从近期公布的多家大中型私募机构策略报告来看，总体上保持策略延续，成长类资产仍是布局重点，但 是局部结构微调已经发生。特别是前期涨幅较大、热度较高的AI等，市场分歧明显，内部调仓布局的 变化加大。 临近年底，12月跨年行情预期升温。面对过去一个月的市场弱势调整，私募机构整体仓位仍在创下新 高。 私募坚定看好A股中长期趋势 对于接下来的操作，淡水泉表示，成长类资产回调后，吸引力提升，公司加大对高确定性成长板块的布 局。主要看好以下三条主线的优质企业成长动能：第一是在中美博弈与全球产业链重构背景下，中国企 业加速出海进程。制造业凭借供应链整体优势，正积极把握欧美再工业化及新兴市场工业化带来的新机 遇。第二是半导体等科技自主可控领域，中国企业在部分关键环节有望实现技术追赶与产业升级。第三 是新一代消费群体的崛起，重塑消费认知与行为模式，推动新品牌、新品类、新体验的持续涌现。 相聚资本表示，关注处于周期和估值底部的资产，这些公司内生增长能抵御行业负贝塔的压制，亏钱概 率低，中期潜在回报可观。此外，顺周期资产虽然基本面弱，但因为估值较低，持仓较少，所以也不太 容易出现大跌，而在其中也可以找到一些结构性有阿尔法的公司。 清 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising expectations for the year-end market rally, highlighting that private equity firms are maintaining high positions despite recent market adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends and Adjustments - Recent reports from various private equity firms indicate a continuation of strategies, with a focus on growth assets, although some structural adjustments are occurring, particularly in previously high-performing sectors like AI [2][3]. - The market has experienced a weak adjustment in November, with core indices declining and trading activity decreasing compared to the previous month. This adjustment is attributed to profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing by institutions, and a general risk-averse behavior among investors [3][4]. Group 2: Private Equity Positioning - As of November 21, 2025, the stock private equity position index reached 82.97%, marking a significant increase of 1.84% from the previous week and setting a new high for the year [4]. - The proportion of fully invested private equity firms (over 80% positions) has risen to 68.99%, while the shares of medium, low, and empty positions have decreased significantly [4]. Group 3: Future Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are optimistic about structural opportunities in the market, supported by favorable policies and liquidity conditions. They anticipate that the overall liquidity in A-shares will remain ample, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - Investment focus is shifting towards high-certainty growth sectors, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and global supply chain restructuring, with an emphasis on manufacturing, semiconductors, and emerging consumer trends [5][6]. - Companies are advised to pay attention to assets at the bottom of their cycles and valuations, as these may offer lower risk and potential for significant returns in the medium term [6].

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。重阳投资董事长兼首席经济学家王庆以"从价格重估到业绩驱动"为题发表演讲，系统 阐述了对当前中国资本市场发展趋势的判断。 王庆认为，资产荒背景下的价值重估分为三阶段。阶段一，风险偏好极低，价值股重估。阶段二，风险 偏好修复，成长股重估。阶段三，风险偏好正常，业绩驱动。 展望后市，王庆判断，大规模的价值重估行情已告一段落，市场将进入"下半场"。未来的投资机会将不 再源于整体的估值提升，而是依赖于个股和行业层面的业绩驱动，呈现为鲜明的结构性特征。"一个个 阶段性的结构性行情累加在一起，就是慢牛的行情。"他坦言，虽然"慢牛"一词常被市场调侃，但中国 经济正经历前所未有的结构性变化，这为慢牛的出现创造了条件。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：郭栩彤 王庆通过对比美国、日本的历史经验指出，中国房地产泡沫破裂后面临的独特挑战是"地方财政的严重 困难"。 他认为，924后出台的一揽子政策，其力度和形式堪比日本的"安倍三支箭"，而其中"中央政府协 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the operational paths and strategic thoughts of major private equity firms, indicating a shift towards structural adjustments in investment strategies rather than significant withdrawals from the market [1]. Group 1: Market Positioning and Fund Performance - As of the end of October, the average position of subjective long-biased private equity funds was 78%, maintaining a high level compared to previous years [2]. - Despite a stagnant index in October, the proportion of fully invested and leveraged private equity increased to 25.3%, with over 90% of private equity maintaining positions above 50% [2]. - Most private equity products achieved positive returns, with significant performance differentiation among them [3]. - Some products from DWSQ and Qincheng Asset reported annual returns exceeding 70% and 30%, respectively, showcasing strong performance [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Adjustments - Private equity firms exhibited a common tactical approach of "rebalancing," reducing holdings in assets with excessive short-term gains while increasing positions in assets with greater future potential [7]. - DWSQ and other firms indicated a strategy of locking in profits after significant price increases in certain holdings [7]. - The focus on technology and healthcare sectors was emphasized, with firms like DWSQ increasing their investments in leading companies within these industries [8]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Future Outlook - There is a consensus among private equity firms regarding the attractiveness of the technology and healthcare sectors, with many firms increasing their allocations in these areas [11][16]. - The article notes a divergence in views on the financial sector, with some firms maintaining high allocations while others express caution regarding valuations [12][15]. - The outlook for the market is cautiously optimistic, with a belief in a "structural slow bull" market driven by in-depth analysis of industry trends and company fundamentals [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reports from major private equity firms indicate a cautious yet optimistic outlook on the market, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than broad market rallies [1][15]. Summary by Sections Private Equity Fund Positioning - As of the end of October, the average position of subjective long-biased private equity funds was 78%, consistent with high levels seen in recent years [1]. - The proportion of funds fully invested or using leverage increased to 25.3%, while over 90% of private equity funds maintained positions above 50% [2]. Performance Review - Most private equity products achieved positive returns by the end of October, but performance varied significantly among them [4]. - Notable performers included a product from淡水泉 with over 70% annual return and products from勤辰资产 with