投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-12-29 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 震 荡 企 稳 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 盘 面 震 荡 运 行 ， 第 四 轮 提 降 博 弈 增 加 03 01 PART ONE 钢材 铁矿石 钢材：震荡企稳，等待新驱动 铁 水 存 在 企 稳 迹 象 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 铁水产量降幅收窄，本周+0.0 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 终端延续弱势 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 钢材周报 一、交易数据 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：1-11月份，全国房地产开发投资78591亿元， 同比下降15.9%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积656066 万平方米，同比下降9.6%。房屋新开工面积53457万平 方米，下降20.5%。房屋竣工面积39454万平方米，下降 18.0%。新建商品房销售面积78702万平方米，同比下降 7.8%。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量182万吨，环比增加3万吨，表需 209万吨，增加6万吨，厂库140万吨，减少1万吨， ...

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 3 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：12月2日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 3167 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Steel**: The demand for five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, improving compared to October, but the overall demand intensity in November is weaker than the same period last year. Due to significant production cuts, the supply - demand gap for rebar is favorable with good de - stocking. However, for hot - rolled coils, production cuts are limited, with supply and demand basically balanced and slow de - stocking of high inventories. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the January contract is expected to converge. Considering the seasonal weakening of future demand and high plate inventories, the upward price drive is not obvious, but production cuts support steel prices, so prices are expected to fluctuate. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. The basis of rebar will strengthen, while that of hot - rolled coils is weak, and the spread between them will continue to converge. There is an arbitrage opportunity of going long on rebar and short on iron ore for the January contract [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated at a high level. The global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, iron water production decreased, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. The production of five major steel products continued to rise, inventories continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand declined. Port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, iron water production will decline seasonally this week, and the inventory contradiction of steel mills has improved significantly. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. It is recommended to wait and see when the discount is repaired [4]. - **Coke**: Last week, coke futures fluctuated and declined. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase, steel mills proposed a first - round price cut. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, coking profits were repaired, coke price adjustments lagged behind coking coal, coke enterprises increased prices, and coke production increased after price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, iron water production declined, steel prices fluctuated weakly, steel mill profits decreased, and there was a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills increased inventories, ports decreased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position, with the supply - demand situation of coke weakening. Coke futures were dragged down by the sharp decline of coking coal futures. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1500 - 1650 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot market accelerated its decline, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, some coal mines stopped production, the import of Mongolian coal increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, steel mills increased losses and maintenance, iron water production declined, coke production increased slightly after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coke enterprises reduced inventories, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1000 - 1120 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 17 yuan/ton to 3110 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Spot prices in East and South China remained unchanged or increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts all rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton, the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar remained unchanged at 3231 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3171 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, the profit of South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and other regional profits remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average iron water production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.2 tons to 10.4 tons, an increase of 12.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 tons to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Carajás fines and Brazilian blended fines [4]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 38.1% for Carajás fines [4]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 2.0%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 50.5, an increase of 1.9%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.0, a decrease of 1.9% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Brazilian blended fines. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 20.0 days [4]. Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.9%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, a decrease of 2.94% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.0 tons to - 3.6 tons, an increase of 55.34% [7]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1067 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1152 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal production increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.9 tons to 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 tons to 801.3 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 294.5 tons, an increase of 1.0% [7].

