1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies this year, with policy synergy being a highlight. The capital scale in three aspects has reached new highs, and the central government has arranged 100 billion yuan to launch a package of fiscal - financial cooperation policies to boost domestic demand [18][2][16]. - The Fed's monetary policy outlook faces increased uncertainty due to a weakening labor market and rising geopolitical risks, and there may be a risk of stagflation in the US [33]. - The impact of the Two Sessions on the bond market is generally neutral. The bond market may continue to fluctuate, and future focus should be on changes in risk appetite, market expectations for interest rate cuts, and price recovery [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 slowed to 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in Q3 2025 and 5.4% in Q4 2024 [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a decline [1]. - In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7.2208 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The government will continue to implement more active fiscal policies this year, with the total expenditure exceeding 30 trillion yuan, new government bond issuance reaching 11.89 trillion yuan, and central government transfer payments to local governments reaching 10.42 trillion yuan [2][18]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have adjusted trading limits, margin ratios, and handling fees for some futures contracts [3][4]. - A large amount of funds have flowed into oil and gas assets through ETFs and linked funds, but the "return dilution" phenomenon has reappeared [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 8, the retail prices of pure gold jewelry of major domestic brands were around 1,583 - 1,590 yuan per gram, and some brands have announced or plan to raise prices [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3.4278 trillion US dollars, and the central bank's gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces month - on - month [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - The coking coal market in February 2026 showed a weak and volatile trend, and in March, the supply - demand fundamentals improved, but prices may fluctuate rather than rise unilaterally [9]. - Due to the reduction in nickel ore production quotas, Indonesia's nickel processing capacity utilization rate may drop to 70 - 75% in 2026, and nickel ore imports are expected to increase significantly [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices will be raised at 24:00 on March 9. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices have reached record weekly highs [9]. - Due to the conflict in Iran, major oil - producing countries have cut production, and the prices of crude oil and natural gas have risen [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In February 2026, the sales volume of pig products of three listed pig enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year performance varied [13]. - Ukraine's grain exports for the 2026/27 season are expected to include 14 million tons of wheat, 25 million tons of corn, and 2.5 million tons of barley [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature in the central bank's open market [15]. - The central bank carried out 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on March 6, with a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan on that day [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - Institutions predict that the Spring Festival effect will drive a significant year - on - year rebound in February's CPI, and rising non - ferrous metal prices will support the increase in PPI [16]. - The central bank will implement moderately loose monetary policies this year, use various policy tools flexibly, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It will also support the capital market and expand the scale of re - loans [16][17]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China remained in a consolidation state, with slightly differentiated yields of major interest - rate bonds, and short - term bonds performed better [26]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, and the convertible bond index rose [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 22 points at the 16:30 close on March 9, and the US dollar index fell 0.09% in New York trading [31]. - China's foreign exchange reserves have increased for seven consecutive months, and gold reserves have increased for 16 consecutive months [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that there may be five major expected differences in the market, and there is a risk of "insufficient policy momentum" in the second half of the year [33]. - CICC and other institutions believe that the economic growth target in the government work report takes into account long - term sustainability and short - term necessity, and policies focus on both quantity and quality [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 9, 277 bonds will be listed, 123 bonds will be issued, 99 bonds will make payments, and 479 bonds will repay principal and interest [36]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The CSRC will improve the market - stabilizing mechanism, develop diversified equity financing, and support the development of the futures and derivatives market [38]. - The central bank will cooperate with the CSRC to support the capital market and enhance its stability and vitality [38]. - The A - share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.38%, and some sectors such as power grid equipment and medical stocks performing strongly [39].