黑色建材周报 | 2025-10-12 供需双弱延续，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 截止本周五收盘，螺纹钢主力合约2601收于3103元/吨，热卷主力合约2601收于3285元/吨。 供应方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.54万吨，环比上周减少0.27万吨，同比去年增加8.46万吨。 本期五大材实际产量863.31万吨，环比减少3.76万吨；其中，螺纹产量203.4万吨，环比减少3.62万吨；热卷产量323.29 万吨，环比减少1.4万吨。 消费方面：Mysteel数据显示，本期五大材表需总量为735.45万吨，环比减少169.37万吨。其中，螺纹钢表需146.01 万吨，环比减少95.06万吨；热卷表需290.09万吨，环比减少33.64万吨。 库存方面：Mysteel数据显示，本周五大钢材品种的总库存量达到1600.72万吨，环比增加127.86万。本周螺纹钢库 存659.64万吨，周环比增加57.39万吨；热轧卷板总库存量为412.9万吨，周环比增加19.02万吨。 综合来看，建材产量继续回落，库存累库幅度高于往年，下游补库需求明显减弱，需求无明显好转，旺季需求高 度有限，关注节后下游 ...

研究所 旺季持续累库 热卷压力较大 ----国信期货热卷周报 2025年10月12日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 1.1 热卷主力合约走势 本周热卷主力合约短线窄幅震荡，延续弱势。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 现货弱势震荡。 1.2 热卷现货走势 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 品类 数值 01基差 64 05基差 69 10基差 -20 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 ...

| | | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。 长假期间螺纹表需大幅下滑，同比依然偏弱，产量小幅回落，库存大幅累积。热卷需求同步下滑，产量小 幅回落，库存大幅累积。铁水产量维持高位，下游承接能力不足，随着钢厂利润下滑，产业链负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游 行业看，9月PMI回升至49.8，制造业边际企稳，长假期间地产销售降幅扩大，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位，外围加 征关税带来一定扰动。盘面持续调整后稍有企稳，反弹动能依然不足，短期震荡为主，关注节后需求回暖力度。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面上涨。 供应端，全球发运环比下降，国内到港量反弹，港口库存增加，其中巴西矿增加较为明显，短期市场对于 供应受到扰动的担忧有所增加。需求端，铁水高位存在韧性，钢厂盈利率继续走弱，国庆前后钢厂存在一定补库需求，但随着 钢厂利润的收缩，以及国内需求依然处于相对低位，未来减产的压力逐步增加。国内10月将要召开重要会议，市场仍然存在一 定政策预期，但对外贸易摩擦的不确定性也依然存在。我们预计铁矿短期高位震荡为主。 | MILIA | FREE STATE | beer in the real and AM | | --- | --- | ...

黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 68TE | 3159 | 0 | HC05-RB05 | 133 | 134 | -1 | | RB10 | 3019 | 3020 | -1 | HC10-RB10 | 387 | 350 | 37 | | RB01 | 3103 | 3096 | 7 | HC01-RB01 | 182 | 190 | -8 | | RB01-RB05 | -56 | -63 | 7 | RB10-RB01 | -84 | -76 | -8 | | RB05-RB10 | 140 | 139 | 1 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -130 | -119 | -10 | RB05/105 | 4.08 | 4.10 ...

