Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 25, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded significantly, but the gains narrowed. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil generally increased. The steel futures market may show an oscillating rebound in the future, but its strength is weaker than that of the stock index. It needs to wait for the stock index to reach its peak to change the current lukewarm market pattern. [7][9][11] - The coking coal market ended its nearly one-and-a-half-year downward trend in July 2025, with both futures and spot prices rebounding from the bottom. There may still be a phased upward trend in August, but price increases may be limited. [13] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook for the Future 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On August 25, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets generally increased. The prices of rebar in Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Shenyang and other cities rose by 30 - 40 yuan/ton. [9] - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts showed a differentiated trend. The J and K values turned up, while the D value continued to decline. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar 2510 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD green bars of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract began to narrow. [9] 1.2 Outlook for the Future - News: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September; the coal and coke market turned up significantly due to expectations of strengthened safety inspections after the Fujian coal mine accident. [10][11] - Fundamentals: The weekly output of the five major steel products has increased for four consecutive weeks, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the social inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks to a new high since mid-May. The weekly apparent demand has increased after six consecutive weeks of decline. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output remains above 2.4 million tons per day. [11] - Financial Market: The domestic A-share market continued to rise, which may attract some futures market funds to the stock market, but also help boost the prices of coal, coke, steel, and ore commodities. [11] 2. Industry News - National Energy Administration: As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. [12] - China Iron and Steel Association: In mid-August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 400,000 tons. [12] - Company Performance: New Steel Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 111 million yuan in the first half of 2025, turning a profit year-on-year; Xinji Energy Co., Ltd. had a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 920 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72%. [12] - Coking Coal Market: In July 2025, the coking coal market ended its downward trend, and the market showed a pattern of "three leading rises, one decline, and one stability". There may still be a phased upward trend in August, but price increases may be limited. [13] - Customs Data: In July 2025, China's coal imports increased by 7.8% month-on-month to 35.609 million tons. [14] - US Anti-dumping Ruling: The US Department of Commerce ruled that if the current anti-dumping measures against carbon steel alloy wire rods imported from China are cancelled, the dumping margin of Chinese products will reach 110.25%. [14] - Steel Production Data: In July 2025, the global crude steel output was 150 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; Japan's crude steel output was 6.918 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.1%. [14] - VLCC Freight: As of August 24, 2025, the VLCC TCE increased by 31.7% week-on-week to $45,800 per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. [14] 3. Data Overview - The report provides charts on the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, factory and social inventories, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, daily average pig iron output, and apparent consumption of five major steel products, among others. [17][19][20]