牛肉供应体系
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泰森关厂冲击波,美国牛肉75年危机,如何波及中国餐桌?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 08:37
Core Insights - Tyson Foods announced the closure of its beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, and significant capacity reductions in Texas, resulting in approximately 1,700 job losses and a 4.8% decrease in U.S. beef slaughter volume [1][3] Industry Challenges - Tyson's beef segment has faced increasing losses, with a reported loss of $648 million in FY2023 and projected losses of $291 million in FY2024 and $426 million in FY2025 [3] - The U.S. cattle herd has declined to its lowest level since 1950, with over 100,000 family farms disappearing in the past decade, complicating the beef supply situation [3][5] - The outbreak of screw-worm fly in Mexico has further impacted cattle survival rates, exacerbating the supply issues [5] - Rising costs for live cattle, feed, and agricultural equipment have compressed profit margins across the industry, affecting not only Tyson but also other major players like JBS and Cargill [5] Tyson's Position in China - Tyson has established a strong presence in China since 2001, with significant investments in production facilities and a comprehensive supply chain from cattle farming to processing [7] - The company operates four R&D centers and numerous farms in China, producing 12,000 tons of beef patties annually and maintaining a herd of 30,000 cattle [7] - Tyson's sales strategy includes B2B partnerships with major brands like Haidilao and Starbucks, as well as retail sales through large supermarkets, generating annual e-commerce sales of 1.5 billion yuan [7] Impact of U.S. Plant Closures on China - The closure of Tyson's U.S. plants is not expected to significantly impact the Chinese market, as 85% of the beef sold in China is locally produced, with only 12% coming from U.S. imports [11] - China's beef imports from the U.S. have historically been low, accounting for just 3.2% of total imports in the first eight months of 2025, with Brazil and Argentina being the primary suppliers [11] China's Beef Industry Landscape - China's beef consumption is projected to reach 9.8 million tons by 2024, but domestic production only meets 70% of demand, leading to reliance on imports [14] - Rising prices for imported beef have resulted in increased retail prices domestically, with high-end beef products primarily sourced from Australia and Japan [14] - The Chinese government is investing 5 billion yuan in initiatives to increase beef production and improve breeding efficiency through advanced technologies [14][16] Strategic Responses - Chinese companies are investing in processing facilities in Brazil and Argentina to secure supply chains and mitigate import risks [16] - The introduction of beef futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange allows companies to hedge against price volatility [16] - Efforts to improve domestic beef quality include the introduction of Australian Angus cattle, resulting in a 30% improvement in the quality of domestic snowflake beef [16] Conclusion - Tyson's plant closures reflect broader cyclical adjustments in the global beef industry influenced by geopolitical factors, highlighting the need for China to develop a balanced beef supply system that combines imports, self-sufficiency, and technological control [16]