牛市中期主升浪

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上证指数突破3600点,市场这样预判→
第一财经· 2025-07-23 07:18
Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is exhibiting a typical slow bull characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3600-point psychological barrier, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3608.58 points, up 0.75%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.31% to 11134.07 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.72% to 2327.48 points [1]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.16 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The current market trend is characterized by a steady upward movement along the moving average system, with a relatively gentle overall slope [1]. - The average daily trading volume is maintaining a reasonable range around 1.5 trillion yuan, with recent days seeing traditional cyclical sectors rebound significantly, pushing single-day trading volume to 1.8 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current market rally is fundamentally a valuation recovery, with four main investment themes identified: innovative drugs, energy metals, artificial intelligence, and sectors related to the Yaxia Hydropower Station project [2]. - Analysts suggest that the recent performance of previously overproduced cyclical industries (such as photovoltaics, steel, and chemicals) may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market, driven by valuation improvements [2]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The economic environment is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend, with pressures on exports due to declining external demand, while consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment growth may remain high [3]. - Corporate earnings are in a recovery cycle, and liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential increases in capital inflows from foreign investments, financing, and newly issued funds into the A-share market [3].