meters for short fiber fabrics [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts on PX and PTA futures, spot prices, basis, processing spreads, industrial chain load rates, inventory days, and Light Textile City trading volumes [9][11][13][15][17][19][22][23][27][28][30] 3.5 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - Supply-side: PX and PTA may face increased supply pressure, and the decline in crude oil prices reduces costs. Demand-side: Affected by downstream polyester and terminal textiles, demand is weak. Inventory-side: PTA factory inventories are accumulating. These factors may lead to the continued weakening of PX and PTA prices [35][36]

报告日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 欧洲央行将存款利率维持在 2.000%不变，维持主要再融资利率在 2.15%不变，将 边际贷款利率维持在 2.400%不变。商务部介绍中美经贸磋商成果共识时提到， 美方取消对华商品加征 10%所谓芬太尼关税，美方加征 24%关税继续暂停一年； 美方暂停实施出口管制 50%穿透性规则一年；美方暂停对华海事等 301 调查一年； 中方将与美方妥善解决 TikTok 问题。国内期货夜盘收盘多数下跌。乙二醇、铁 矿石等跌超 1%，短纤、PTA 等小幅下跌；苯乙烯、焦煤等小幅上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、铜、原油 贵金属：近期金银连续回调，昨夜出现反弹。本周美联储降息 25 个基点，并将 于 12 月 1 日结束量化紧缩，但市场已经计价较为充分。会后鲍威尔表态偏鹰， 表示 9 月和 10 月的降息是风险管理式降息，并给 12 月降息预期降温。以俄乌为 代表的地缘政治风险有所降温。最新一轮中美会谈就解决各自关切的安排达成基 本共识，中美领导人会面。美国政府"停摆"仍在持续发酵，市场缺乏更多经济 数据的指引。白银现货端的挤兑有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank has maintained its three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2.0%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4% [1] Economic News - The Eurozone's GDP for Q3 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2%, outperforming market expectations. However, there is a growing divergence in performance among member countries, with France's GDP growing by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, marking the fastest growth rate in 2023, while Germany's GDP remained flat, continuing a 14-quarter period of low performance [5] Domestic News - The consensus from the recent China-U.S. economic talks revealed that the U.S. will cancel the 10% tariff on Chinese goods related to fentanyl and will continue to suspend the 24% tariff for another year. Additionally, the U.S. will pause the implementation of export control rules and investigations related to maritime and logistics for one year, while China will adjust or suspend corresponding countermeasures [6] Industry News - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, significantly supporting key areas and projects, with an expected total investment boost of over 7 trillion yuan. The focus of these tools includes technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [7] Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Recent declines in gold and silver prices have been followed by a rebound. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week and end quantitative tightening by December 1. However, market expectations for a December rate cut have cooled following hawkish comments from Powell. Geopolitical risks have eased, and central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [2][17] Copper - Copper prices fell in the overnight market, with tight supply of concentrates and smelting profits at breakeven. However, smelting output continues to grow. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates positive growth in power grid investment, while real estate remains weak. A mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a global copper supply gap, supporting prices in the long term [3][18] Oil - The SC night market saw a decline of 0.24%. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries with quotas in September was 23.87 million barrels, an increase of 760,000 barrels from August, exceeding their target by 940,000 barrels. Saudi Arabia's daily oil supply was 9.98 million barrels, also up from August, aligning with targets [12] Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping below 4000 points. The market's trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 11.587 billion yuan, indicating a potential for continued liquidity in the domestic market [10]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve executed its second interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4% [3][4] - The Fed announced it will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, marking a significant shift in its liquidity management policy [4][5] - Fed Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" move rather than a "relief" operation, indicating a cautious approach due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4][6] Interest Rate Cut and Balance Sheet Reduction - The FOMC's decision to cut rates is the fifth reduction since September 2024, reflecting ongoing concerns about the labor market and inflation [3][4] - The Fed's total assets have been reduced from approximately $9 trillion to about $6.6 trillion during the quantitative tightening period [5] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the Nasdaq rising by 0.55%, indicating mixed market sentiment [6] - The dollar index rose sharply, while the yield on two-year Treasury bonds increased by about 10 basis points [6] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding future rate cuts, with expectations that the Fed may continue to lower rates in response to economic conditions [7][9] - Powell's comments suggest significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the outlook [8][9] Economic Data and Uncertainty - The ongoing government shutdown has led to delays in the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4][9] - Despite inflation concerns, the focus has shifted to employment issues, with predictions of continued rate cuts into 2026 [9]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in October, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%[2] - The Fed shifted its focus from employment market slowdown risks to inflationary pressures in its economic outlook[2] - Future rate cut prospects remain highly uncertain, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion"[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing but remaining low[4] - Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and is considered somewhat elevated, indicating ongoing inflationary concerns[5] - The Fed plans to halt the reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, which may signal a shift in monetary policy approach[5] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Sensitivity - The Fed's risk management approach now prioritizes inflation risks over employment market risks, reflecting a dynamic assessment of economic conditions[6] - AI-related capital expenditures are noted to be less sensitive to interest rates, potentially mitigating the impact of rising rates on the economy[9] - The cumulative rate cuts of 150 basis points, combined with the cessation of balance sheet reduction, may lead to a perception that price tools are sufficiently accommodative for current economic risks[8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with significant divergence among officials regarding future policy direction [1] - Powell emphasized that the December rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating a cautious approach among officials due to data uncertainty [1] - The Fed's recent rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, distinguishing the current AI boom from the previous internet bubble [1] Group 2: Commodity Markets - Gold prices fell by 0.56% to $3930.61 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 1.1% to $47.57 per ounce [1] - Oil prices rebounded after a decline, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.27% to $60.