1. Report Type and Date - The report is a daily steel review dated November 17, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Review 3.1 Futures Market - On November 14, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2601 first declined and then rebounded. The RB2601 contract closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the SS2601 contract closed at 12380 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [5] - In terms of position changes, the long - short position changes of various contracts were different. For example, the long position of RB2601 decreased by 1,147 hands, and the short position decreased by 3,601 hands [6] 3.2 Spot Market - On November 14, the prices of some rebar spot markets rose more than they fell, and the prices of individual hot - rolled coil markets declined. The rebar prices in Nanning, Tianjin, and Jinan rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the rebar price in Changchun fell by 10 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil price in Nanning fell by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Technical Indicators - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2601 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract also had a golden cross. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2601 contract had a golden cross; the green column of the daily MACD of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days and was close to a golden cross [7] 4. Market Outlook - In terms of news, recently, coal supply - guarantee policies have been introduced, and the prices of coke and coking coal futures have declined significantly [8] - Fundamentally, previously, steel mills accelerated production cuts, raw material prices and steel costs declined under pressure, and steel mill profits significantly rebounded. With the concession of coal and coke, the iron ore price has stabilized in recent days, making steel prices relatively resistant to decline. The weekly demand decline of the five major steel products has narrowed, and the production of the five major steel products has continued to decline, leading to a faster reduction in steel social inventory [8][9] - In terms of raw materials, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports in the past 4 weeks decreased by 3.8% month - on - month, but it increased by 11.9% in the previous 4 weeks, and the overall supply of iron ore is still relatively abundant. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined to the lowest level since late March. Although coking plants and steel mills continue to reduce coke inventory, the coke inventory at ports has increased in the past 6 weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded significantly. The coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants and ports have increased by 22.7% and 16.8% respectively compared with the previous lows in August - September [9] - Considering the seasonal weak demand for steel, but with the accumulation of production - cut effects, there is an expectation that supply and demand will reach a new balance. It is expected that steel futures may first decline and then rebound, and the space for further decline is limited. It is advisable to try buying hedging or investment in the large basis range after mid - November, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the spot market and whether subsequent production data can stabilize temporarily [9] 5. Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement to maintain a healthy market competition order [10] - From January to October 2025, the national coke production was 419.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; steel production was 1.21759 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; pig iron production was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [10] - In October 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and the growth rate accelerated by 6.4 percentage points compared with September [10] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%. By industry, the investment in the primary industry was 80.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the investment in the second industry was 1.48411 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; the investment in the third industry was 2.52429 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% [10] - In October 2025, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the crude oil production was 18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the crude oil processing volume was 63.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; the natural gas production was 22.1 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [10] - In October 2025, among 41 major industries, 29 industries had year - on - year growth in added value. The coal mining and washing industry increased by 6.5%, the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 1.9%, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.4% [11] - From January to October 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, domestic loans were 121.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8%; foreign investment was 190 million yuan, a decrease of 37.5%; self - raised funds were 284.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%; deposits and prepayments were 232.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.0%; personal mortgage loans were 108.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% [11] - From January to October 2025, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. At the end of October, the unsold commercial housing area was 756.06 million square meters, a decrease of 3.22 million square meters compared with the end of September [11] - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [11] - In early November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.26 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.926 million tons, a 6.0% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.804 million tons, a 3.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.84 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.884 million tons, a 5.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month [11] - In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.49 million tons, an increase of 860,000 tons or 5.9% compared with the previous ten - day period; an increase of 3.12 million tons or 25.3% compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 390,000 tons or 2.5% compared with the same ten - day period of last month; an increase of 1.83 million tons or 13.4% compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 800,000 tons or 5.4% compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [11] - In early November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.93 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate; an increase of 2.34 million tons or 35.5% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 2 million tons or 28.9% compared with the same period of last year [11] - Shanxi Coking Coal stated on November 14 that it has no layout in the new energy field for the time being [11] - Changyuan Power's wholly - owned subsidiary's 100MW wind farm project in Babao Town, Songzi City, Hubei Province, was approved on November 14. The dynamic total investment of the project is 582.91 million yuan, and the static total investment is 572.5 million yuan [11] - In the week of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased during the fluctuation. As of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons compared with the same period of last week, the same as the same period of last month, and a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the same period of last year [11] - On November 12, the vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association met with the business and development executive vice - president of Vale, and they exchanged views on the operation and demand of the Chinese steel industry, Vale's iron ore production and operation, and the green and low - carbon development of the steel industry [11][12] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for the global oil surplus in 2026 for the sixth consecutive month, expecting the daily supply to exceed demand by about 4 million barrels [12] - In October 2025, India's electricity demand decreased by 5.2% year - on - year due to abnormal rainfall and lower temperatures [12] 6. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, steel mill inventory, social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][19][22][27][32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The supply of iron elements is relatively loose, and the decrease in molten iron production by steel mills has alleviated inventory pressure. The apparent demand for five major steel products is higher than production, and inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory of flat - rolled products is relatively high year - on - year, and the pressure for winter stockpiling is greater than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter. The 1 - month contract for rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has dropped significantly, molten iron production has declined from its peak, and the restocking demand of steel mills is weak. The inventory pressure has increased. The previous macro - positive factors have been digested, and the decline in iron ore prices, molten iron production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The spot market has a third - round price increase, and there is still an expectation of further increases. On the supply side, the rebound in coking coal prices provides cost support, and the loss of coke production has narrowed after the price increase. On the demand side, environmental restrictions and the decline in molten iron production have suppressed the price increase. The overall inventory is slightly increasing, and the supply is tight. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a divergence between futures and spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines are resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase, but the recovery is limited. On the demand side, the restocking demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing, and downstream is actively restocking. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the short - term, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3220 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3304 to 3272 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 3305 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 10.0 tons to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 tons to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 tons to 602.5 tons, a 3.1% decrease [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3 (the value in the report is incomplete), a 5.4% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 tons to 916.4 tons, a 2.7% increase [2]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 835.9 to 829.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 - contract for various powders increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons to 3218.4 tons, a 58.6% increase. The global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons to 3213.8 tons, a 5.2% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons to 6604.6 tons, a 5.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 171.6 tons to 14714.08 tons, a 1.2% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 43 to 1729 yuan/ton, a 2.4% decrease [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 tons to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 tons to 59.9 tons, a 2.1% increase [7]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 32 to 1253 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease [7]. Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 tons to 851.8 tons, a 0.4% increase. The clean coal production increased by 1.5 tons to 434.9 tons, a 0.3% increase [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 tons to 81.1 tons, a 10.2% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, a 2.2% increase [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "shockingly weak" [3] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic strong policy expectations pulse boost low - valued commodity prices, causing significant disturbances to the market. Due to holiday restocking, steel supply and demand improved this week with continuous inventory reduction, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure during the holiday. Considering the seasonal weakening of steel demand later, supply needs to be suppressed to relieve future inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory and raw material cost support [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Price and Spread - The rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2601 closed at 3301 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - On September 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 242.36 million tons, a 1.34 - million - ton increase from the previous week and a 17.50 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 39.40 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [1][22] Consumption - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous period. Building material consumption increased by 3.4%, and plate consumption increased by 2.5% [1][26] Inventory - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 864.93 million tons, a 9.47 - million - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.1%. The total inventory was 1510.61 million tons, a 9.13 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decrease of 0.6%. The apparent consumption was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous week [1][30] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is "shockingly weak", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products increased compared to the previous week, and the inventory changed from an increase to a decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased week-on-week, while that for hot-rolled coils decreased. Seasonally, the week-on-week rebound of rebar demand is in line with expectations and is likely the high or second-high point for the second half of the year, but the current demand remains weak, suggesting limited improvement in the future. The inventory shows a pattern of "decreasing rebar and increasing hot-rolled coils," and all products are in a state of super-seasonal inventory accumulation. High supply exerts pressure on the market, but high molten iron production and pre-holiday raw material restocking support costs. However, post-holiday restocking may weaken, and continuous super-seasonal inventory accumulation could lead to negative feedback and production cuts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly range for the 01 contract of rebar is 3000 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.63% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot-rolled coils, the range is 3200 - 3500, with a volatility of 11.11% and a percentile of 9.72% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory, sell rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2501 at 3150 - 3200 and 30% for HC2501 at 3350 - 3400) to lock in profits. Also, sell call options (20% for RB2601C3400 at 35 - 45) to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2601 and HC2601 at 3050 - 3100 and 3250 - 3300) to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (20% for RB2601P3000 at 50 - 60) to collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, rebar futures prices decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract closing at 3114 (-53). Spot prices also declined, e.g., the national average was 3288 (-18). Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices also fell, with the 01 contract closing at 3313 (-45) and the Shanghai spot price at 3370 (-30) [7]. - **Overseas Data**: Hot-rolled coil FOB export prices in China, Japan, India, etc., decreased slightly week-on-week. CFR import prices in some regions also declined [8]. - **Spreads**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread was -57 (+1), and the hot-rolled coil 10 - 01 month spread was 82 (+20). The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Shanghai was 130 (-30) [8]. - **Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 3.93 (+0.0136), and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 1.84 (+0.04) [9]. - **Seasonal Data**: Various seasonal charts are provided, including rebar and hot-rolled coil basis, month spreads, and profit margins [10][11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the volume and open interest increased. The supply of rebar continued to shrink while the demand rebounded from a low level, but the downstream situation did not improve, and the strength of the peak season was still in doubt. With cost increase as a relative positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the volume and open interest increased. The demand for hot-rolled coil showed weakening resilience, while the supply remained at a high level, the supply-demand pattern was weakening, and the inventory increased again. With cost increase and production restrictions as relative positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.12%, the volume increased and the open interest decreased. Supported by pre-holiday stockpiling, the ore price remained at a high level, but the demand resilience was weakening, and the supply was increasing. The fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.0% - 4.25%, releasing a loose signal to cope with economic downside risks [8]. - In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The production of tractors showed different trends, with large, medium, and small tractors having different year - on - year changes [9]. - In August 2025, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In August, China exported 163 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 51.0%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 1.225 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.2% [10]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,210 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 8 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,400 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,445 yuan, down 12 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,040 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.60 yuan, unchanged; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.98 yuan, up 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.45 yuan, down 0.27 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.60 yuan, down 0.30 yuan [11]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,147 yuan, with a decline of 0.25%, the highest price was 3,176 yuan, the lowest price was 3,123 yuan, the trading volume was 1,727,718 lots, an increase of 485,624 lots, and the open interest was 1,999,684 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots [15]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,354 yuan, with a decline of 0.89%, the highest price was 3,400 yuan, the lowest price was 3,345 yuan, the trading volume was 661,851 lots, an increase of 160,913 lots, and the open interest was 1,412,324 lots, an increase of 20,862 lots [15]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 800.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.12%, the highest price was 809.0 yuan, the lowest price was 797.0 yuan, the trading volume was 308,247 lots, an increase of 53,979 lots, and the open interest was 533,529 lots, a decrease of 936 lots [15]. Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, hot - rolled inventory total (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation [17][24][31] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved with supply contraction and demand rebound, but the downstream situation is still poor, and the peak - season strength is doubtful. With cost increase as a positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weakening with increasing supply and weakening demand. With cost increase and production restrictions as positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, supported by pre - holiday stockpiling, the ore price remains at a high level, but the demand resilience is weakening and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force of the high - valued ore price is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak balance with supply and demand, and the cost still provides support. Next week, steel prices may adjust within a narrow range, and the pattern of repeated ups and downs will continue. The market should be treated as weakly volatile, and patiently wait for opportunities for a bottom - rebound [29]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Market sentiment was average, with the game between long - and short - term factors and fundamentals. This week, steel prices showed a volatile downward trend, and the price center of gravity shifted down compared with last week. The national average price of rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire decreased by 9 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in the Northeast region, all other regions declined slightly, with a decline ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2][3] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, supporting the construction of world - class city clusters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, and the total issuance of local government bonds was 670.36 billion yuan. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. In mid - August 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased, and the estimated national daily output of steel also increased. As of the week of August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal increased. Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates [5][6] 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94,400 tons, lower than last week's 94,800 tons. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to be weak, downstream terminals purchased on demand, and merchants' willingness to replenish inventory was not strong. The short - term market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [9] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current steel demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term. The increase in construction steel output is expected to slow down. The steel market is in a weak balance, and the cost still provides support. The steel price may adjust within a narrow range next week. From the perspective of the disk, most black commodities closed down, and the iron ore main contract rose slightly. The rebar main contract 2601 showed a downward trend, with the center of gravity shifting down. It should be treated as weakly volatile, waiting for a bottom - rebound opportunity. Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - screw spread, and steel profit, and a wide - straddle consolidation for option strategies [29]