Report Date - The report is dated October 10, 2025 [1] Steel Industry Core View - Yesterday's upward movement in the steel futures market was a rebound driven by events and macro - optimistic sentiment, lacking fundamental support. With the core supply - demand contradiction unresolved, upward resistance is significant, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, but the impact of favorable macro - policies should be watched [3] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up from 3096 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3285 yuan/ton, down slightly from 3286 yuan/ton on October 9 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The aggregated rebar price in China on October 10 was 3262 yuan/ton, up from 3257 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai remained at 3350 yuan/ton [7][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 56 yuan/ton, up from - 63 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month spread remained at - 7 yuan/ton [4] Iron Ore Industry Core View - With the seasonal recovery of terminal demand, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and continuous supply - side disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to show an "easily rising and hard - falling" trend in the short term [19] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 795 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [20] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Rizhao PB powder on October 10 was 789 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [20] Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on October 10 was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 327 tons, down 9.4 tons from the previous week [23] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Core View - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies. The winter storage this year is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coking coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel [29] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: The coking coal 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 98 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the coke 01 - 05 month spread was - 152.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [33] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal on October 10 was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34] Ferroalloy Industry Core View - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five - year historical period, while demand has not improved significantly during the peak season. There is a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Cost factors and capital outflows also affect prices [43] Price Data - **Silicon Iron**: On October 10, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from the previous day [44] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on October 10 was 270 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day [48] Soda Ash Industry Core View - Market sentiment fluctuations increase soda ash price volatility. With the second - phase ignition of Yuanxing, future supply pressure persists. The supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, although exports have alleviated some domestic pressure [57] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1332 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day [58] - **Spot Prices**: The heavy - soda market price in North China on October 10 was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61] Glass Industry Core View - High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and weak real - world demand limit glass prices. The supply - demand pattern in the near - term is one of strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and inventory factors [85] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day [86] - **Spot Prices**: The basis of the glass 05 contract in Shahe on October 10 was - 99 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan from the previous day [86]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251010 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙、何天 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：加沙停火协议落地，A 股站上 3900 点 海外方面，美国政府关门僵局依旧未解，参议院第七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁永久削 减民主党项目，美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据。以美联储官员分 歧加剧：巴尔主张谨慎降息，警惕通胀仍快；威廉姆斯则称经济未衰退、支持年内再降息， 目前市场仍定价年内、明年各降息 2 次。美元指数走高至 99.5，美债利率震荡，美股低迷收 跌，以色列批准加沙停火协议，金价迎来调整，油价收跌，铜价受矿山供应中断催化继续上 涨。 国内方面，节后首个交易日股债双红，上证指数站上 3900 点继续创下十年新高，两市 成交额 2.67 万亿、超 3100 只个股收涨，科创 50、沪深 300 相对占优，贵金属、有色、发电 设备板块领涨，预计股市短期仍将结构性震荡上涨，同时关注监管降温信号。假期人均消费 偏弱、地产成交量能低迷，资金面偏松+弱现实下债市小幅上涨，10Y、30Y 利率下行至 ...

| 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3230 | 10 | 144 | | 3200 | 10 | 114 | | 3310 | 10 | 224 | | 螺纹钢05合约 螺纹钢10合约 | 3159 3020 | 3128 2989 | 31 31 | 81 220 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3096 | 3072 | 24 | 144 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3350 | 3330 | 20 | 64 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | ব | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3310 | 10 | -50 | | | 热券05合约 | 3293 | 3259 | 34 | 64 | | | 热卷10合约 | 3370 | 3384 | -14 | -20 | | 热卷01合约 成本和利润 | 以年44円円 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3096元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3286元/吨。现货方面，根据钢联数据显示，螺纹产量203.4 万吨，环比减少3.62万吨；总库存659.64万吨，增加57.39万吨。热卷产量323.29万吨，环比减少1.4万吨；总库存329.3 万吨，环比增加29.92万吨。昨日，全国建材成交11.99万吨。 市场弱现实持续，钢材价格震荡运行 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 供需与逻辑：建材：传统旺季过半，终端需求表现仍较弱，高库存暂未缓解，弱现实压制价格底部震荡。板材： 假期后首个工作日，板材价格相对稳定，供需格局维持下，消费韧性持续。短期来看，成材基本面矛盾暂无改变， 高铁水下成本支撑仍在，关注临近会议对盘面带动作用及后续供需格局改变。 钢材：市场弱现实持续，钢材价格震荡运行 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅上涨。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格持涨运行，贸易商 报价积极性一般，钢厂采购多 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，原料端短线偏强，整体 维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | | 整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，或维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 国庆期间铁水产量微降，维持高位。钢厂消耗库存为主，节后部分钢厂有补库需求。基 | | ★ | 多单持有 | 本面偏中性。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观层面 | | | | "反内卷"与月底重要会议预期偏强，提振市场情绪。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第一轮提涨已落地，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 产量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 煤矿整体产量处于回升状态 ...

钢矿月度报告2025-10 淡旺季转换在即，黑色或维持弱势运行 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢 | 价格 | 现货延续下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | | 供给 | 高炉开工先跌后升，电炉产量继续回落 | | | 库存 | 建材去库速度较慢，板材库存超预期累积 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比回升，板材内需弱外需强 | | 材 | 利润 | 成材原料双双下跌，利润继续收缩 | | | 基差 | 基差大幅走扩，正套全部离场 | | | 总结 | 9月高炉开工先跌后涨，铁水产量下滑，电炉减产明显，整体供应环比收紧；分品种来看，电炉减产明显，螺纹产量下滑，热卷增产；需求方面，终端 螺纹需求环比回升，制造业主动压缩原材料库存，板类内需仍然偏弱；库存来看，建材总库存去库速度偏慢，板材超预期累库。目前黑色供应环比回 升，需求预计逐渐 ...