在当前复杂多变的市场环境下，如何运用衍生工具服务实体经济、助力企业稳健经营，成为期货行业面 临的重要课题。海通期货全资子公司海通资源管理有限公司（下称海通资源），通过创新运用"现货 +期权"业务模式，为浙江定驰能源有限公司提供精准的风险管理服务，有效帮助企业锁定销售价格、 增厚经营利润，并实现了贸易规模的逆势增长，为传统贸易企业优化经营模式提供了可借鉴的路径。 戴晓明表示，该方案创新地将现货持仓转化为"现货+期权"的持仓模式，旨在帮助企业在价格上涨期间 实现高价预售、锁定利润，在价格下跌时增厚收益。这一成功实践凸显了场外衍生品在服务实体经济方 面的独特价值。相较于传统的期货套保，场外期权策略更具灵活性，能够更好地满足实体企业个性化、 复杂化的风险管理需求；可以与期货工具形成有效互补，为企业提供更丰富、更精准的保值增值工具。 展望未来，戴晓明认为，期货公司风险管理子公司应始终秉持服务实体经济的初心，继续发挥专业优 势，积极做好市场培育与推广工作。通过深入了解企业个性化需求，设计更具针对性的交易策略，将理 论转化为切实可行的风险管理方案，助力更多实体企业应对市场波动，保障经营稳定，实现高质量发 展，为我国实体经济 ...

美联储降息预期下降，商品有何影响 20251126 摘要 美联储 12 月降息预期分歧加大，官员对经济数据解读和未来政策路径 存在明显差异，鸽派认为劳动力市场疲软支持降息，鹰派则担忧通胀反 弹，政策不确定性增加。 国内宏观经济方面，11 月 LPR 维持不变，央行认为货币政策仍有空间 但边际效率下降，年内进一步宽松可能性不大，或留待明年发力稳增长。 黑色商品分化，煤焦类商品大幅下跌，焦煤单周跌幅达 9%，焦炭跌幅 超 4%；铁矿石表现相对强劲，全周上涨约 1.2%。螺纹钢和热卷市场整 体表现反复，处于窄幅震荡整理状态。 铁矿石近期表现强于其他品种，但随着基差修复完成及发运增长带来到 港量上升，未来供需矛盾可能加剧，短期内价格可能呈现宽幅震荡走势。 贵金属延续偏弱格局，金银比徘徊在 81 附近，美联储内部分歧导致 12 月降息概率降低，俄乌、中美关系缓和等因素使得黄金中短期缺乏上涨 动力，或维持高位震荡。 原油市场中期供给宽松趋势压制油价反弹，地缘政治因素短期扰动，但 中长期供需错配仍是主要矛盾，IEA 预测今年及明年全球原油供应过剩 压力依然存在。 生猪现货价格持续下行，养殖户亏损，出栏节奏高位但消费未显著增 ...

2026 年度展望：中国宏观 20251126 摘要 2026 年中国实际 GDP 增速目标预计在 5%左右，反映政府对经济增长 的信心和政策力度，未来十年 GDP 增速需不低于 3.5%以达到中等发达 国家水平。 2026 年财政政策预计保持扩张，财政赤字率维持在 4%左右，特别国债 可能增至 2 万亿，专项债或达 4.6 万亿，广义赤字率取决于新增财政措 施。 2026 年投资有望实现正增长，出口增速预计维持强势但略降至 3.5%- 4%，消费受补贴不确定性影响需进一步分析，价格增速至少恢复到零增 长。 新经济占 GDP 比例已上升至 18%左右，高科技投资占整体投资比例达 到 12%，新经济体量已超过传统经济，对经济的拉动作用更加明显。 人工智能对能源需求影响显著，数据中心耗电量持续增长，带动储能板 块和铜、铝、硅、稀土等原材料需求，软实力科技进步拉动实物投资增 长。 2025 年消费增速为 20 年来最佳，但补贴商品销售增速下滑，内生消费 动能上升，生活用品、服务、交通通讯及文化教育类商品贡献显著。 房地产市场虽仍负增长，但下跌速度减缓，整体市场接近零增长，政策 支持至关重要，需调整房贷利率以稳定购房 ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,099.00 | -7↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1200700 | -100338↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -72292 | -25719↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -17 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 59519 | -7773↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 205 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,364 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,470.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

