021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：8月25日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 3119 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Hot-rolled coil prices broke through the support level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from August to September. It is recommended to try shorting the October hot-rolled coil contract at 3380 - 3400 [1]. - Currently, steel mill production remains at a high level. Seasonal decline in rebar demand in August has led to an increase in inventory, with production higher than apparent demand. After the previous price increase, funds are betting on a decline in demand in the second half of the year [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover [3]. - Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, the molten iron output in August will decline slightly from the high level, with an average expected to be maintained at around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel mill inventory is increasing, and the restocking demand has weakened. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking demand. There is still an expectation of a seventh round of price increase for coke. The futures price of coke is at a premium to the spot price, providing a hedging opportunity. The cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the previous bullish expectations may have been fully overdrawn [5]. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have returned to stable operation. The previous futures price increase has already factored in the expectation of coal mine production restrictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for speculation and conduct a reverse spread trade for the 9 - 1 contract [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices generally declined. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar widened to around 290 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of various steelmaking processes decreased, and the profits of different regions and varieties also declined [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, while the rebar output decreased slightly. The output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Transaction and Demand - The transaction volume of building materials and the apparent demand of five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract increased. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and the global weekly shipment volume increased significantly, and the monthly national import volume also increased [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly, while the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased, and the number of available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and declined. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased, while the prices of coke increased after the sixth round of price increase and the seventh round of price increase was initiated [5]. Supply - The coke production increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, and the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. The raw coal production decreased slightly, and the clean coal production increased slightly [5]. Demand - The molten iron output increased slightly, and the coke production increased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke remains resilient, but the restocking demand has weakened [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. The coking coal inventory decreased in coking plants and steel mills, increased slightly in ports, and the inventory in coal mines decreased at a slower pace [5].

关注微信公众号 | 石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品番 | 现值 | 前1日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓単成本:卡粉 | 808.8 | 808.8 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 831.5 | 834.8 | -3.3 | -0.4% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 844 0 | 843.8 | 1.1 | 0.1% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 845.6 | 848.9 | -3.2 | -0.4% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 151.0% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 26.0 | 27.3 | -1.3 | -4.7% | 元/吨 | | 09合约基美:巴混粉 | 39.4 | 36.3 | 3.1 | 8.5% | | | 09合约基差:金布巴粉 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 12 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 供应扰动不断，钢矿延续强势 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.96%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 限产预期兑现，力度不及预期，原料再度走强，带动钢价走高，而供需 双增局面下螺纹钢基本面并无实质性好转，钢价仍易承压，上行驱动待 跟踪，预计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏强运行，录得 1.40%日涨幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，供需双弱局面下热卷基本面持续走弱，库存增加且增幅扩大，但现 实矛盾有限，且原料强势上行带来成本支撑，短期走势延续震荡走高态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价强势上行，录得 2.36%日涨幅，主力移仓换月完 成，量仓扩大。现阶段，铁矿石需求虽在走弱，但供应回升不及预期， 基本面平稳运行，且钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，继续给予矿价 支撑，多空因素博弈下预计矿价维持高位震荡态势，关注成材表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨 ...

Price and Basis - Absolute prices have significantly increased, while the basis has weakened, with futures outperforming spot prices. The current spot price for rebar in East China is 3100 yuan, with futures at a premium of 33 yuan per ton; hot-rolled coil spot price is 3310 yuan, with futures at a discount of 37 yuan per ton. The 10-1 month price spread has weakened, with rebar at -28 yuan and hot-rolled coil at -7 yuan [1] - Recent market sentiment improvement has led to price increases, boosting spot market sentiment and increasing trade volume. Futures traders are primarily engaging in arbitrage and establishing long positions [1] Supply and Demand - July production continues to decline, with an overall decrease of 90,000 tons from the May peak, including a reduction of 50,000 tons in molten iron and a decrease of 40,000 tons in scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is 2.398 million tons, with scrap steel consumption stable at 505,000 tons. The total production of the five major materials has decreased by 124,400 tons to 8.72 million tons; rebar production is down by 40,000 tons to 2.167 million tons, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 50,000 tons to 3.232 million tons [2] - Demand for the five major materials remains stable at high levels, with a decrease in demand of 12,200 tons to 8.73 million tons in the current period. The production and demand gap has narrowed in June and July, with hot-rolled coil production exceeding demand, while rebar production is slightly below demand [2] Inventory - Recent production has fluctuated with demand, leading to inventory trends that are less than expected for the off-season. Current inventory of the five major materials has decreased by 3,500 tons to 13.4 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 50,000 tons to 5.4 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory has increased by 6,000 tons to 3.457 million tons. The supply and demand for rebar have both decreased, maintaining a downward inventory trend, while hot-rolled coil has seen a slight increase in inventory [2] Market Sentiment and Strategy - Steel price fluctuations have intensified, with significant increases in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices, and a weakening basis. The recent stabilization of black metal prices began in June due to environmental inspections leading to reduced coking coal production. Improved market sentiment has driven a broad increase in commodity prices, with expectations from the "urban renewal" work meeting stimulating domestic demand [3] - The current market conditions suggest that while there is a low inventory and improved market sentiment supporting valuation recovery, actual demand elasticity remains limited. The next macro observation window is the political bureau meeting at the end of July. Current price levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil are being monitored for potential breakout points at 3100 yuan and 3300 yuan, respectively, with resistance levels at 3220 yuan and 3350 yuan [3]

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of steel has shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the basis is expected to weaken due to approaching off-season and inventory nearing accumulation inflection point [1] - The demand for five major steel products is expected to continue its downward trend, with a decrease of 14,000 tons to 868 million tons [2] - Steel inventory is nearing the accumulation inflection point, with total inventory decreasing by 9,000 tons to 1,354 million tons, while plate materials have entered a clear accumulation phase [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - The production of steel is showing a high-level decline, with a slight decrease in molten iron output, while finished product reductions are significant [1] - The production of iron elements has increased by 15 million tons year-on-year from January to May, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons [1] - The current reduction in production is mainly reflected in rebar, while hot-rolled steel has not seen significant reductions [1] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost side shows that coking coal inventory continues to accumulate, with supply unlikely to shrink, leading to weak support for carbon element costs [1] - The current profitability ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [1] - The price of rebar has fallen below both electric furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in significant reductions in rebar production [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel price has shown signs of weakness after a brief rebound, with expectations of continued weak demand due to the suspension of national subsidies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel appliances [3] - The strategy for the week includes holding short positions on hot-rolled and rebar, with attention to whether previous lows of 3,000 and 2,900 can be broken [4]

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2024 年 5 月 22 日 数据来源：上期所、大商所网站，建信期货研究发展部 1.1 现货市场动态与技术面走势： 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：5月21日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | ...