2026.01.10 本文字数：2278，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 亓宁 "中国资本市场讨论不要老在证券、上市这一个范围，资本市场实际上既包含企业股权投资基金、股权 补充机制的环节，也包含证券市场本身这个环节，两个'轮子'一起转。"1月10日，在第三十届（2026年 度）中国资本市场论坛上，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆市原市长黄奇 帆围绕资本市场改革分享了重要观点。 他强调，资本市场对一个国家、一个社会来说包含两个"轮子"：一个是上市公司、证券公司，以及股民 等形成的股票市场；另一个是全社会工商企业的资本金形成和补充机制，涉及到股权投资基金的发展， 是超越股票市场的一个更大的范围。 在黄奇帆看来，资本市场两个"轮子"一起转，形成国民经济的一个重要推动力。解决中国企业效益问题 和风险问题，需要形成长期的、可持续的企业资本金补充机制，额外调度资金降低企业负债率。 两个"轮子"要一起转 他提到，上世纪90年代由国家主导的国有企业破产核销坏账和债转股，以及股票市场的建设发展，对补 充企业资本起到了重要作用。 "到2000年的时候，中国上市公司的资本金一度达到70%以上，国有企业资 ...

2026.01. 10 在黄奇帆看来，资本市场两个"轮子"一起转，形成国民经济的一个重要推动力。解决中国企业效益问题和风险问 题，需要形成长期的、可持续的企业资本金补充机制，额外调度资金降低企业负债率。 两个"轮子"要一起转 "我们国家长期存在的问题就是工商企业股权资本不够、补充机制不够，（往往）起步的时候够了，过五年、十 年又不够了，没有形成长远的补充机制。"黄奇帆说。 他提到，上世纪90年代由国家主导的国有企业破产核销坏账和债转股，以及股票市场的建设发展，对补充企业 资本起到了重要作用。 "到2000年的时候，中国上市公司的资本金一度达到70%以上，国有企业资本金也都在50%以上，这个时候是比 较丰富的。但是，过了十年，不管国有企业还是民营企业，包括上市公司在内，我国的企业负债率都在70%左 右，它们的债务资本是净资本的200%，比美国、欧洲工商企业30%～40%的负债率高了1倍。这个问题长期存 在，其实就是中国企业效益问题、风险问题等各种比较脆弱问题的一个聚焦点。"黄奇帆说。 "所以，怎么样解决好中国企业，包括国有、民营、上市公司在内的企业资本金的持续形成机制，是国民经济体 制改革的重要环节，"他认为， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on various fiscal announcements, the report calculates the supply of government bonds and ultra - long bonds in Q1 2026 and interprets the key points of market - concerned supply [8]. - It analyzes the characteristics of government bond issuance in Q1 2026, including the situation of treasury bonds, local bonds, and makes supply forecasts [1][3][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds: In Q1, the number of issuances changes little, the single - issue scale rises and then falls, and there is room for acceleration in the future 3.1.1 Q1 Treasury Bond Plan: The number of issuances changes little, and 30y bonds use new codes - The number of treasury bond issuances in Q1 2026 is similar to that in the same period of 2025, with the number of coupon - bearing treasury bonds and savings bonds of each term remaining the same as in Q1 2025, and an additional 3M discount treasury bond issued in March 2026. The 50 - year treasury bond is postponed from February to March [9]. - 30y treasury bonds will use new codes. After the announcement, 250002 performed weakly, and 2500006 may continue to be the active bond in the short term. There is a risk of failure in the coupon - bond replacement of 30y ordinary treasury bonds [10]. 3.1.2 Single - issue Scale of Key - term Treasury Bonds: It rises first and then falls, and there may still be room for acceleration in the future - In January 2026, the single - issue scale of 2 - year and 10 - year coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025, which may be due to high maturity pressure, the need to form physical workloads earlier, and to make way for the issuance of special treasury bonds [15][16]. - The single - issue scale of 1 - year treasury bonds later decreased to 135 billion. If the issuance speed of 135 billion continues, the monthly average may be around 150 billion, which is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit rate. To catch up with the net financing progress in 2025 in Q1, the quarterly average single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds needs to reach 170 billion, indicating room for acceleration [18][19]. - Treasury bonds can use the remaining quota for issuance expansion before the Two Sessions. The remaining quota at the beginning of 2026 is expected to be around 580 billion, providing room for expansion [23]. 3.1.3 The quota of ultra - long special treasury bonds is pre - allocated but issued later - No special treasury bonds are scheduled for issuance in Q1. Ultra - long special treasury bonds show the characteristic of "quota pre - allocation but issuance postponement". The "Two - New" quota in 2026 is pre - allocated in a reduced scale but earlier, while the "Two - Important" quota is pre - allocated in a larger scale but later [25][29][30]. 3.2 Local Bonds: In Q1, the issuance scale is similar to that in the same period of 2025, the rhythm is earlier, and the terms vary across regions 3.2.1 Q1 Local Bond Plan: The issuance scale is basically the same as that in Q1 2025, and the supply is more concentrated in January - The planned issuance scale of the regions that have released plans is close to that in the same period of 2025. Affected by the Spring Festival shift, the issuance in January 2026 increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025 [31][32]. 3.2.2 Terms: Different regions show differentiation, and term shortening is not yet a general phenomenon - Regions with significantly shortened terms include Guangxi and Zhejiang, which do not arrange the issuance of 30y varieties and increase 10 - 20y varieties [32]. - Regions with little change in terms include Beijing and Shandong. Beijing's new special bonds still cover the full range of 1 - 30y terms, and Shandong's weighted average term is similar to that in Q1 2025 [33]. - Regions with significantly extended terms include Qingdao, which added 30y varieties that were not issued in 2025 [33]. 3.3 Q1 Supply Forecast: It is expected that the net financing of government bonds will be 3.6 trillion, and the issuance of ultra - long bonds will be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion 3.3.1 Government Bond Supply Forecast: The Q1 net financing is 3.6 trillion, including 2.15 trillion local bonds and 1.46 trillion treasury bonds - Local bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 2.15 trillion, with January and March being the supply peaks. The net financing in January, February, and March is expected to be 830 billion, 490 billion, and 840 billion respectively [38]. - Treasury bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 1.46 trillion. The single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds is assumed to be 135 billion for the remaining 3 issues in January, rising to 175 billion in February, and around 190 billion in March due to high maturity pressure [39]. 3.3.2 Ultra - long Bond Supply Forecast: The issuance in Q1 is 1.4 - 1.77 trillion, including 11.6 billion treasury bonds and 1.3 - 1.65 trillion local bonds - Ultra - long treasury bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be around 11.6 billion, with 32 billion, 32 billion, and 52 billion issued in January, February, and March respectively [42]. - Ultra - long local bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion, with different issuance scales calculated according to different reference term structures [43].

