高盛闭门会-美国关键矿产战略和政策解读，关键瓶颈在电 力铝极度短缺 20260227 摘要 美国关键矿产政策转向国际合作，通过部长级会议等形式，强调"全面 市场方法"和"全供应链视角"，旨在与盟友及伙伴协同，保障美国工 业基础与国防体系安全供给。 VOLT 项目旨在通过公私合作建立关键矿产储备，企业预付款采购，贸 易机构管理，参考美国地质调查局清单筛选矿种。与国家国防储备和战 略石油储备相比，VOLT 更偏向私营部门主导的商业参与模式。 边境调节价格机制旨在阻止低价进口，将成本转嫁给下游买家，由美国 贸易代表办公室牵头谈判。关键在于避免需求萎缩，推动主要制造业经 济体实施相似机制，并确保监管框架不允许低标准产品绕道进入市场。 国防授权法案的 DEFY 条款限制从特定外国实体采购稀土永磁材料，国 防承包商需在 2027 年前满足要求。稀土元素与永磁材料仍是本届政府 的重点领域。 美国铝行业面临挑战，原铝产量仅能满足需求的 16.16%。即使密苏里 冶炼厂重启，仍将面临缺口。钢铁领域贸易政策可作为主要解决方案， 铝领域贸易政策只能作为部分解决方案，核心约束在能源。 Q&A 自 2025 年 6 月以来，在 232 ...

黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年03月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：地产预期回暖，钢价小幅上涨 | 2026/2/27 | | 供应（万吨） | | | 需求（万吨） | | 库存 | | | 现货 | 主力 | 05-10 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 233.3 | #N/A | 5.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 废钢 | 14.6 | -13.1 | -36.4 | 30.9 | 0.5 | -17.5 | 564.8 | -92.4 | 15.7 | 2115 | | | | | | ...

➢ 展望3月，进入"两会"期间，市场对"十五五"规划开局之年的稳增长政策存期待，政策预期上存支撑，但下游需 求尚未完全启动，整体处于"供需双弱"格局，库存仍在累积。关注会议结束，现实供需带来的库存去化情况，会 议期间预计震荡运行为主。从钢材基本面看，受春节假期影响，电弧炉产能利用率回落明显，高炉开工率稳中有升。 因螺纹产量有部分来自于电弧炉工艺，导致2月产量回落明显，热卷主要来自于高炉，产量小幅回升。春节期间，需 求端随着大部分工地和工厂放假，需求回落明显，导致厂内和社会库累库明显。随着春节假期结束，下游陆续复工复 产有望带动库存去化，但由于部分工地要到元宵之后，去库拐点有所推迟。 钢材铁矿月度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-02-27 目录 01 后市预判 02 产业动态 03 数据分析 后市研判 PART 01 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 展望3月，铁矿供强需弱，港口库存高位，使得盘面上方承压，但随着"两会"召开，政策情绪面有扰动叠加节后复 工终端需求仍有回补的预期，使得盘面下方有支撑，价格区间震荡运行为主。从基本面看，2月上旬受热带气旋影 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【债券】商业银行大幅增持，非法人类产品持续减持——2026 年 1 月份债券托管量 数据点评 截至 2026 年 1 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合计为 179.31 万亿元，环比净 增 0.76 万亿元，较 2025 年 12 月末环比多增 0.46 万亿元。分品种看托管总量，利率 债、信用债环比净增，金融债、同业存单环比净减。从本月债市各机构对主要券种的 持仓总量来看，配置盘均表现为增配；交易盘中证券公司增配、非法人类产品持续减 配；境外机构持续减配。 行业研究 【房地产】1 月核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14%——光大核心城市房地产销售跟 踪（2026 年 1 月）(增持) 1 月光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交金额为 1,859 亿元，同比-28.7%，成交 均价为 24,285 元/㎡，同比-4.8%。核心 15 城二手房成交面积同比+14.3%，一线城 市成交均价同比-9.8%。2026 开年《求是》集中刊文，明确改善和稳定房地产预期， 随着供给侧逐步出清，优质龙头受益于竞争结构优化，有望实现经营业绩企稳 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,076.00 | +49↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1988709 | -45800↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16404 | +32887↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -37 | +8↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 33097 | -1200↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 160 | -8↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,230.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,313 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,420.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,130.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 154.00 | -4 ...