11月26日，钢材现货市场小幅下跌，期货市场主要品种主力以跌为主，其中螺纹跌0.06%、热卷跌 0.03%，铁矿涨0.19%，双焦跌1.3%左右。近期钢材表观需求有所好转，期钢亦有回落，虽然基建及市 政项目未有改善，但房建项目资金到位率续增，创近年新高，明日钢价...... 一、多空因素分析 1．中钢协：11月中旬重点钢企粗钢日产194.3万吨，环比增0.9% 2025年11月中旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢1943万吨，平均日产194.3万吨，日产环比增长0.9%； 生产钢材1924万吨，平均日产192.4万吨，日产环比增长2.1%；钢材库存量1561万吨，环比上一旬增加 12万吨，增长0.8%；目前看，粗钢日产环比增长会加剧供应压力，利空钢材价格走势。 https://www.chinaisa.org.cn/gxportal/xfgl/portal/index.html 2.美联储重磅发声！12月降息概率上升 多名美联储官员发声！北京时间25日晚间消息，美联储理事米兰表示，美国经济需要大幅降息，货币政 策阻碍了经济发展。米兰认为，美国不存在通胀问题，美联储应该尽快将利率降至中性水平。此前，美 联储官员戴利 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251126 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：俄乌和谈进程提速，A 股迎来修复 海外方面，陆续补发的经济数据再度提振市场降息预期，美国 9 月零售环比仅增 0.2%， 显著弱于 8 月的 0.6%，在关税抬价和劳动力市场走软背景下，消费趋疲；9 月 PPI 环比回升 0.3%符合预期，能源涨 3.5%与食品涨 1.1%是主要贡献；ADP 周报显示过去四周美国私营部 门就业岗位周均减少 1.35 万，就业数据仍偏弱，12 月降息预期再度提高至 85%。美元指数 回落至 99.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4%，美股低开高走。泽连斯基称乌方已准备推进美方支 持的停战框架，并愿与特朗普协商分歧，要求欧洲同步参与，油价下跌超 1%，金价、铜价 上涨。今日关注 9 月耐用品订单以及初申失业金人数。 国内方面，A 股放量修复，两市近 4300 只个股收涨、成交额缩量至 1.74 万亿，双创板 块领涨，教育、通讯设备、贵金属等板块表现相对较优，目前地缘风险阶段性缓和、基本面 数据偏冷、12 月政策预期尚未发 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面偏强震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 17 元/吨，涨幅为 0.55%，持仓减少 13.2 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2980 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.14 万吨。 | | | | 据 CME"美联储观察"预测，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 82.9%，较此前大幅提升，维持利率不 | | | | 变的概率为 17.1%。美联储降息预期再次升温，对市场情绪形成较强提振。近期钢厂亏损面不断扩大，上 | | | | 周 247 家钢厂盈利率仅为 37.66%，已降至去年 10 月以来的最低水平。钢厂减产检修增多，成材产量有所 | | | | 回落，对缓解阶段供应压力起到积极影响。不过当前市场已转入消费淡季，市场对于后期 ...

-4849 .1012 -48倍 | 7 Elite | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 份格号:F025192 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品神 | | | | | | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 股指 | 農汤 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 六川金融 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 至间。 | | | | | | | | 近期市场情绪反复,铜价或震荡运行。 | 農汤 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | 震荡 | F | | | | | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | 氧化铝 | 格继续围绕成本线附近震荡运行,关注矿端价格变化。 | 美联储内部分歧加大, 近期宏观情绪预计反复。基本面短期国内 | | | | | | | ...

| | | | | | | | EATH FANTER FOR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 6000 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Weak Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [3] - SSE 50: Oscillation [3] - CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weak Oscillation [6] - Offset Paper: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Operation [6] - Soybean Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Weak Oscillation [6] - Soybean No.2: Weak Oscillation [8] - Soybean No.1: Weak Oscillation [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillation with a Slight Uptrend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the steel mill profit is squeezed again, but the short - term negative feedback probability is low, with the price oscillating strongly at a high level [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply concerns, and the price is in a weak adjustment state in the short term [2] - The downstream demand for rolled steel and rebar is weak, and the price is in a bottom - oscillating state, depending on production reduction policies and macro policies [2] - The glass demand is weak, and the price is weak, with the need to focus on production line cold repair and policies [2][3] - The stock index futures/options market has short - term adjustments, and the medium - term trend is still optimistic [3] - The gold price is supported in the long term by the Fed's interest - rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, with short - term fluctuations [4] - The log price is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to supply pressure and weak demand [4][6] - The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost support weakening and poor demand [6] - The oil price is expected to operate in a range, and the meal price is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by supply, demand, and policies [6][8] - The live pig price is expected to oscillate, with short - term downward pressure on the settlement price and upward support for the slaughter rate [8] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely due to supply and demand factors [10] - The polyester products' prices are affected by supply, demand, and raw material prices, showing different trends such as oscillation and weak adjustment [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 million tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 million tons to 2939.5 million tons, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 million tons. The demand core is in the real estate, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by import news and supply concerns, the futures price dropped sharply. The fourth round of price increases by coke enterprises has been implemented, but the profit repair is limited, and the market has different views on the fifth - round increase [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The downstream demand is weak, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The steel price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2] - **Glass**: The spot price is weak, and the demand is dragged down by the real - estate竣工. The inventory is increasing, and the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the surplus problem [2][3] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose 0.95%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.25%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 1.31%. Some sectors had capital inflows or outflows, and geopolitical news affected the market [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1bp, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan. The bond market showed a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: In a high - interest - rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the gold pricing mechanism is changing. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term factors, and long - term support comes from multiple aspects [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, inflation, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume decreased, the import volume changed, the inventory increased, and the spot price was weak. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase [4][6] - **Pulp**: The spot price was divided, the cost support weakened, the paper - mill demand was poor, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils**: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, the palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the domestic oil supply was abundant while the demand was weak. The price was expected to operate in a range [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted, the global soybean supply was relatively loose, and the domestic meal supply was abundant. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [6][8] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight fluctuated, the settlement price decreased by 2.58%, the demand recovered slightly, and the slaughter rate increased. The price was expected to oscillate with short - term downward pressure [8] Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in different regions changed, the output in some areas was affected by the weather, the demand was supported by the auto industry, and the inventory was accumulating. The price was expected to oscillate widely [10] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical easing led to oil - price decline, and the supply was strong while the demand was boosted by the polyester load rebound, with wide - range oscillation [10] - **PTA**: The cost was affected by oil prices, the short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was poor, and the price followed the cost [10] - **MEG**: There was long - term inventory pressure, and the short - term price was weak with upward pressure [10] - **PR**: The raw - material support was weak, and the market was expected to adjust weakly [10] - **PF**: The current supply - demand was okay, but the future expectation was negative, and the price was expected to adjust weakly [10]