明明：综合判断，我们预计2026年我国GDP的增长目标仍会处于世界主要经济体的领先位置。 以下为对话全文，经21世纪经济报道记者整理。 谈国内经济整体预期： 财政政策将保持温和扩张 从驱动因素看，财政发力以及政策协同下的内需回暖和投资止跌回稳将是主要支撑；挑战则在于房地产 市场持续调整的影响、居民和企业信心修复节奏以及外部环境的不确定性。 21世纪经济报道记者余纪昕 2025年，国内资本市场表现出强劲韧性与活力。权益市场主要指数一度突破4000点，科技、银行等板块 表现亮眼；股债轮动之下，资金流向持续变化。站在"十五五"起点，中央经济工作会议已为2026年作出 部署，稳增长政策有望持续加码，市场信心有望进一步提升。同时，如何更好释放消费潜力、优化产业 结构，也将成为谱写高质量发展新篇章的关键动力。 在此背景下，21世纪经济报道专访了中信证券首席经济学家明明。明明指出，在"三驾马车"中，未来消 费将继续温和回升，成为经济增长的主要动力。新增专项债额度有望达到5万亿元，用于"两新""两 重"建设的超长期特别国债规模或将维持在1.3万亿元。在政策靠前发力下，或带动长债收益率全年呈 现"先下后上"的走势。 21世纪： ...

