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美银证券:料中国天然气需求增长放缓 降昆仑能源(00135)评级至“跑输大市” 偏好中国石油股份
智通财经网· 2025-11-12 06:23
Group 1: Industry Outlook - The demand for natural gas in China is expected to slow down to an annual growth rate of 2% to 3% from 2025 to 2027, compared to a compound annual growth rate of 9% over the past decade, due to weak industrial demand and the continued economic advantage of coal as a fuel source [1] - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for gas-fired power generation remains the highest, making the transition from coal to renewable energy more attractive [1] Group 2: Company Ratings and Price Targets - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating on China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857), citing stable average selling prices for natural gas and a reduction in losses from imported natural gas as oil prices decline; the target price for PetroChina H-shares is raised by 12% to HKD 9.5, and for A-shares (601857.SH) by 10% to RMB 11 [1] - The rating for Kunlun Energy (00135) is downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform" due to the company's reliance on industrial customers, which account for 75% of its retail natural gas sales; the need to lower prices to maintain customer attraction is highlighted, particularly for price-sensitive clients like glass manufacturers [1] - The target price for Kunlun Energy is reduced by 16% to HKD 7, with limited dividend growth potential as the company has reached a 45% payout guideline and needs to reserve funds for acquisitions [1]
美银证券:料中国天然气需求增长放缓 降昆仑能源(00135)评级至“跑输大市” 偏好中国石油股份(00857)
智通财经网· 2025-11-12 06:20
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities forecasts that China's natural gas demand growth will slow to 2% to 3% annually from 2025 to 2027, compared to a 9% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, due to weak industrial demand and the continued economic advantage of coal as a fuel source [1] Company Analysis - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) maintains a "Buy" rating as it keeps natural gas average prices relatively stable, and losses from imported natural gas are narrowing with falling oil prices; target price for PetroChina H-shares raised by 12% to HKD 9.5, and A-shares target price increased by 10% to RMB 11 [1] - Kunlun Energy (00135) rating downgraded from "Neutral" to "Underperform" due to 75% of retail natural gas sales coming from industrial customers, who are price-sensitive; the company needs to lower prices to maintain customer attraction while facing limited dividend growth potential as it has reached a 45% payout guideline and needs to reserve funds for acquisitions; target price reduced by 16% to HKD 7 [1] Industry Insights - The petrochemical sector in mainland China shows limited progress in "anti-involution," with no significant improvement expected in fundamentals before the second quarter of next year [1]