8月26日，中国银行（601988）发布公告称，已完成规模400亿元的减记型无固定期限资本债券（以下简称"永续债"）发行，前5年票 面利率2.16%，每5年调整一次，在第5年及之后的每个付息日附发行人赎回权。 同日，农业银行（601288）披露，该行已全额赎回2020年8月20日在全国银行间债券市场簿记发行的规模350亿元永续债。 "近年来，商业银行盈利面临压力，通过利润留存补充资本空间缩窄，发行永续债、二级资本债可以从外源性渠道丰富资本金来源， 提升经营的稳健性。"中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示。 事实上，这已不是中国银行第一次发债。5月26日，中国银行曾发行500亿元减记型二级资本债券。此前，工商银行、建设银行分别于 5月13日、5月19日各自完成发行400亿元无固定期限资本债券。除国有大行外，浦发银行、招商银行、中信银行等股份制银行也于近 期密集发行"二永债"（即二级资本债和永续债）补充资本。 可以看到，今年以来，国有大型银行资本实力得到显著增强。除通过永续债、二级资本债等工具补充其他资本外，核心一级资本方 面，财政部年内发行两期特别国债，并于6月完成对首批国有大行的注资， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of deposit transfer continues, with a stronger momentum in July than the same period last year. In July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.56 trillion yuan, reaching a four - year high. The growth rate of resident deposits slightly declined, while the growth rate of non - bank deposits significantly rebounded to 15% [2][12]. - The money - making effect in the bond market has declined, and funds are more likely to flow into the "fixed income +" and equity markets. Since 2025, the bond market has entered a "three - low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility. The scale growth rates of bond funds and money market funds have declined, and there has been redemption pressure since July. The growth rate of fixed - income wealth management products has also slowed down. The market risk preference has continuously increased, and the net value of equity funds has maintained high - speed growth. The growth of equity and hybrid wealth management products is not obvious, but their yields have been rising. The transferred deposits have flowed into non - bank institutions but not significantly into wealth management products, indicating that both financial institutions and residents' deposits are flowing into "fixed income +" and equity assets, which are important driving forces for the current bull market in equities [2][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. It is recommended to control the duration, allocate anti - decline medium - and short - duration credit bonds. Asset management institutions with longer durations can seize the opportunity of loose funds during the initial issuance of special treasury bonds to reduce the duration. Stable - liability allocation investors are advised to moderately increase their allocation of 10Y treasury bonds in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and 30Y treasury bonds in the range of 2.0 - 2.05% [3][21][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the market risk preference further increased, the equity market rose sharply, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure, with the yield curve steepening. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively. The deposit transfer continued in July, with a stronger intensity than last year. The money - making effect in the bond market declined, and funds flowed into the "fixed income +" and equity markets [11][12][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. The 7 - month social financing and credit data released this week were lower than expected, and domestic demand weakened, but the bond market was insensitive to the positive fundamentals. The overnight capital price increased marginally during the tax period, but the central bank maintained its supportive attitude, and the liquidity environment remained relatively abundant. It is expected that the central bank will continue to support the market during the initial issuance of 10 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds next week [3][21][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds this week, and the funding rate increased. From August 11 to August 15, R001 and DR001 increased by 10bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.44% and 1.40%. The issuance rate of 3M certificates of deposit fluctuated upwards and then declined, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate first increased, then decreased, and then slightly rebounded. By August 15, the transfer discount price of 1M national - share bank acceptance bills was 0.87%, a 10bp decrease compared to August 8 [25][26]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields increased this week. Except for the 3m and 3y tenors, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds increased. Except for the 3y - 1y, 7y - 5y, and 30 - 20y term spreads, other key - term treasury bond term spreads widened. As of August 15, the yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.75% and 2.05%. The term spread between them widened by 2bp to 30bp, which is at a medium - to - high percentile level in history [34]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the median durations of all - sample bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased, and the divergence slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds rebounded, and the spreads between 50Y - 30Y and 20Y - 30Y treasury bonds widened. The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.5%, and the exchange leverage ratio remained flat at 122.4%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [44]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased this week. From August 11 to August 15, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 3791 billion yuan, a decrease of 2461 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - based financial bonds all decreased. Next week, new 10Y treasury bonds and 30Y special treasury bonds will be issued for the first time. The issuance scale of local government bonds will increase, and the planned issuance of policy - based financial bonds is 340 billion yuan. This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit turned negative, and the issuance rate slightly increased to 1.61% [59][62][64]. 3.3 Economic Data - In July, loans showed negative growth, but the growth rate of social finance still had resilience. The growth of social retail sales further slowed down, and the decline in real estate investment widened. Since August, port throughput has returned to strength, and industrial production has marginally recovered. The high - frequency infrastructure and price data this week showed that the mill operating rate rebounded, vegetable prices continued to rise, and asphalt prices continued to fall [69][70][74]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - In July, the core CPI in the United States reached a six - month high, and retail sales achieved stable growth. The Fed's Daly hinted at a possible policy easing. In the overseas bond market, the bond markets in China and Japan declined, while most emerging markets rose. The spread between 10Y US and Chinese treasury bonds widened [81][82][84]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index strengthened, closing at 4202.4 points on August 15, 2025, a 2.4% increase compared to August 8. This week, Shanghai gold slightly strengthened, while the Nanhua Pig Index and Shanghai gold weakened. The performance of major asset classes this week was: CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Crude oil > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Shanghai gold > Pigs [85]. 3.6 Policy Review - On August 15, the People's Bank of China released the "2025 Second - Quarter China Monetary Policy Implementation Report", elaborating on the implementation effects of the moderately loose monetary policy in the first half of the year. On August 12, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service - Industry Business Entities", and three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy". Also on August 12, the "Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released, announcing a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff on each other's goods [88][90][92].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

Group 1: Tax Revenue Insights - Personal income tax (PIT) increased by 8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, despite overall tax revenue declining by 1.2%[3] - Value-added tax (VAT) grew by 2.8%, while corporate income tax (CIT) saw a decline of 1.9%[7] - Non-tax revenue turned negative, with a 3.7% year-on-year decrease in June, primarily due to reduced contributions from state-owned assets and improved business environment leading to lower fees and penalties[28] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure and Investment Trends - General fiscal expenditure rose by 17.6% year-on-year in June, significantly up from 5.3% for infrastructure investment, which fell by 3.9% compared to the previous month[4] - The acceleration in fiscal spending is largely attributed to a one-time injection of special bonds into commercial banks, with actual growth being slower when excluding this factor[34] - Special bonds are increasingly being used for debt repayment, with 46.7% of newly issued bonds in July allocated for this purpose, compared to only 41.7% for project construction[51] Group 3: Future Fiscal Outlook - The fiscal revenue and expenditure are expected to face pressure in the second half, with projected year-on-year growth rates of -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure[5] - The anticipated budget gap for the year is estimated at 516.6 billion yuan for revenue and 547.2 billion yuan for expenditure, with limited necessity for additional deficits[5] - The government plans to utilize fiscal reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises, to cover a projected 120 billion yuan shortfall due to new subsidies[69]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for policy support to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% after a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [1][5]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target [5][7]. - The GDP deflator index in Q2 fell by 1.2%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, leading to a nominal GDP growth of only 3.9% [5][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy [7][8]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half, with significant growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and furniture [8][11]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8%, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [11][19]. - Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [11][19]. Export Dynamics - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [15][19]. - The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [15][19]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending and manufacturing investment in the second half [19][20]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on retail sales is expected to diminish in the latter half of the year due to lower funding and higher base effects from last year [19][20]. - Real estate sales and prices are showing signs of weakness, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% in the first half [23][24]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, given the strong economic foundation laid in the first half [27][28]. - Potential policy directions include optimizing existing programs like the "trade-in" initiative and addressing restrictions on consumer spending [29][30]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key area of focus, with ongoing projects and new financing tools being introduced to support technology and consumption [30][31]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates [34][35]. - The article suggests that the central bank may take a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on maintaining stability in the currency exchange rate [35][36]. Structural Issues - The article highlights that the main challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output-related, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic and international circulation [26][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance of China in the first half of 2025, highlighting a slight decline in public budget revenue while expenditures remain strong, supported by increased government bond issuance and proactive fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and economic recovery [2][4]. Fiscal Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's general public budget revenue was approximately 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - Public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, indicating sustained fiscal spending [2]. - The issuance of government bonds, including 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds (up 35.28% year-on-year) and 2.16 trillion yuan in new local special bonds (up 45% year-on-year), has supported key spending areas [2][5]. Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year, focusing on accelerating budget execution and improving fund utilization efficiency [2][9]. - The fiscal deficit is set at 4% of GDP, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special bonds and 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [5][6]. Consumption Support - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan in super long-term special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, with 162 billion yuan already disbursed in the first half of the year [8][9]. - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 30.7% year-on-year, while communication equipment retail sales grew by 24.1%, driven by the consumption upgrade policy [8]. Future Outlook - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the consumption environment and optimize supply through new policies, particularly in major cities with high population bases and growth potential [9][10]. - Suggestions for further measures include providing subsidies to families with two or more children and expanding the "old-for-new" subsidy to service consumption to stimulate economic growth [10].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of the year, the issuance of national bonds reached a record high of 7.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 20,547 million yuan or 35.28% year-on-year, with an average issuance interest rate of 1.52%, down 43 basis points [1] - The average bidding multiple for book-entry national bonds was 3.03 times, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Special bonds for state-owned banks' core tier one capital were issued successfully, totaling 500 billion yuan, completed in four phases from late April to early June [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to complete the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support key projects [3] - The issuance of new local government special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 45% increase year-on-year, playing a positive role in infrastructure and public welfare [3] - The management of special bond usage has shifted from a "positive list" to a "negative list," allowing more projects to apply for funding, excluding only non-revenue projects and certain restricted areas [5] Group 3 - The scope for using special bonds as project capital has expanded from 17 to 22 industries, with 191.7 billion yuan issued for this purpose in the first half of the year, a 16% increase [7] - Policies now allow special bonds to be used for land reserves and to support local governments in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing, promoting a stable real estate market [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure, with the 10Y Treasury yield rising above 1.7% and the 30Y Treasury yield above 1.9%. If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive arrangements on the demand side, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the阶段性 high in March 2025; if the policy to expand domestic demand at the Political Bureau meeting is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery [1][2][3]. Summary by Section 1. Funds Price - The central bank continuously withdrew funds. During the statistical period from July 18 to July 24, 2025, the central bank's net withdrawal of funds in the open market exceeded 50 billion yuan. On the one hand, it was due to the maturity of large - scale previous tax - period injections, and on the other hand, it might be an attempt to cool the equity market indirectly. The funds price rose significantly on July 24, with DR007 quickly rising from below 1.5% to nearly 1.6% [1][8]. 2. Primary Market - During the statistical period, 90 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 940.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 769.1 billion yuan. The scale of new local special bonds continued to increase, but the subscription sentiment for ultra - long - term Treasury bonds remained weak. On July 24, the annual yield of the 30Y special Treasury bond was 1.97%, 0.5 - 1.0bp higher than the secondary - market trading yield [1][10][11]. 3. Secondary Market - During the statistical period, bond yields across all tenors increased, mainly affected by three factors: the strengthening "anti - involution" signal and the continuation of supply - side capacity - reduction policies; the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, which boosted fixed - asset investment from the demand side and triggered expectations of a "grand infrastructure era"; and the sudden tightening of the funds market, combined with increased redemption pressure on bond funds and wealth management products. By the end of the statistical period, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields had reached 1.7% and 1.9% respectively [1][12]. 4. Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: In the past 1 - 2 weeks, the fundamentals mainly focused on domestic "anti - involution" and infrastructure, and economic expectations have risen rapidly. The July PMI will initially verify these optimistic expectations. Future information to watch includes changes in the trade environment. A concession from the Trump administration may boost market risk appetite, while increased trade pressure may repair bond - market sentiment [3][17][19]. - **Policy**: At the central level, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are drafting a revised draft of the Price Law to regulate market price order. As the July Political Bureau meeting approaches, the "anti - involution" signal may be further strengthened, and more attention should be paid to the meeting's deployment of demand - side policies. If the meeting makes positive arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure. The possibility of incremental monetary policies in July is limited, with a focus on implementing existing policies and flexible adjustments, especially the dynamics of restarting Treasury bond trading [3][17][19]. - **Funds**: The funds market may tighten at the end of the month [3][20]. - **Summary**: If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive demand - side arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the 2025 March high; if the policy to expand domestic demand is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery, and it is difficult to break below the June volatility center without monetary - policy support [3][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative issuance of local government bonds reached 5.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.18%, hitting a record high for the same period. The issuance of government special bonds for implicit debt replacement reached 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan, and the implicit debt replacement was basically completed within the year [2]. - The third - quarter planned issuance scale will not change much compared with the first and second quarters. The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented more quickly. In the short term, the downward space for the issuance interest rate of local government bonds is limited, and there is a possibility of periodic fluctuations. The strict supervision of local government debt will continue, and the debt - resolution thinking will shift to "both risk prevention and development promotion", with further differentiation in debt - resolution resources and local investment and financing space [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Implement a more proactive fiscal policy, arrange a larger - scale government bond, and continue to standardize and promote the work of land reserve special bonds. In 2025, the fiscal deficit rate is set at about 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan. The total new government debt scale in 2025 is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. Policies are also introduced to support land reserve work and promote the stabilization of the real estate market [4][5]. - Promote local implementation of the implicit debt replacement policy and improve government investment efficiency. From 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan of local government debt quota is approved each year to replace the stock implicit debt. In the first half of 2025, 90% of the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement quota has been issued, effectively relieving the local debt - resolution pressure [6]. - Improve the local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system, optimize the special bond management mechanism, and strengthen the in - depth supervision of local government special bonds. The "iron - clad rule" of no new implicit debt is emphasized, and the accountability for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution is strengthened. Measures are also taken to optimize the special bond management mechanism and prevent new implicit debt [8]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 3.2.1 Issuance Overview - In the first half of 2025, 1,086 local government bonds were issued, with a total amount of 5.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.18%. Special bonds accounted for 78.52% of the newly issued local government bonds. Newly issued bonds totaled 2.61 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds totaled 2.88 trillion yuan, with 1.80 trillion yuan for implicit debt replacement [11][12]. - The land reserve special bonds totaled 1,708.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an accelerated issuance in the second quarter. The net financing amount was 4.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 135.69% [12]. - The issuance proportion of local government bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased significantly, with a weighted average issuance term of 15.88 years. Economically active regions such as Guangdong and Fujian were the main issuers of new bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [16]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate and Spread Analysis - The average issuance interest rate of local government bonds decreased in the second quarter of 2025 after a slight increase in February. The average issuance interest rates in the first and second quarters were 1.94% and 1.85% respectively [22]. - The spreads in the first and second quarters of 2025 widened quarter - on - quarter, with significant differentiation among provinces. In the second quarter of 2025, Inner Mongolia had the highest average issuance spread for 10 - year local bonds, followed by Hunan and Guangxi [25]. 3.2.3 Investment Areas of Local Government Special Bonds - In the first half of 2025, infrastructure remained the main focus of special bond funds, and many cities restarted the issuance of land reserve special bonds. The top three investment areas were transportation infrastructure construction, urban - rural development, and railway tracks, accounting for 48.43% of the issuance amount. The issuance amount of land reserve special bonds accounted for 6.80% [30]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - The issuance rhythm in the third quarter is expected to be similar to that in the first and second quarters. The planned issuance of local government bonds in the third quarter is 2.73 trillion yuan, including 1.49 trillion yuan of new special bonds [33]. - The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented more quickly, and the acceleration of construction projects in the second half of the year may drive social investment. The deficit rate in 2025 has reached about 4%, and the new local special bonds are arranged at 4.40 trillion yuan [34]. - In the short term, the downward space for the issuance interest rate of local government bonds is limited, and there is a possibility of periodic fluctuations. The local debt - resolution thinking is shifting to "both risk prevention and development promotion", with further differentiation in debt - resolution resources and local investment and financing space [36][37].