2026 年 01 月 05 日 宏 观 研 究 开年政策如何做？ ——从部委工作会议看政策脉络 一：财政货币协同，重在结构和效率 财政扩张从抬规模到提效率。2026 年财政扩张的重心逐步从总量 加码向结构增效转型，债务工具将加强协同以扩大乘数效应。在财政 工作的重点任务方面，财政从重投资转向投资、消费并重的趋势延续， 财政资金投向的主体预计进一步向居民倾斜、领域上侧重民生保障。 宏 观 专 题 货币更注重与财政协同。政府预计仍是 2026 年加杠杆的主体，而 央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力，在政府加杠杆放缓的时段维持 利率的平稳。货币政策预计有三个特点，一是传统产能扩张类信贷将 继续压降；二是央行对于银行负债端利率比价约束持续关注；三是货 币政策更要兼顾债务风险、汇率风险、银行息差等中长期变量。 二、扩内需：广义财政稳投资，补贴优化扩消费 投资要点： 广义财政扩张稳投资。中央财政和准财政工具直接托底但效果有 限，促进投资止跌回稳更重要的是充分发挥新增专项债作用，以"新 基建"、"绿色基建"稳投资既能在短期内促进投资止跌回稳，又能在 中长期促进产业转型。 补贴政策优化扩消费。商品消费重视补贴效用，服务消费支 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 再见 2025：信用债复盘 ——2025 年债市复盘系列之二 2、监管政策：2025 年，中央支持继续完善和落实一揽子化债方案，增量政策 相对有限。一是要求落实落细债务置换政策，二是将不新增隐性债务作为"铁 的纪律"，三是加快剥离地方融资平台政府融资功能，推动市场化转型，四是 加快消化清理地方政府拖欠企业账款。 ❖ 二、房地产：年末万科债券展期略超市场预期，政策持续推动市场止跌回稳 1、热点事件：2025 年，深铁集团为万科提供超 200 亿元借款，以助力其兑付 公开市场债券本息，但《框架协议》下的额度所剩无几，万科债券兑付面临流 动性紧张问题，年末万科公告债券展期，持有人会议仅通过延长宽限期议案。 2、监管政策：2025 年，房地产政策从需求、供给、房企端共同发力，持续推 动市场"止跌回稳"，构建市场发展新模式。需求端，以结构性调控为主，要 求充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力；供给端，高质量开展城市更新，加力 推进"好房子"建设；企业端，支持房企合理融资需求，防范其债务违约风险。 ❖ 三、金融：中航产融、天安财险、九台农商引关注，积极防范金融领域风险 1、热点 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货国债周报 发行规模扩张 机构配置意愿增强 20251228 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 国债期货价格 图：30年期国债期货收盘价略有反弹 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 本周债券市场整体运行平稳，发行规模显著扩张，利率债与信用债共发行881只，发行总额达11888.74亿元，显示各类主体 融资需求旺盛。而本周 ...

接下来，政府债券需统筹兼顾供给与需求、消费与投资，进一步优化投向、提升效率，将重点更加 聚焦投资于人，为投资于物锚定新方向，持续优化债券的额度、投向及运作模式。 一方面，在现有政策框架基础上扩大民生领域专项债、国债等资金的额度，并加强项目谋划与储 备，确保资金有效落地。维持较高的政府债券规模以增强财力，腾出更多资金用于解决群众急难愁盼的 民生项目和人力资本领域。此外，延续特别国债支持以旧换新政策，促进消费与投资的良性循环，并加 快布局数字、绿色、智能等新型消费领域的政府债券项目。可利用政府债券资金作为项目资本金、"债 券资金+社会资本"等杠杆撬动或引导模式，吸引社会资本参与民生、消费领域的项目投资运营。 另一方面，应积极拓展政府债券使用范围、创新政府债券品种，允许部分政府债券投向符合条件的 民生或人力资本。例如，可借鉴国外经验设立人力资本债券、社会债券、可持续发展债券等新品种，专 门用于育儿、教育、医疗、养老等特定领域。继续强化财政与金融的协同，如通过政府债券补充银行资 本金、设立产业引导基金、"政府债券+市场化融资"等方式，支持相关领域发展。在此过程中，需充分 调动各方主体的积极性，既要关注人的能力提升和潜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's plans for economic policy implementation in the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy Implementation - The government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the coming year [2]. - There is an expectation of a mild expansion in fiscal policy, reflected in an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt to support the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. - The fiscal policy will likely follow the "debt replacement first, then investment" approach, with a coordinated issuance of various types of bonds [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Issuance Plans - Special refinancing bonds worth 2 trillion yuan will be issued in the first and second quarters to alleviate local government hidden debt pressures [3]. - The new special bond quota is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, accelerating in the second quarter [3]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds may increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, starting in the second quarter, to work in parallel with special bonds [3]. Group 3: Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for enhancing policy effectiveness, with ongoing collaboration between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China [3]. - The central bank is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity environment to support the large-scale issuance of government bonds in the new year [3]. Group 4: VAT Law Implementation - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, emphasizing the need for effective legal support to ensure smooth implementation [4][5]. - The VAT Law, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, will maintain the current tax rate structure of 13%, 9%, and 6% [5].

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need for all departments to implement the overall requirements and policy orientation for economic work in the coming year, accelerating the formulation of specific implementation plans [1][2] - The meeting highlights the importance of cross-departmental collaboration to form a joint effort in promoting development, ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The fiscal policy is expected to moderately expand, with an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt to provide sustainable financial support for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3] Group 2 - In terms of debt replacement, 2 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds will be issued in the first and second quarters to alleviate local government hidden debt pressure [3] - The new quota for special bonds is expected to be 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, accelerating in the second quarter [3] - The issuance of ordinary government bonds will be slowed down to avoid concentrated supply shocks, ensuring balanced issuance of various bonds [3] Group 3 - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, emphasizing the need for effective implementation and legal guidance to protect taxpayer rights and create a fair competitive environment [4] - The VAT Law is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, maintaining the current tax system framework and overall tax burden levels [4][5] - The VAT rates will remain at three levels: 13%, 9%, and 6%, with zero tax rates applied in certain situations, ensuring stability in tax revenue [4][5]