returns exceeding 30% [5][6]. - High毅资产 showed diverse performance across its funds, with some achieving over 25% annual returns while others lagged behind [6][7]. Tactical Adjustments - Private equity firms exhibited a common strategy of "rebalancing," reducing exposure to overvalued assets while increasing positions in those with higher potential [9][10]. -淡水泉 and邓晓峰 both indicated a strategy of locking in profits from rapidly appreciating holdings [10]. Sector Focus - There is a notable shift towards technology and healthcare sectors, with firms like淡水泉 and高毅资产 increasing their allocations to these areas [12][21]. - Some firms are also exploring undervalued domestic sectors such as real estate and consumer goods, anticipating potential excess returns [14][22]. Market Outlook - The consensus among private equity firms is a "structural slow bull" market, driven by in-depth analysis of industry trends and company fundamentals [15][16]. - While there is optimism, some firms caution about potential bubbles in certain sectors, particularly among small-cap stocks [16][17]. Sector Preferences - The technology sector is viewed positively by many firms, with a focus on domestic replacements and improvements in fundamentals [18]. - The healthcare sector is widely regarded as a long-term investment opportunity, with several firms increasing their exposure [21]. - The financial sector remains a stronghold for some firms, with significant allocations noted in their portfolios [23].

Core Insights - The A-share market has reached a significant milestone with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, signaling a positive market sentiment despite closing below this level [1][6] - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a remarkable single-day increase of over 8%, drawing attention to the potential impact of the upcoming North Exchange 50 ETF launch [1][4] Market Structure Changes - The current market environment is fundamentally different from previous instances of the index reaching 4000 points, with a shift from traditional industries to a technology-driven "structural slow bull" market [3][11] - The contribution of the information technology sector to the index's rise has been substantial, accounting for 455 points, contrasting with the reliance on industrial and financial sectors in the past [3] Fund Flows and Policy Support - The recent market rally is attributed to a combination of favorable policies, increased foreign capital inflows, and a stable margin trading balance, indicating heightened market activity [6][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation, providing a long-term rationale for investments in the tech sector [6] Stock Market Divergence - Despite the strong index performance, there is significant internal market divergence, with over 2900 stocks declining and many stocks showing minimal gains, indicating a concentration of funds in technology leaders and high-dividend blue-chip stocks [7] - The extreme valuation disparity between sectors, such as the 174 times P/E ratio for the Sci-Tech 50 compared to a P/B ratio of 1.3 for the banking sector, suggests caution regarding high-flying stocks [7] Future Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on avoiding overvalued technology stocks and instead consider low-valuation sectors such as high-dividend assets, consumer goods, and cyclical products benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics [9] - Maintaining a balanced portfolio and exercising patience in a volatile market environment is recommended for long-term gains [9]

Group 1 - The current Chinese stock market exhibits a structural slow bull characteristic, indicating a foundation for a slow bull market [1] - Key driving factors for the positive market trend include a low interest rate environment, implementation of institutional reforms, accelerated institutional entry of long-term capital, and marginal improvement in profitability [1] - The deepening reform of the capital market is transforming it from a financing-focused model to a balanced investment and financing model centered around hard technology and new productive forces [2] Group 2 - The ongoing A+H listing trend is expected to attract international capital inflow as more outstanding Chinese companies list in Hong Kong, benefiting the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - The introduction of policies aimed at guiding long-term and professional investment, such as encouraging institutional investors and long-term funds to enter the market, enhances the rationality of stock pricing and overall stability of stock valuations [2] - The structural nature of supply in the market and the total volume focus on the investment side expand the range of selectable companies while increasing the difficulty of discerning quality, which is beneficial for bottom-up selection by institutional investors [2]

Group 1 - The current Chinese stock market exhibits a structural slow bull characteristic, indicating a foundation for a slow bull market [1] - Key driving factors for the positive market trend include a low interest rate environment, implementation of institutional reforms, accelerated institutional entry of long-term capital, and marginal improvement in profitability [1] - The deepening reform of the capital market is transforming it from a financing-focused model to a balanced investment and financing model centered around hard technology and new productive forces [2] Group 2 - The ongoing A+H listing trend is expected to attract international capital inflow as more outstanding Chinese companies list in Hong Kong, benefiting the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - The introduction of long-term and professional institutional investors, such as public funds, insurance funds, and pension funds, is expected to enhance the rationality of stock pricing and overall stability of stock market valuations [2] - The