Economic Concerns - The Nasdaq has dropped over 12% in the past four weeks, indicating recession fears driven by liquidity tightening amid economic data weakness[2] - The Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 2025 GDP forecast from +3.9% to -2.4%, primarily due to declines in consumer spending and net exports[2] Consumer and Investment Trends - January retail sales and real personal consumption growth in the U.S. were significantly below expectations, with credit card delinquencies reaching the highest level since 2012[3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index fell by 6.5% in February, indicating a downturn in business investment intentions[3] Policy Impacts - Trump's policies are seen as contributing to economic slowdown, with tariffs and immigration policies having significant negative effects on growth and inflation[3] - The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could increase inflation by 0.86 percentage points and reduce GDP by 0.1 percentage points by 2025[4] Market Liquidity and External Factors - Concerns over U.S. liquidity are rising, with the Fed continuing its balance sheet reduction and a significant amount of corporate debt maturing in Q2[6] - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with funds moving away from U.S. equities towards non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe[7] Future Strategies - To counter recession fears, the Trump administration may focus on increasing private sector investment and expediting tax cuts to boost market confidence[8] - The potential for a recession could lead to a significant political shift in the midterm elections if not managed carefully[6]