证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 10 08 年 月 日 量化周报 科技板块出现分化 科技板块出现分化。节前（9.29-9.30），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周收 涨 1.43%。在此背景下，科技板块出现分化，电子、计算机表现相对强势， 而通信、传媒则表现相对弱势。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级 别反弹已经持续了 5 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和 板块的上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超 2/3 的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状 态，几乎所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-15 浪的 上涨结构，而银行、非银也已经率先形成了日线级别下跌，军工、钢铁、 建筑、交运、医药离确认日线级别下跌的日子也不远了。因此我们认为本 轮日线级别上涨大概率已临近尾声。短期，市场的波动进一步加大后，投 资者后续可积极关注市场未来是否出现放量滞涨、放量大跌及缩量反弹迹 象。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创 业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结 构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 26 个行业处于周线 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines the four stages of a bull market, which typically include "rapid rise - consolidation - upward oscillation - bull market peak" [4] - Historical bull markets since 2000 have followed this pattern, with the "rapid rise - consolidation" phase occurring before a full bull market, while structural bull markets experience this phase during the market progression [4] - In the peak phase of a full bull market, market trading is more active, with higher average turnover rates compared to the consolidation phase of a structural bull market [4] Group 2 - The transition to the rapid rise phase is driven by prior deep adjustments and improved expectations, while the consolidation phase is influenced by fundamental repair delays and profit-taking pressures [5] - Major policy signals or favorable policies typically precede the rapid rise phase, as seen in historical examples like the 2003 stock reform signals and 2016 supply-side structural reform [5] - The upward oscillation and peak phases are driven by a combination of improved fundamentals, liquidity easing, and industry trends, with specific historical periods demonstrating these effects [5] Group 3 - The onset of the upward oscillation phase is often marked by a positive year-on-year growth rate in the net profit of non-financial oil and petrochemical sectors [6] - During this phase, the Shanghai Composite Index typically shows an upward trend for more than 50% of the trading days, with maximum drawdowns generally remaining below 10% [6] - The market's performance in the first 120 trading days after the onset of the upward oscillation phase is crucial for determining future trends [7] Group 4 - The current market may have entered the upward oscillation phase, characterized by a strong performance in the Shanghai Composite Index since September 2024, following the "rapid rise - consolidation - upward oscillation" pattern [8] - The market's strength has not yet shown the expected "narrow oscillation" in the 60-80 trading days following the onset of the upward oscillation phase, indicating a potential formation of a peak [8] - Future market performance will depend on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can break through the recent peak formed since April 8; failure to do so may lead to a period of relative consolidation until the peak phase begins [8]

对于后续市场走势，粤开证券认为，虽然指数回调，但从个股方面来看，涨停的个股仍有27家，跌停的 个股为14家，个股依旧相对活跃，回调为投资者提供了布局良机。中长期来看，经济形势向好叠加改革 预期将助力大金融板块，另外科技、消费等前期领涨主线在经历估值消化后具备反弹预期，在经济持续 复苏势头下，市场趋势向好。(张颖) 近日，A股市场整体震荡，资金也随之出现变化。截至9月21日，沪深两市的两融余额达15006.12亿元， 较前一交易日增加19.59亿元。其中，融资余额达14180.16亿元，较前一交易日增加12.36亿元。 从行业方面看，9月21日，在申万一级的28个行业中，有18个行业被融资客净买入，其中，医药生物、 计算机、国防军工和传媒等四行业净买入额居前，均超2亿元以上，分别为3.87亿元、3.3亿元、2.6亿元 和2.3亿元，合计达12.07亿元。 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Key funding data remains under pressure, with a notable decline in trading volume, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [2][3] - Key Point 2: The financing and margin trading balance has shown a recent decline, suggesting a slowdown in individual investors' leverage activity [2] - Key Point 3: The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between outflow of margin funds and inflow of new capital, primarily from public funds and asset management products launched in late July [3] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The three major domestic market indices saw a slight rebound, but the underlying data suggests that the downward trend has not been convincingly reversed [2] - Key Point 2: The trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges struggled to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, down from recent peaks of 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing investor caution [2] - Key Point 3: The overall market dynamics are influenced more by individual investors' trading data and margin trading balances than by public fund allocations [3]

在这个美丽的晚上，跟大家复盘一下今天的走势。今天市场怒涨11.77个指数点，涨幅0.3%，成功收复 3600点，涨得太快了。指数出现了迅猛的上行，但有2999家待涨，散户在卖，机构在买，依然还是这样 的大面积的筹码交换。今天的上涨还是建立在银行股在跌幅榜第二名的基础上出现的，所以我们重点谈 谈 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a 2.8% decline in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [5] - The Director of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the average economic growth rate in China during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan reached 5.5%, with an expected economic increment of over 35 trillion yuan during this period [5] Industry Dynamics - The national marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, with related stocks including China COSCO Shipping (601919) and China Shipbuilding Industry (600150) [6] - BYD has launched "L4-level automatic parking," with institutions optimistic about the incremental component opportunities, related stocks include Desay SV (002920) and Bertel (603596) [6] - Since 2025, despite overall revenue pressure on innovative pharmaceutical companies, the export growth rate has turned positive, with related stocks including BeiGene (688235) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) [6] Company Focus - Northern Rare Earth (600111) expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a growth of 1883% to 2015% compared to the same period last year [7] - Shenglong Development (002299) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 million to 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [7] - Guibao Pet (301498) plans to invest 650 million yuan from its own funds to build an intelligent warehousing and digital sorting center project [7] - Baoming Technology (002992) has developed a fourth-generation composite copper foil product in response to future market demands for high safety and ultra-fast charging in lithium batteries, which has undergone customer sample testing [7] Market Review and Outlook - On July 9, the market opened slightly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3512 points during the day but closing down 0.13% at 3493.05 points, failing to stay above 3500 points [8] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16%, with a total trading volume of 1.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [8] - Sectors such as diversified finance, cultural media, medical services, banking, and cement materials saw gains, while insurance, non-ferrous metals, shipbuilding, wind power equipment, and semiconductors experienced notable declines [8] - The market is showing increased divergence, with leading sectors lacking sustainability, contributing to cautious buying behavior among investors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized the importance of close collaboration with the government on policy matters and highlighted the need to closely monitor market trends and their impact on the Japanese economy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan will work closely with the government to ensure effective policy implementation [1] - There is a focus on monitoring market movements and their implications for the Japanese economy [1]