Core Viewpoint - The report outlines an optimistic economic outlook for 2026, emphasizing a proactive and expansionary policy stance to ensure a strong start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" with a GDP growth target around 5% [1][4][41] Policy Perspective - The main policy tone for 2026 is set to be positive and expansionary, with a focus on ensuring a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - Key strategies include promoting domestic demand, stabilizing real estate, and planning new major infrastructure projects [1][5] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in 2026 [2][12] - It is projected that there may be 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50-100 basis points and 1-2 interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points [12][15] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is anticipated to be proactive and expansionary, with a projected fiscal deficit rate around 4% and special bonds reaching approximately 5 trillion [2][30] - The total fiscal expenditure is expected to reach 43 trillion, reflecting an increase of 1.13 trillion year-on-year [30][29] Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to remain around 5%, with quarterly growth rates projected at 5.2%, 5.0%, 5.1%, and 4.9% respectively [4][41] - Inflation is expected to remain low, with a projected annual deflation index of around 0.1% [4] Investment Focus - The focus will be on expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumer spending, real estate stabilization, and infrastructure investment [5][29] - Specific measures to boost consumption include extending the "old-for-new" policy and enhancing service consumption [5][29] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms will continue to be emphasized, particularly in enhancing the quality of life and addressing demographic challenges [8][41] - The government aims to optimize the allocation of resources towards human investment and social welfare [8][29] Key Events Timeline - A series of important economic meetings and reports are scheduled throughout 2026, including the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress [3][4]

● 本报记者 熊彦莎 专家表示，国债密集发行是积极财政政策持续发力的重要体现。后续积极财政政策取向料延续，应用好 用足特别国债、专项债等工具，加强国债资金监管考核，确保政策效能充分释放，护航稳增长。 发行节奏加快 国债密集发行彰显出积极财政政策持续发力。专家认为，后续财政政策将延续积极取向，通过扩大债券 工具使用、优化资金投向，进一步巩固经济稳中有进势头。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）财政部部长蓝佛安近日表示，要坚持积极取向，加强逆周期和跨周期调节，根据形势变 化，合理确定赤字率和举债规模，组合运用预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具，用好政策空间， 保持支出强度，形成对经济社会发展的持续支撑。 作为"十五五"开局之年，2026年的财政政策备受关注。袁海霞认为，明年应用好用足特别国债、专项债 等工具，提振社会信心，扩大有效需求，进一步发挥财政政策稳增长、扩内需、惠民生的作用。 在资金投向上，袁海霞建议，提升财政发力的民生含量，同时聚焦现代化产业体系与基础设施升级，坚 持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，继续加大支持经济转型发展中的新领域。 近段时间，国债发行较为密集。根据财政部2025年第四季度国债发行计划，今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, resulting in a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2023, with expectations to meet the annual growth target of around 5% [1][12]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has utilized various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and has improved the monetary policy framework to enhance execution and transmission [2][8]. - As of September, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [2][12]. - The cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Structural Support and Financing - By the end of September, the balance of structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting key areas of the economy approached 4 trillion yuan, indicating a focus on guiding financial institutions to support major national strategies and weak sectors [3][10]. - The financing structure is improving, with significant year-on-year growth in technology loans (11.8%), green loans (22.9%), inclusive loans (11.2%), elderly care loans (58.2%), and digital economy loans (12.9%), all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [2][3]. Group 3: Coordination of Policies - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies has strengthened, with the PBOC emphasizing the need to flexibly manage open market operations to smooth out short-term fluctuations from fiscal tax revenues and government bond issuances [8][10]. - The issuance of special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan has been aimed at enhancing the capital of state-owned commercial banks, thereby improving their capacity to support the real economy and mitigate financial risks [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Challenges - Despite the positive growth indicators, the PBOC acknowledges ongoing risks and challenges, including external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, necessitating a balanced approach in future policy implementation [12][12]. - The PBOC plans to deepen financial reforms and enhance the monetary policy framework to ensure effective transmission mechanisms while balancing short-term and long-term economic goals [12][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market and stock market, highlighting the mixed performance of long-term bond yields and the slight decline in the stock market due to rumors and regulatory changes affecting redemption fees [3][6]. Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after 117.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [3]. - The liquidity in the market is stabilizing, with the rates for DR001 and DR007 both around 1.51% [4]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.803% after initial movements [6]. - The article notes that the special government bonds (特6) are not set to be renewed next year, which caused a brief spike in yields before returning to previous levels [7]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market saw a slight decline, attributed to the impact of new redemption regulations and rumors regarding the special government bonds [6]. - The A-share market has been fluctuating around the 4000-point mark for four consecutive days, indicating a lack of decisive movement [7]. Interest Rate Trends - The weighted rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.54%, R007 at 1.51%, and R014 at 1.53%, with slight changes noted in the past 30 days [5]. - The government bond yields for different maturities show a range of rates, with the 10-year bond at 1.8040% and the ultra-long bond at 2.1525% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Debt Management Department" by the Ministry of Finance signifies a dedicated approach to managing government debt, addressing the increasing scale of debt and the associated risks [1][2]. Group 1: Government Debt Management - The new department will unify the management of various government debt instruments, including national bonds, special bonds, and local government bonds, enhancing policy coordination [1]. - As of the end of 2024, the total legal government debt balance is projected to reach 82.1 trillion yuan, with local government hidden debt at 10.5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant scale of government liabilities [1]. - The establishment of a specialized agency reflects the need for improved oversight and management of government debt, particularly in light of rising debt levels and the challenges posed by insufficient effective demand in the economy [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Management Mechanism - The current debt management mechanism is not fully developed, leading to the emergence of new hidden debts and the persistence of borrowing through financing platforms [2]. - The Ministry of Finance aims to create a long-term regulatory mechanism for government debt management, focusing on transparency, lower costs, and a steady pace of debt management [2]. - Key tasks include eliminating local government hidden debt, reforming financing platforms, and establishing a comprehensive monitoring and regulatory system for local debt [2].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].

Local Government Bonds - The new transfer limit of 500 billion yuan for local government bonds has two main features: expanded funding usage and a total transfer amount that remains the same as last year at 500 billion yuan[1][12]. - In Q3 2025, local government bond issuance reached a peak of 30,430 billion yuan, but net financing decreased to 17,385 billion yuan due to a significant increase in maturing bonds[2][21]. - Despite the new 500 billion yuan transfer limit, the net financing pressure for local government bonds in Q4 is manageable, estimated at around 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4,385 billion yuan from the previous quarter[2][25]. National Bonds - In Q3 2025, national bonds saw a record net issuance of 20,192 billion yuan, an increase of 1,766 billion yuan year-on-year, and 1,071 billion yuan from the previous quarter[3][32]. - The remaining net financing for national bonds in Q4 is projected at 12,600 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 1,712 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 7,592 billion yuan[3][38]. Policy Financial Bonds - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in Q3 2025 was 7,602 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to previous years, particularly in August when it reached 3,924 billion yuan[4][43]. - For Q4, the net financing scale of policy financial bonds may exceed seasonal norms, potentially reaching 6,800 billion yuan, which is an increase of about 1,704 billion yuan compared to the average from 2020 to 2024[6][48].