current environment increases the range of selectable companies for investors while also complicating the process of distinguishing quality companies, which is beneficial for bottom-up selection by institutional investors [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with a gap up of 0.4%, reaching a ten-year high of 3907.18 points, the highest since August 2015 [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.13 trillion yuan in the morning session, with an expected total of over 2.77 trillion yuan for the day, a 27% increase from the previous day [1] Key Drivers - The surge in the market is attributed to several factors, including international gold prices reaching $4000 per ounce and AMD's stock rising 40% due to its collaboration with OpenAI, which has positively influenced the A-share technology sector [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, injecting 300 billion yuan in liquidity, acting as a catalyst for the market rally [3] Fund Flows and Market Structure - The balance of margin financing and securities lending exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a near ten-year high, while northbound capital saw a net inflow of nearly 40 billion yuan in September [3] - The nature of incremental funds has changed, with insurance funds' equity investment ratio limit raised from 30% to 35%, and social security fund limits increased from 20% to 25%, leading to a projected 40% year-on-year increase in institutional fund inflows by mid-2025 [5] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with 12 stocks hitting the daily limit, driven by a global turnaround in the storage industry, as indicated by Morgan Stanley's report predicting a price increase for DDR4 chips until 2026 [5][6] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with stocks like Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper seeing gains over 5%, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [8] Gold and Financial Sector - The continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China, which has been buying gold for 11 consecutive months, is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [9] - The brokerage sector, while not experiencing widespread limit-up gains, plays a crucial role in pushing the index higher, with a significant increase in daily trading volume and margin financing [10] Policy and Economic Outlook - The current market rally is characterized by a deep integration of policy and industrial upgrades, with a focus on technology and high-end manufacturing as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [10][12] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is expected to introduce policies targeting new productive forces and energy security, which may further influence market dynamics [12] Investor Sentiment and Risks - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding future trends, with some analysts predicting that the influx of 7.5-8.5 trillion yuan in incremental funds could push the index above 5000 points, while others caution about the current high dynamic PE ratio and the need for earnings growth to support valuation recovery [12][14] - The market is experiencing sectoral divergence, with real estate and media sectors declining, indicating that funds are concentrated in a few leading sectors [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in deposit rates and real estate investment returns has led to an "asset shortage," prompting residents to seek high-yield investment products. Investors must navigate risks in a declining index environment, with varying risk preferences influencing their strategies [1][5]. Investment Strategies - Risk-averse investors should focus on optimizing their stock portfolios to reduce overall risk, emphasizing the selection of hedging assets [1][3]. - Concentrating investments in technology stocks or small-cap stocks can significantly increase portfolio risk, necessitating a clear strategy for risk hedging [3]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown strong vitality, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3892 points, supported by ample liquidity from residents moving their deposits and expectations of loose monetary policy [7][9]. - The market is entering a "structural slow bull" phase characterized by wide fluctuations and gradual upward trends, with major indices showing impressive year-to-date performance [7][9]. Economic Indicators - The resilience of the macroeconomic environment is providing solid support for the market, with GDP growth in the first half of 2025 projected at 5.3%, surpassing initial targets [19]. - The ongoing economic recovery is seen as a reliable anchor for the stock market, with significant policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and enhancing liquidity [19][21]. Policy Environment - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut exceeding 90% is anticipated to alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate and create more room for domestic monetary policy [11]. - Continuous policy efforts to stimulate consumption and stabilize the real estate market are evident, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [11][19]. Investment Opportunities - The current market environment presents opportunities for long-term investment in companies with core competitiveness, particularly in the AI hardware sector [15]. - The total dividend payout of A-share companies is projected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9%, which is attractive compared to declining U.S. Treasury yields [23]. Market Sentiment - The slow bull market is characterized by a shift from short-term speculation to value investing, indicating a maturation of the Chinese capital market [25]. - The combination of internal and external capital flows is creating a favorable environment for sustained market growth, reinforcing the importance of a robust market ecosystem [21][25].