智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美联储2025年9月议息会议降息25bps，符合市场预期。鲍威 尔表示这是一次风险管理式降息，在双重使命中偏向控制就业市场下行风险。本次点阵图显示今年目标 利率中枢为3.6%，低于6月显示的3.9%，同时上调今年美国经济增速预测，维持今年美国通胀和失业率 预测不变。点阵图指引年内还有50bps降息符合预期，依旧预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分 别再次降息25bps。等到新任美联储主席的最终人选落地后，2026年利率路径才会更加清晰。 市场方面，降息落地后美债再现"买预期+卖事实"、美股"补涨"特征依旧，道指和小盘股表现较好。建 议相对淡化此次会议对明年利率路径的指引，预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态、预计黄金 仍有不错表现。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2025年9月美联储议息会议声明要点： 1)利率工具方面，委员会决定降息25bps，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调至4.00-4.25%，符合市场预 期。此次利率决议未得到一致同意，临时理事米兰投票支持降息50bps。 2)资产负债表方面，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美国国债每月赎回上限为50亿美元、机构债务和M ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 aligns with market expectations, indicating a risk management approach focused on mitigating employment market downturn risks [1] - The dot plot shows a revised target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining the forecasts for inflation and unemployment rates unchanged [1] - The expectation of an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts this year is consistent with prior predictions, with further cuts anticipated in the October and December meetings [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, the market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior in U.S. Treasuries, while U.S. stocks showed a "catch-up" characteristic, with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performing well [1] - It is suggested to downplay the guidance on next year's interest rate path from this meeting, with expectations that the U.S. dollar may remain weak during this round of rate cuts, while gold is expected to perform well [1]