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.70% to $64.20 per barrel, following a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories [1] Group 3: Sanctions and Global Markets - The U.S. announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two oil companies [1] Group 4: Company Milestones - Nvidia became the first company globally to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and announced to end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. The market had largely priced in these moves, and Fed Chair Powell's post - meeting remarks were hawkish, suggesting that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][2][7]. - Against the backdrop of the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, and increased global confrontation, central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings. However, due to the weakening of driving factors, precious metals have experienced continuous adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The domestic stock market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points. With the expected continuation of a loose domestic liquidity environment and the potential inflow of external funds, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. Inflation remains high, and the risk of employment decline has increased. Powell said a December rate cut is not certain [1][7]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [8]. - **Industry News**: The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold reserves in the first six months of the current fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has nearly doubled compared to four years ago [9]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - Different overseas market varieties showed various trends. For example, the S&P 500 was almost flat, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.68%, and London gold fell 0.56% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate cut and the expected loose domestic liquidity environment are conducive to the inflow of funds into the stock market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced. The stock index is expected to continue rising in the short term [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bond futures prices are supported by the central bank's monetary policy and the expected reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. However, the hawkish remarks on the December rate cut by Powell have led to a rise in US bond yields [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Although geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil prices, the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian oil transportation and unclear market trends [14]. - **Methanol**: The operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin and methanol plants has declined. Coastal methanol inventories have increased slightly, and the market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply pressure may increase as the rubber - tapping season progresses, but short - term trends are expected to be strong due to expected smooth progress in China - US trade negotiations and the Fed's rate cut [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures showed a rebound, but glass futures fell at night. The domestic market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals have been adjusting after the Fed's rate cut. Although the long - term narrative of gold as a safe - haven asset is strengthening, short - term driving factors have weakened, leading to price adjustments [2][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has rebounded, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. The domestic zinc price may be weaker than the overseas price [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level at night. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported. The market is expected to be strong in the short term [22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil futures showed a weak trend at night. The expected increase in palm oil inventory and supply - side pressure are suppressing the short - term market [25]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The domestic sugar price is affected by import profits but may be supported by the upcoming new - season crushing [26]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures continued to oscillate strongly. The new - cotton purchase is in full swing, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong [27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated strongly. Some shipping companies have adjusted their freight rates downward. The market is in the traditional peak - season price - holding period, and there may be room for price increases [28].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts, impacting gold prices negatively. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Spot gold prices experienced a brief rise to $4007.47 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's decision but subsequently fell to $3930.42 per ounce, a drop of $77 [1] - As of Thursday morning, gold prices further declined to $3916.32 per ounce [2] - The overall decline in gold prices was nearly 0.6% by the end of Wednesday, despite an intraday increase of up to 2% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75%-4%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 in favor of the rate cut and indicated the end of quantitative tightening by December 1 [3] - The statement highlighted concerns about the labor market and inflation, noting that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [3] Group 3: Powell's Hawkish Stance - Powell indicated significant internal disagreement within the FOMC regarding future rate cuts, stating that further cuts are not guaranteed [4] - Following Powell's comments, the implied probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from 95% to 67.9%, a decrease of nearly 30 percentage points [4] - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials reflects ongoing tensions between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment [4][5] Group 4: Market Analysts' Perspectives - Analysts have noted that the market's reaction to Powell's comments is justified, as the reduction in rate cut expectations will likely strengthen the dollar and suppress gold prices [6] - The tension within the Fed regarding inflation and interest rates has led to a cooling of market expectations for December rate cuts [7]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on October 29, with a closing price of $3993.00 per ounce after reaching a high of $4030.36 and a low of $3913.43 [1] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate was set at 4%, aligning with market expectations, down from the previous 4.25% [3] - The FOMC statement indicated a split among members regarding future rate cuts, with some supporting a 50 basis point cut while others preferred to maintain the current rate [3][4] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the decision for a December rate cut is not guaranteed and highlighted significant uncertainty due to a lack of government data [4][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is estimated at 67.8%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 32.2% [5] Gold Market Dynamics - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 2.87 tons, bringing the total to 1036.05 tons [5] - Gold prices are currently in a downtrend since peaking at $4381, with short-term indicators suggesting a bearish outlook [9] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategies include cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for both aggressive and conservative traders [10]

Group 1 - UK inflation remained unexpectedly stable in September, with CPI rising 3.8% year-on-year, matching the previous value and falling below market expectations of 4% [1] - Core CPI for September increased by 3.5% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 3.6% and market expectations of 3.7% [1] - The stable inflation has led traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, with the market now expecting a 17 basis point cut by the end of December, equating to a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The two-year UK government bond yield fell by 10 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since August 2024, influenced by the rising expectations of rate cuts [4] - The British pound depreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar, trading at 1.3320 [4] Group 3 - The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August, the highest level since May 2021, contrary to expectations of stability [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed to 4.4%, below market expectations and marking the lowest level since the end of 2021, although still above the Bank of England's target of around 3% [5] - Bank of England Governor Bailey expressed concerns about the economy operating below potential and the ongoing weakness in the labor market [6]