Group 1 - The article outlines the four stages of a bull market, which typically include "rapid rise - consolidation - upward oscillation - bull market peak" [4] - Historical bull markets since 2000 have followed this pattern, with the "rapid rise - consolidation" phase occurring before a full bull market, while structural bull markets experience this phase during the market progression [4] - In the peak phase of a full bull market, market trading is more active, with higher average turnover rates compared to the consolidation phase of a structural bull market [4] Group 2 - The transition to the rapid rise phase is driven by prior deep adjustments and improved expectations, while the consolidation phase is influenced by fundamental repair delays and profit-taking pressures [5] - Major policy signals or favorable policies typically precede the rapid rise phase, as seen in historical examples like the 2003 stock reform signals and 2016 supply-side structural reform [5] - The upward oscillation and peak phases are driven by a combination of improved fundamentals, liquidity easing, and industry trends, with specific historical periods demonstrating these effects [5] Group 3 - The onset of the upward oscillation phase is often marked by a positive year-on-year growth rate in the net profit of non-financial oil and petrochemical sectors [6] - During this phase, the Shanghai Composite Index typically shows an upward trend for more than 50% of the trading days, with maximum drawdowns generally remaining below 10% [6] - The market's performance in the first 120 trading days after the onset of the upward oscillation phase is crucial for determining future trends [7] Group 4 - The current market may have entered the upward oscillation phase, characterized by a strong performance in the Shanghai Composite Index since September 2024, following the "rapid rise - consolidation - upward oscillation" pattern [8] - The market's strength has not yet shown the expected "narrow oscillation" in the 60-80 trading days following the onset of the upward oscillation phase, indicating a potential formation of a peak [8] - Future market performance will depend on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can break through the recent peak formed since April 8; failure to do so may lead to a period of relative consolidation until the peak phase begins [8]