大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月19日 1、基本面："小非农"ADP周就业减少，金价止跌回升；美国三大股指全线收跌， 欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌2.52个基 点报4.113%；美元指数涨0.06%报99.59，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1108； COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美联储会议纪要、欧英10月CPI、美国8月贸易帐，10月新屋开 工、营建许可。美股下挫，风险偏好继续降温，但随着小非农数据继续降低，金价 止跌回升。沪金溢价维持至0.8元/克震 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月18日 黄金 1、基本面：三大美股指齐创一个月新低，金价继续回落；美国三大股指全线收跌， 欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.78个基 点报4.137%；美元指数涨0.25%报99.54，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1082； COMEX黄金期货跌1.20%报4045.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国10月工业产出、美国8月耐用品订单、美联储官员讲话日本 首相高市早苗将会见日本央行行长植田和男。美股下挫，风险偏好继续降温，金价 继续回落，但跌幅明显收敛。沪金溢价扩大至-1.5元/克震荡，金价回落溢价收敛， 国内情绪降温。美联储委员放鹰打击市场风险偏好，美国政府开门，等待数据验 证，金价继续高位震荡。 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the "triple whammy" of stock, bond, and currency markets in the U.S. since 2025, driven by rising recession expectations and the spillover effects on global markets through financial, trade, and policy channels [1][2][3] - It highlights the significant differences in resilience among various economies, suggesting that diversified asset allocation and risk hedging are essential strategies for ordinary investors [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Market Movements - On November 13, 2025, the U.S. market experienced a notable "triple whammy" with declines in major indices: Nasdaq down 2.29%, S&P 500 down 1.66%, and Dow Jones down 1.65% [2] - The year 2024 saw increased volatility, with the S&P 500 ending at 5881.63 points, a 0.43% decline for the year, and a significant single-day drop of 2.95% on December 18 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 3.95% at the beginning of 2024 to 4.58% by year-end, indicating a substantial increase in market volatility [2] Group 2: Economic Recession Signals - The expectation of an economic recession is supported by multiple data signals, including a potential 2 percentage point reduction in GDP growth due to a 43-day government shutdown [3] - The IMF has revised its fourth-quarter growth forecast for 2024 to below 1.9%, reflecting concerns over private investment and employment [3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2024, with core PCE inflation expected at 2.6%, indicating a risk of stagflation [3] Group 3: Causes of Market Movements - The "triple whammy" is attributed to a combination of factors: unexpected tightening of Federal Reserve policies, lack of economic data due to the government shutdown, and political instability [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance has led to a "data blindness" situation, complicating accurate assessments of inflation and employment [4] - The shutdown is estimated to have caused an economic loss of $1.5 trillion, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [5] Group 4: Global Market Transmission - U.S. market movements affect global markets through three main channels: financial, trade, and policy [11] - The tightening of U.S. monetary policy has led to capital outflows from emerging markets, with significant impacts on bond and equity markets [11] - The U.S. recession expectations are likely to reduce global export growth, particularly affecting export-oriented economies [13] Group 5: Impact on Developed Economies - The Eurozone is expected to experience a GDP growth rate of only 1.3% in 2025, significantly lower than the U.S. [15] - The correlation between the DAX index and the S&P 500 is high, indicating that U.S. market adjustments directly impact European stock markets [15] - Japan faces challenges with a depreciating yen and rising import costs, complicating its economic recovery [16] Group 6: Impact on Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing widespread currency depreciation, with significant declines in currencies like the Brazilian real and Argentine peso [18] - Capital outflows from emerging markets reached $89 billion in 2024, with Asian markets particularly affected [18] - The rising U.S. debt yields are increasing debt servicing costs for emerging markets, leading to heightened default risks [19] Group 7: China's Market Response - China's exports to the U.S. grew by 5.9% in 2024, but future growth is expected to slow due to U.S. recession fears [20] - The Chinese yuan experienced a 2% depreciation against the dollar in 2024, reflecting the impact of U.S. market movements [21] - China is maintaining a proactive monetary policy, with two reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2024 to support economic growth [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The premiums of Shanghai gold and silver have changed, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, which supported the precious metal prices. However, factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns have improved, weakening the support for precious metal prices [10][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the gold price to decline. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 5.18 basis points to 4.121%, the US dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.0974. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce. The basis was - 3.05, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price reached a record high and then declined significantly. The COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The basis was - 20, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 954 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: Attention should be paid to China's series of economic data, intensive speeches by ECB and Fed officials, and the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP. The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in the precious metal prices, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The factors affecting the gold price include the shift from inflation expectation to economic recession expectation after Trump took office, but the support from factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns has weakened [4][10]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price mainly follows the gold price, and factors such as tariff concerns have a greater impact on the silver price [6][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.66% to 169,485, the short - position volume decreased by 3.86% to 67,373, and the net long position increased by 3.89% to 102,112 [32]. - **Silver**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 2.72% to 398,314, the short - position volume increased by 11.04% to 294,341, and the net long position decreased by 15.26% to 103,973 [33]. 