交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：海外银刷新历史最高后回落，获利了结推动金价回落；美国三大股指小 幅收跌，欧洲三大股指涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.55 个基点报4.136%；美元指数涨0.55%报99.40，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1380； COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%报3991.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国10月消费者信心、9月政府预算、美联储委员密集讲话、欧 盟财长会议。海外银刷新历史最高后回落，风险偏好回落，金价冲高回落。沪金溢 价迅速扩大至-8元/克。避险情绪和宽松预期仍 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月30日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国政府停摆担忧推高金价，金价再创新高；美国三大股指小幅上涨， 欧洲三大股指收盘小幅收涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌4.26个基 点报4.137%；美元指数跌0.26%报97.94，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1294；COMEX黄 金期货涨1.42%报3862.90美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中国9月PMI、日央行会议纪要、美国8月职位空缺、美联储和欧 央行委员密集讲话。美国政府停摆担忧推高金价，地缘冲突依旧，金价走高。沪金 溢价收敛至-9.4元/克。美国政府关门担忧仍存， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国GDP增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，10月降息预期降温，金 价回升；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线收跌；美债收益率多数上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.93个基点报4.158%；美元指数涨0.60%报98.47，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1452；COMEX黄金期货涨0.33%报3780.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货854.72，现货850.58，基差-4.14，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单60543千克，增加1530千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar, gold prices declined. However, high expectations of interest rate cuts, supply concerns (as evidenced by copper prices rising over 3% to a more than one - year high), and the expansion of the Shanghai gold premium may support gold prices. Gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult under the current global situation [4]. - For silver, silver prices also dropped as the US dollar rebounded. But it may be supported by supply concerns and high interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US dollar rebounded, causing gold prices to fall. US stocks slightly declined, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields rose (10 - year Treasury yield increased by 4.24 basis points to 4.149%), the US dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, and the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce. The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US dollar rebounded, leading to a drop in silver prices. US stocks declined across the board, European stocks had mixed performance, US Treasury yields fell (10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 4.06 basis points to 4.106%), the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.23, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.11% to $44.115 per ounce. The basis was - 67, and the Shanghai silver premium slightly expanded to around 240 yuan per kilogram. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Positive factors include global turmoil with remaining risk - aversion sentiment, strong expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the implementation of Trump's new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise easily and fall difficult [10]. - **Silver**: Positive factors are similar to those of gold, with tariff concerns having a stronger impact on silver prices. Negative factors are also the same as those of gold. The logic is that silver prices generally follow gold prices, and due to stronger tariff concerns, silver prices may see an expanded increase [13]. 3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 07:50, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting; the Alibaba 2025 Yunqi Conference will be held from September 24 - 26 in Hangzhou, the Xiaomi 17 series launch event and the 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held in Xi'an; at 14:00, Germany's October GfK consumer confidence index will be released; at 14:45, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazimir will present macro - expectations; at 15:30, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest - rate decision; at 16:00, the European Central Bank will publish its economic bulletin, and the Swiss National Bank President Schlegel will hold a press conference; at 20:15, Federal Reserve Governor Milan will participate in a Bloomberg TV program; at 20:20, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 20:30, the final value of the US second - quarter GDP, the preliminary value of August durable goods orders, the goods trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be released; at 21:00, New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the Fourth Annual Conference on the International Role of the US Dollar, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid (a 2025 FOMC voter) will speak; at 22:00, the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in August will be released, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on regulatory issues; at 01:00 the next day, former Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman for Supervision Barr will talk about bank stress tests; at 01:40, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech manuscript will be released; at 03:00 the next day, the Bank of Mexico will announce its interest - rate decision; at 03:30, San Francisco Fed President Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will speak [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.86, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1530 kilograms to 60543 kilograms, also a bearish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 67, which is a neutral factor. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 12756 kilograms to 1161799 kilograms, also a neutral factor [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Silver**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased, which is a bullish factor [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices dropped significantly with reduced positions. After the Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations, the positive news was exhausted, and the lack of spot support led copper prices back to a volatile trend. There is still a probability of triggering a recession expectation due to the slowdown of the US economy and the rapid decline of employment indicators. On the industrial fundamental side, the return of the peak season is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether there will be pre - holiday inventory reduction through stocking. The spot premium has fallen from a high level, and social inventory has increased. Although the smelting processing fee is low, the production remains stable. Globally, copper inventory is still not low. The total position of copper has dropped below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan, and spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - **PMI**: In August 2025, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.05% (up 0.7 percentage points month - on - month), while the US manufacturing level declined. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month), hitting a 9 - month low and staying below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4% (up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months [12]. - **Interest - rate cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP after highlighting economic slowdown risks and pressured employment data. The market had fully priced in the cut in advance, and the interest - rate cut path remained cautious, with a weakened impact on inflation expectations. The US economic data continued to slow down, and employment indicators dropped rapidly, increasing the risk of a recession [5][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper concentrate supply**: In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons (up 2.54% year - on - year), with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025 from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons (up 3.32% year - on - year), with a surplus of 25.1 million tons. China's copper concentrate imports also showed an increasing trend. In 2025 August, imports were 275.9 million tons (up 7.2% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month), with cumulative imports from January to August at 2005.4 million tons (up 7.9% year - on - year) [22][29]. - **TC**: On September 19, 2025, the SMM import copper concentrate index was - 40.8 dollars/dry ton (up 0.5 dollars/dry ton from the previous period). The 2025 long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [33]. - **Refined copper production**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 0.24%) but increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a growth of 12.30%). It is expected that in September, production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 4.48%) but increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.42%) [40]. - **Refined copper import and export**: In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (up 6.49% year - on - year) and exported 45.75 million tons (up 63.86% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 29.69 million tons (down 1.20% month - on - month but up 7.56% year - on - year), and exports soared to 11.84 million tons (up 49.86% month - on - month and 69.13% year - on - year) [46]. - **Scrap copper supply**: In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (up 13.26% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 19.01 million tons (up 3.73% month - on - month but down 2.36% year - on - year), and from January to July, cumulative imports were 133.55 million tons (down 0.77% year - on - year) [50]. - **Consumption end**: - **Power and grid investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 11687.22 billion yuan (up 12.14% year - on - year), and grid investment was 6082.58 billion yuan (up 15.26% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to July, power investment was 4288 billion yuan (up 3.4% year - on - year), and grid investment was 3315 billion yuan (up 12.5% year - on - year) [54]. - **Air - conditioner production**: In 2024 from January to December, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 26598.44 million units (up 9.7% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to August, it was 19964.62 million units (up 5.8% year - on - year), with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [57]. - **Automobile production**: In 2025 from January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively (up 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year). New energy vehicle production and sales were 962.5 million and 962 million vehicles respectively (up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year), with a new - car penetration rate of 45.5% [62]. - **Real estate**: In 2024 from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 7.37 billion square meters (down 27.7% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In August 2025, the completion area was 2.77 billion square meters (down 17% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year [64]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 57 million tons (up 1.17 million tons week - on - week). The LME copper inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 14.77 million tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.17 million tons to 10.58 million tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 6290 tons to 31.68 million tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 7.68 million tons (up 0.41 million tons from the previous week) [69]. - **CFTC non - commercial net position**: As of September 16, 2025, the CFTC non - commercial long - net position was 30348 lots (up 3107 lots week - on - week), with non - commercial long positions at 69370 lots (up 5077 lots week - on - week) and non - commercial short positions at 39022 lots (up 1970 lots week - on - week) [71]. - **Premium and discount**: As of September 19, 2025, the LME copper spot discount was - 64.9 dollars/ton. The Shanghai area's premium stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that next week, if the copper price remains around 80000 yuan/ton, the downstream's pre - holiday stocking sentiment may be better than expected; otherwise, it may decline [80]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - contract was 200 yuan/ton [82]. Market Outlook - The copper price dropped significantly with reduced positions, and the total position fell below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan. Spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 1、基本面：美联储如期降息25个基点，美联储给出的信号鹰鸽参半，金价回落；美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨6.12个基点 报4.089%；美元指数涨0.40%报97.03，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1023；COMEX 黄金期货跌0.82%报3694.60美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注欧央行行长讲话、英央行利率决议和会议纪要、欧央行官员密集 讲话。美联储会议如期降息，但信号未如市场预期鸽派，预期落地，金价回落。沪 金溢价继续收敛至-9元/克。金价情绪有所收敛，等待回落后机会。 2、基差：黄金期货835.08，现货832.55，基差- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is awaiting the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher gold and silver prices. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. With the approaching September Fed meeting, gold prices strengthened again before the meeting, and silver prices followed gold prices, with the sentiment remaining strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are still risks of increased gains in silver prices due to tariff concerns [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, causing gold prices to rise. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce. The basis was -3.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2799 kilograms to 52950 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher silver prices. COMEX silver futures rose 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce. The basis was -25, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6382 kilograms to 1246569 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the US new government's policies will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are stronger tariff concerns for silver prices, and there is a risk of increased gains. The global situation is turbulent, with the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the shadow Fed is significant, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen again, the situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are tense, inflation has resurfaced, and tariff concerns have an impact [12]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs at the Reserve Bank of Australia, participates in a fireside chat during the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. - Time TBD: The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, and the 2025 BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership Forum are held. - 14:00: UK July three - month ILO employment figures and unemployment rate are released. - 14:30: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart - Narueput holds a briefing on the economy and monetary policy. - 15:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus presents the economic outlook report for Lithuania. - Time TBD: US President Trump visits the UK, possibly lasting until September 18, accompanied by executives from companies such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and BlackRock. - 16:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks in Madrid, Spain. - 17:00: Germany's September ZEW economic sentiment index is released. - 19:00: The Bank of Spain releases a new economic outlook report. - 20:30: US August retail sales, August import and export price indexes, and Canada's August CPI are released. - Time TBD: The two - day FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Fed begins. - 21:15: US August industrial production data is released. - 22:00: US September NAHB housing market index and July business inventory data are released [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: The report shows the price movements of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver futures, SGE gold and silver T + D, London gold and silver spot prices, and the US dollar index [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3.64 basis points to 4.034% [4][5][25]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings continued to decrease but were higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained flat. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase, with renewed tariff concerns [37][39]. 5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 250,048, a decrease of 1,099 (-0.44%) compared to September 14; the short positions were 85,595, an increase of 1,315 (1.56%); the net positions were 164,453, a decrease of 2,414 (-1.45%) [30]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 375,292, a decrease of 10,769 (-2.79%) compared to September 12; the short positions were 279,860, a decrease of 5,297 (-1.86%); the net positions were 95,432, a decrease of 5,472 (-5.42%) [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the overseas market trends from September 8 to 12, 2025, including the performance of stocks, foreign exchange, bonds, and commodities. It also covers overseas central bank dynamics, Trump policy updates, and high - frequency tracking of the overseas economic fundamentals, and reminds of important events in the coming week. Factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and central bank policies have significant impacts on market trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equities**: Overseas equities generally rose this week. US stocks' three major indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising for 5 consecutive days. European and Asian major indices also increased due to factors like the increased probability of 3 interest rate cuts within the year. For example, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rose 1.59%, 0.95%, and 2.03% respectively; the German DAX and London FTSE 100 rose 0.43% and 0.82%; the Nikkei 225 and South Korean Composite Index rose 4.07% and 5.94% [3][12]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar weakened this week. The dollar index fell 0.12%. The euro and yen against the dollar changed by +0.15% and - 0.17% respectively, and the RMB against the dollar rose slightly by 0.06% [12]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y US Treasury yield declined, while the short - end rose. The 2Y US Treasury rose 5bp, and the 10Y US Treasury fell 4bp. The decline was due to factors consolidating the interest rate cut expectation, and the rise was affected by the Middle - East situation and inflation expectations [13]. - **Commodities**: Gold, crude oil, and copper prices all rose. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.26% and 2.81%; WTI crude oil and copper rose 1.02% and 2.54% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The market's expectation of a 9 - month interest rate cut by the Fed reached 100%. The core CPI inflation in the US in August met expectations. The market's expectation of a 25bp cut in September was 93.4% (up from 89.0% a week ago), and the probability of a 50bp cut was 6.6% (down from 11.0% a week ago). The probability of a total of 75bp cuts throughout 2025 was 74% (up from 65% a week ago) [4][30][31]. - The Fed's FOMC meeting in September may see increased internal differences, and the new dot - plot may adjust the interest rate cut path significantly and become more decentralized [30]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade and Tariffs**: The Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on the legality of Trump's global tariff policy in the first week of November. China and the US will hold talks from September 14 - 17 in Spain, discussing issues like US unilateral tariffs and TikTok. China's Ministry of Commerce launched anti - dumping and anti - discrimination investigations on US - imported products. Trump proposed that the EU impose a 100% tariff on Russia's energy buyers (India and China) [33]. - **Fed - related**: Milan may participate in the September FOMC vote. There is a new candidate for the Fed chair, Rick Rieder. The case of Fed governor Cook may have a turn, with evidence to refute the mortgage fraud accusation [33][34]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Economic Outlook - The Polymarket website's bet on a US economic recession in 2025 was 11% (up from 9% a week ago). Bloomberg's consensus forecast for US economic growth in 2025 was revised up to 1.65%, and for the eurozone, it was 1.2% [6][40]. - The New York Fed's Nowcast model slightly lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth forecast to 2.08%, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model raised it to 3.09% [42]. 3.2 Employment - The number of unemployment benefit claimants exceeded expectations, mainly due to the impact in Texas. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, with Texas contributing 57%. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remained at 1.939 million [47]. 3.3 Demand - US retail sales were stable, but airport security checks and railway transportation decreased significantly. The red - book retail sales growth rate was 6.6%. Airport security checks fell to 15.787 million, and railway transportation was 468,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 9.44%. The real - estate market activity picked up, with mortgage rates falling and application indices rising [55]. 3.4 Production - US crude steel production rebounded, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was stable. The crude steel production in the week ending September 5 was 1.795 million short tons, and the refinery's capacity utilization rate was 94.9% [59]. 3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 2.9%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Capesize Freight Index, and Panamax Freight Index rose 7.4%, 11.3%, and 8.3% respectively. Chinese port export container prices generally fell, with some routes rising [61][63]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices fell 0.69% this week. The 1 - year inflation swap rate was 3.335% (up 0.03 percentage points), and the 2 - year inflation swap rate was 2.906% (down 0.02 percentage points) [65]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - US financial pressure declined. The OFR US Financial Stress Index was - 1.136 (down 0.105 from the previous week), and the CCC high - yield bond credit spread was 8.00% (down from 8.06% a week ago) [67]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminder - Multiple overseas central banks, including the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada, will announce interest rate decisions. Attention should also be paid to US retail data and import price indices. Diplomatic events include China - US trade talks from September 14 - 17 and Trump's state visit to the UK from September 17 - 19 [72].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold: After the adjustment of non - farm payroll data, the gold price dropped slightly during the previous day, but due to the continued slowdown of PPI and high expectations of interest rate cuts, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. With the approaching of the September Fed meeting and high expectations of interest rate cuts, paying attention to today's CPI data, the gold price remains strong [4]. - Silver: With the continued slowdown of PPI and high expectations of interest rate cuts, risk appetite recovered, and the silver price fluctuated and closed higher. As the September meeting approaches and interest rate cut expectations are high, paying attention to the US CPI data today, the silver price follows the gold price and remains strong [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US PPI in August declined more than expected, and the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The three major US stock indexes rose and fell differently, and the main European stock indexes also showed mixed results at the close. The US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4.21 basis points to 4.047%. The US dollar index rose 0.08% to 97.85, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1226. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.05% at $3680.4 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US PPI in August declined more than expected, and the silver price fluctuated at a high level. The three major US stock indexes rose and fell differently, and the main European stock indexes also showed mixed results at the close. The US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4.21 basis points to 4.047%. The US dollar index rose 0.08% to 97.85, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1226. COMEX silver futures closed up 0.75% at $41.65 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.92, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants increased by 1536 kilograms to 45951 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants increased by 1831 kilograms to 1252170 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung holds a press conference on his 100th day in office; the 7th China Financial Technology Forum is held; the 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services is held at Shougang Park; the 2025 E - commerce Conference is held; the 17th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee is held in Beijing from September 8 - 12; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr gives a speech [15]. - 20:15: The European Central Bank releases its interest rate decision [15]. - 20:30: US CPI for August and the number of initial jobless claims for the week of September 6 are released [15]. - 20:45: ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference [15]. - 23:10: Bank of England Executive Director Sasha Mills speaks at the European Settlement System Conference [15]. - Next Day 00:00: US household net worth in the second quarter is released [15]. - Next Day 02:00: US government budget for August is released [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the gold price is difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for the gold price is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in the silver price [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On September 10, 2025, the long position volume was 251,787, a decrease of 1,379 or 0.54% compared with September 9; the short position volume was 82,397, an increase of 1,398 or 1.73%; the net position was 169,390, a decrease of 2,777 or 1.61% [31]. - **Silver**: On September 10, 2025, the long position volume was 366,328, an increase of 2,030 or 0.56% compared with September 9; the short position volume was 247,265, a decrease of 448 or 0.18%; the net position was 119,063, an increase of 2,478 or 2.13% [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing and the weakening of domestic risk appetite, the price of gold has increased significantly, and the price of silver has fluctuated at a high level. As the September Fed meeting approaches and the dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, the price of gold is strong, and the price of silver is still supported by the price of gold [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The high expectation of Fed easing led to a significant rise in the price of gold. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes all closed down. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 3.50 basis points to 4.260%. The US dollar index rose 0.66% to 98.32, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1385. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The high expectation of Fed easing caused the price of silver to fluctuate at a high level. Other market indicators were similar to those of gold, and COMEX silver futures closed flat at $41.73 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 447 kilograms to 40191 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8001 kilograms to 1215228 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events need to be focused on, including South Korea's Q2 GDP, Vietnam's August manufacturing PMI, Japan's August service and composite PMI final value, China's August S&P service and composite PMI, etc. Also, speeches by central bank officials such as the European Central Bank President Lagarde and the US St. Louis Fed President Musalem, as well as the Fed's economic beige book and US July JOLTS job openings, are important [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold** - **Likely positive factors**: Global turmoil with lingering risk - aversion sentiment; significant shadow Fed with rising expectation of interest rate cuts; tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation; impact of tariff concerns [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Cessation of interest rate cuts and improved economic expectations; European fiscal expansion falling short of expectations with the US standing out again; deterioration of risk appetite; end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver** - **Likely positive factors**: Similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the price of silver [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Similar to those of gold [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the price of silver, and the price of silver is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.86% to 243,530 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions increased by 4.39% to 70,476, and the net positions increased by 6.47% to 173,054 [31]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.57% to 373,101 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions decreased by 1.59% to 274,760, and the net positions increased by 11.59% to 98,341 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The gold ETF positions continued to increase, and the silver ETF positions increased slightly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, and the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase with renewed tariff concerns [39][41].