Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The special treasury bond issuance plan this year may be earlier than last year. The issuance plan in 2024 was announced in May, and in 2025 it was advanced to April 16. With the earlier release of the list of 'two - heavy' construction projects and the statement of accelerating fund allocation, it is judged that this year's plan may be even earlier [8][14]. - The current 30 - year treasury bond active bond (2500006) is 'unreasonable' as its balance is much less than 2500002. If the active bond expectation changes, the spread between 2500006 and 2500002 may widen [8][15]. - Market prices active bonds based on the special treasury bond issuance plan. In 2024, the active bond did not change as the scale of special treasury bonds was similar to 230023. In 2025, due to the earlier issuance plan and larger expected scale of new bonds, the active bond expectation of 250002 weakened, and the spread between 250002 and 230023 widened [8][15][16]. - For this year, if the estimated balance based on the special treasury bond issuance plan is higher than the current active bond, 2500006 may weaken, and funds may flow to 2500002 or 230023, with the spreads of 2500006 - 2500002 and 2500006 - 230023 likely to widen. It is advisable to appropriately allocate some 30 - year old bonds before the special treasury bond issuance plan [8][16]. - Currently, 2500006 has a high bond - lending concentration. If it weakens, short - sellers can close positions for profit. However, if there are significant positive events in the bond market before the issuance plan, 2500006 may perform relatively stronger [9][17]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - There are many 30 - year treasury bond varieties with certain liquidity. As the second quarter approaches, investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of the special treasury bond issuance plan on the active bond switch [14]. - The special treasury bond issuance plan this year may be earlier than last year. The earlier release of the 'two - heavy' project list and the call for accelerating fund allocation support this judgment [8][14]. - If the issuance is advanced, it will affect the long - term bond trend. The current active bond 2500006 is 'unreasonable', and its spread with 2500002 may widen if the expectation changes [8][15]. - By comparing history, it is found that the market prices active bonds according to the issuance plan. In 2024, the active bond did not change, while in 2025, the active bond expectation of 250002 weakened, and the spread with 230023 widened [8][15][16]. - For this year, 2500006 may weaken, and the spreads with 2500002 and 230023 may widen. It is recommended to allocate some 30 - year old bonds before the issuance plan [8][16]. - 2500006 has a high bond - lending concentration. Its performance may be affected by short - selling and positive market events [9][17].