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The articles highlight the preparations and efforts made by various sectors in Shanghai to ensure a safe and vibrant celebration of the upcoming Lunar New Year, emphasizing the importance of community, culture, and technological advancements in enhancing the festive atmosphere. Group 1: Power Supply and Emergency Services - State Grid Shanghai Electric Power has developed comprehensive power supply plans to ensure safety and reliability during the New Year celebrations, involving 345 teams and 2,529 repair personnel ready for emergency responses [1][8] - The company has stationed 634 power generation vehicles and 240 emergency generators to maintain power supply, ensuring that every household can enjoy a bright and warm reunion [1] Group 2: Cultural and Community Events - The "Over New Year in Fengxian" event features a variety of activities, including traditional banquets and modern consumer experiences, aimed at reviving childhood memories associated with the New Year [5][7] - The "Shining Shanghai" light and shadow exhibition in Jing'an district connects art and culture, enhancing the festive spirit through visual displays that celebrate the city's heritage [3][8] Group 3: Telecommunications and Connectivity - Shanghai Telecom's team is ensuring seamless communication across the city, providing full coverage in key areas such as the Hongqiao hub and tourist zones, allowing families to stay connected during the celebrations [7] - Innovations like AI photo booths and dynamic family portraits in telecom service centers enhance the festive experience, bridging cultural gaps and fostering community warmth [7] Group 4: Industrial Contributions - Baosteel is operating at full capacity to meet demand, ensuring timely delivery of orders through meticulous quality control and safety measures, contributing to the city's industrial backbone [8] - The industrial efforts are part of a broader commitment to maintain stability and supply during the festive season, reinforcing the city's economic foundation [8]

Group 1 - The Chinese government aims to modernize agriculture by integrating agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as promoting the synergy of production, processing, and sales, and the integration of agriculture with culture and tourism [1] - By the end of 2025, over 80% of China's crude steel production capacity is expected to achieve ultra-low emissions as part of the steel industry's transformation project [1] - During the first week after the Spring Festival, over 22 trillion yuan in reverse repos are set to mature in the open market, including 8.524 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 14 trillion yuan in 14-day reverse repos [1] Group 2 - The total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival film season has surpassed 5 billion yuan, including pre-sales, as of February 22 [1] - During the Spring Festival, multiple production lines in the "Optics Valley" region are operating at full capacity, with companies like Huagong Technology ensuring continuous production of high-speed optical modules [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent transaction of iron ore from BHP to China, settled in RMB, marks a significant shift in trade dynamics and highlights BHP's commitment to expanding its influence in the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - BHP's iron ore shipment to China has successfully arrived at Shandong Rizhao Port, marking the first transaction settled in RMB [1]. - The establishment of BHP's subsidiary in Shanghai, registered with a capital of 129 million RMB, is aimed at strengthening its market presence in China [1]. - BHP has a long history of engagement with the Chinese market, dating back to its first lead ore export in 1891, and has maintained a high export volume of iron ore to China [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In 2022, China imported 694 million tons of iron ore from Australia, accounting for 67% of its total imports, indicating a strong demand for Australian iron ore [3]. - Despite efforts to reduce dependency on Australian iron ore, its unique qualities make it irreplaceable for Chinese steel manufacturers in the short term [5]. - The steel industry remains a pillar of the Chinese economy, ensuring sustained high demand for iron ore [5]. Group 3: Currency Settlement Implications - The use of RMB for this transaction is seen as a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with USD settlements, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions [6][8]. - The shift towards RMB settlements reflects a broader trend of de-dollarization, as countries seek to reduce reliance on the USD due to its political risks and volatility [8]. - RMB settlements can lower transaction costs and streamline processes by eliminating the need to convert currencies, thus enhancing trade efficiency [8].

Core Insights - The company achieved a strong start in January, exceeding production targets and setting multiple records in output and delivery [4][21][24] Group 1: Production Performance - The hot-rolled plate factory exceeded its production plan by 0.69 million tons in January, setting a record of 11 times, including 3 monthly records, 6 daily records, and 2 shift records [4][21] - The 2300 production line achieved a production volume of 575,100 tons and delivered 21,369 coils, both setting new monthly records [4][21] - The factory's monthly shipping volume from the hot steel coil warehouse and monthly receiving volume in the slab warehouse reached historical highs, marking a successful start to the year [4][21] Group 2: Efficiency and Management - The factory focuses on efficiency by implementing a "1+5" production model in rough rolling, enhancing heating furnace output efficiency, and optimizing temperature parameters in finishing and coiling processes [4][21] - Continuous efforts are made to reduce non-productive downtime and improve overall production organization and rhythm [4][21] Group 3: Quality Control - The factory established a comprehensive control mechanism to address core product quality defects, implementing a plan to tackle key defects with clear responsibilities and performance incentives [5][22] - Measures were taken to prevent foreign object contamination, including thorough inspections and cleaning to eliminate potential hazards [5][22] Group 4: Equipment Management - The factory improved equipment management by focusing on key personnel and equipment, enhancing operational management and seasonal maintenance to reduce equipment failure rates [5][22] - Efforts to utilize downtime effectively for equipment maintenance and inspections have been intensified to ensure stable operations [5][22] Group 5: Future Goals - The factory aims to deepen its "extreme" philosophy, focusing on dual goals of efficiency and profitability while optimizing production management to contribute to high-quality development [7][24]