Group 1 - The economic internal pressure is gradually emerging as the "cyclical" forces weaken, with high export growth driven by the shift from short-term "export grabbing" logic to medium-term logic of "industrialization acceleration in emerging countries" and China's market share replacement in emerging markets [2][10] - Domestic demand may continue to be under pressure, reflected in the decline of equipment renewal cycles and reduced new construction, leading to potential further downturns in manufacturing and real estate investment [2][22] - The profit margin for enterprises remains under pressure, with August industrial enterprise profits rebounding significantly (+21 percentage points to 19.8%), primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors, while cost rates remain high at 85.6% [3][31] Group 2 - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may have a time lag in stimulating the economy, with the "demand overdraw" effect from previous policies becoming more apparent, potentially leading to weaker consumer goods consumption and manufacturing investment [4][83] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, and many regions have suspended national subsidies, indicating a potential decline in manufacturing investment and consumer goods retail growth [4][38] - The implementation of "incremental policies" is slow, with limited immediate impact on the economy, as new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan are expected to take time to translate into substantial economic support [5][84] Group 3 - Expectations for inflation support are diminishing, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, leading to a reduced impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [6][59] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are expected to show weak recovery characteristics, with PPI growth being limited by lower capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][63] - Economic growth's internal momentum is expected to decline, with a focus on the effectiveness of incremental policies in supporting domestic demand, while external demand may still show resilience [8][71]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - The construction index increased by 4.6% recently, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, indicating a positive market trend for the construction sector [1][4] - There is an expectation for stable growth in infrastructure in Q4, with a focus on investment opportunities in the western regions of China, particularly in Xinjiang and Tibet [2][23] - The government has issued guidelines to combat price competition issues, emphasizing the importance of anti-involution investment themes [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Q4 Infrastructure Stimulus Expectations - Economic data from July to August 2025 showed a slowdown, prompting expectations for increased infrastructure policies in Q4 [13] - Special bonds and long-term treasury bonds are being issued at a rapid pace, with special bonds totaling 3.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 83.6% of the annual quota [14][15] - The western region's fixed asset investment grew by 6.6%, surpassing the national average, with significant growth in provinces like Tibet and Xinjiang [23][24] 2. Governance of Price Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address price competition issues, promoting fair market practices [3][25] - The report suggests focusing on four investment themes related to anti-involution, including price elasticity and downstream profit improvement [26][27] 3. Nuclear Power Sector Insights - Key breakthroughs in nuclear fusion technology are expected to enhance the attractiveness of the nuclear power sector, with significant investments planned [29] - The report identifies leading companies in the nuclear power construction sector, such as China Nuclear Engineering and China Energy Engineering [30][31] 4. Market Review - The construction index's recent performance indicates a strong market, with notable stock gains from companies like China Nuclear Engineering and Xinjiang Communications Construction [33][34] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment in high-growth regions and suggests focusing on companies involved in major projects in the western regions [38][39] - It also highlights the potential of the nuclear power sector and emerging business directions, recommending companies like China Nuclear Engineering and Libat [40]

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 409 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 10, with a total bid amount of 409 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 409 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 600 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 191 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw continued easing, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions dropping close to 1.30% [3] - The overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system also fell to 1.3%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions faced a three-day actual borrowing period for overnight funds due to a weekend holiday, with the latest quotes remaining above 1.5% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.12% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.66%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline: 30-year main contract down 0.49%, 10-year down 0.06%, 5-year down 0.09%, and 2-year down 0.05% [13] Recent Developments in Government Bonds - The issuance of special long-term government bonds is nearing completion, with a 50-year special bond issued on October 10 at a weighted average yield of 2.2977%, slightly higher than the previous day's closing yield of 2.2975% [14] - The yield on 30-year government bonds increased by approximately 1 basis point following the issuance [14] - The People's Bank of China reported that as of August 2025, the loan balance for Shanghai's "Five Major Articles" reached 4.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, outpacing the growth rate of various loans by 6.6 percentage points [14] Regulatory and Market News - The former head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission's issuance review committee is under investigation for serious violations of duty [15] - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's market regulatory authority for failing to legally declare its acquisition of Autotalks, potentially violating antitrust laws [15] Global Macro Developments - Japan and the U.S. reaffirmed their commitment to trade agreements, with Japan's chief negotiator confirming ongoing discussions to strengthen economic ties [16] - Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that inflation is not as concerning as previously expected, with expectations for further rate cuts as part of risk management [16] - Bridgewater's founder Dalio warned about the rapid growth of U.S. government debt, likening the current atmosphere to the years leading up to World War II [16] Bond Market Highlights - The total amount raised by securities firms through bond issuance this year reached 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.22% [18] - New home sales in major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen saw a year-on-year increase at the start of October, indicating structural differentiation in the real estate market [18] - Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to auction 4.3 trillion yen in short-term government bonds on October 17 [18] - Japan's 5-year government bond yield reached 1.24%, the highest since July 2008 [18]