5. Today's Concerns - 08:05: Speech by ECB Governing Council member Vujčić - 09:30: Release of the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities by the National Bureau of Statistics - 10:00: Release of China's industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, urban fixed - asset investment, and national real - estate development investment from January to October, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate in October. A press conference on the national economic operation will be held by the State Council Information Office - 15:05: Speeches by ECB Governing Council members Escriva and Vujčić at the Singapore Fintech Festival - 18:00: Release of the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP - 18:30: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Elderson in Frankfurt - 21:30 (possibly): Release of US retail sales in October - 22:20: Speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter in 2027) - 23:00: Speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane - 23:05: Speech by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid - Next day 03:30: Participation in a fireside chat by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan - Next day 04:20: Participation in a dialogue by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US government is in a shutdown, employment data is weak, and the market is sensitive to negatives, with potential increased volatility. In China, the A - share market has returned to 4000 points, and the bond market may maintain a strong - oscillating pattern. Different commodities have different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3] - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment and waiting for more information. Copper is in a weak oscillation due to economic recession expectations. Aluminum shows a high - level oscillation with both bullish and bearish factors. Other commodities also have their own unique trends affected by supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [4][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US government is shut down. In October, non - farm jobs decreased by 9100, corporate layoffs increased by 175% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.36%. The Fed is cautious about further rate cuts, and the market prices a 69% probability of a December rate cut. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2%, and the US dollar index fell to 99.7 [2] - Domestic: The A - share market rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index back at 4000 points. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 was dominant in style. The bond market was affected by the stock market and regulations, and short - and long - term Treasury yields rose [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. The prices are in a stage of adjustment, and short - term rebounds may have limited space [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract was in a weak oscillation, and LME copper oscillated around $10700 at night. US corporate layoffs in October reached 153,000, a 175% year - on - year increase, and the market has recession expectations for the US economy, which restricts copper prices. Tongling Nonferrous won a copper - gold - molybdenum exploration right for 3.204 billion yuan [6] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 21,665 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. LME aluminum closed at $2843/ton, down 0.09%. The market has both bullish and bearish factors, and aluminum prices are in a high - level oscillation [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2787 yuan/ton, up 0.87%. The supply and demand are in surplus, but cost support may lead to price stabilization, and a rebound awaits news of corporate production cuts [11] 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21,095 yuan/ton, up 1.27 yuan/ton. The cost support is strong, and the price is in a high - level oscillation [12] 3.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated, and LME zinc had a narrow - range oscillation. The export window is open, and the market has both bullish and bearish factors, resulting in an oscillating price [13][14] 3.8 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated weakly. The inventory increased slightly, and in the short term, there is support, but in the long term, the supply pressure may lead to a price decline [16] 3.9 Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract oscillated strongly during the day and then weakened at night. The price is in a high - level oscillation due to the game between bullish and bearish factors [17] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply decreased due to the dry season in the southwest, and the demand showed a mixed situation. The price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern [18][19] 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, and the spot price fell. The early复产 information was not confirmed, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [20][21] 3.12 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated strongly. The US labor market weakness pushed up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, and the price may rise due to the adjustment of the US dollar index [22][23] 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated strongly, and the glass main contract oscillated. The supply contraction may support price stabilization, and the price difference between the two varieties may converge [24][25] 3.14 Steel and Iron Products - Steel futures oscillated weakly, with a decline in production and apparent demand. Iron ore futures fell, with strong supply and weak demand [26][27] 3.15 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures continued to be strong. The third round of coke price increases was implemented, and the supply of coking coal is tight, with an expected strong - oscillating price [28][29] 3.16 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. Argentina's sowing conditions are good, and the short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be strongly oscillating [30][31] 3.17 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract rose. The market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, leading to a rebound in gold prices. The medium - to - long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 0 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, also driven by better - than - expected US ADP and PMI services data, risk appetite improved, resulting in a significant rebound in silver prices. The long - term trend is slightly bearish, and the price will oscillate. The silver premium has expanded to 310 yuan/gram [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.78 basis points to 4.159%, and the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 100.16. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1312 [4]. - **Silver**: The US ADP and PMI services data were better than expected, risk appetite improved, and the price of COMEX silver futures rose 1.20% to $47.86 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, and the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21. The offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352 [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - At 08:30, pay attention to Australia's September goods and services trade balance, and Japan's October final services and composite PMI values. - It is time - undetermined that the 2025 World Internet Conference Wuzhen Summit will open (lasting until November 9), Xiaoma Zhixing and Wenyuan Zhixing plan to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange simultaneously, and iFlytek will hold an offline main forum in Hefei (releasing the latest progress of the Spark large - model). - At 10:05, focus on Vietnam's October import - export and trade balance. - At 13:00, pay attention to India's October final services and composite PMI values. - At 15:00, focus on Germany's September industrial output. - At 16:00, the European Central Bank will hold the "Money Market 2025" conference, with Executive Board member Schnabel delivering a keynote speech and ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaking. - At 16:30, ECB Vice - President Guindos will attend a seminar on "Current Policy Challenges in the Eurozone". - At 17:00, the Norwegian Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. - At 19:45, ECB Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy will speak. - At 20:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. - At 20:30, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss the global economy at a conference in Frankfurt. - At 22:00, ECB Governing Council member and German Central Bank President Nagel will discuss financial stability in Frankfurt. - At 23:30, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will attend a Senate committee hearing. - At 00:00 the next day, New York Fed President Williams will speak, and Fed Governor Barr will participate in a discussion. - At 01:00 the next day, Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak at the New York Economic Club. - At 02:30 the next day, ECB Chief Economist Lane will speak. - At 04:30 the next day, Fed Governor Waller will participate in a conference on central banks and payments. - At 05:30 the next day, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak. - At 06:30 the next day, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 2.66, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 87,816 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 19, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 665,610 kg, an increase of 6,759 kg from the previous day; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 0.95% to 160,330, the short position decreased by 1.30% to 65,685, and the net position decreased by 0.71% to 94,645 [31]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.77% to 330,613, the short position decreased by 3.62% to 246,681, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 83,932 [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Due to heightened concerns about high valuations, the US stock market experienced a "Black Tuesday," leading to a decline in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite decreased, and the rebound strength of both gold and silver prices was weak. In the medium to long term, there was a slight shift to a bearish trend, with limited upside potential. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and the silver premium has expanded to 300 yuan/gram [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. However, the support for gold prices has significantly weakened recently [9]. - Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce. The gold futures price was 915.58, the spot price was 912.55, with a basis of - 3.03, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 87,816 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US stock market's "Black Tuesday" led to a decline in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11,238, the spot price was 11,219, with a basis of - 19, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 665,610 kilograms, with a daily increase of 6,759 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: A series of events and data releases are scheduled, including the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the New Zealand Reserve Bank's press conference on the semi - annual financial stability report, the potential attendance of US President Trump at a hearing for the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling," and various PMI data from China, the US, and Europe, as well as the US October ADP employment data [15]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened due to the improvement of factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US tariff concerns. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. But currently, the support factors have changed [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting it. Positive factors include global turmoil, the existence of shadow Fed's significant interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to interest rate cuts, the Fed's internal divergence, the under - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main gold holders decreased. For example, on November 4, 2025, the long position was 171,616, the short position was 69,501, and the net position was 102,115, showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [31]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main silver holders decreased. On November 4, 2025, the long position was 319,340, the short position was 252,370, and the net position was 66,970, also showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position fluctuated and decreased, while the silver ETF position fluctuated and increased and remained higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts stopped falling with silver being transferred from New York to London [40][41][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market waits for the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, while silver prices slightly recovered. There is still support from easing expectations, but gold prices face pressure due to optimistic trade negotiations. The downward pressure on gold prices persists with the return of optimistic trade expectations. The impact of the Fed's meeting on prices may be short - term [4][6]. - Gold: Despite the end of the decline in gold prices before the Fed's decision, the pressure from trade optimism remains. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at 1 yuan/gram. The Fed's meeting may bring back the support of easing, but the impact time is short [4]. - Silver: Silver prices follow gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has slightly expanded to 420 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remains strong. Silver prices may be supported by the Fed's decision, but the impact is short - term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.01 basis points to 3.976%, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.73, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.28% to $3968.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market waited for the Fed's decision. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes had mixed closing results. COMEX silver futures rose 0.78% to $47.14 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and there are both support from easing expectations and pressure from trade optimism [4]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 3.24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Gold futures warehouse receipts are 87,015 kilograms and remain unchanged, which is bearish [5]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is neutral. The Fed's decision is awaited, and silver prices are slightly recovering. Silver is stronger than gold under the current situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,784 kilograms to 657,427 kilograms, which is bullish [7]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased, which is bullish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 08:30, Australia's Q3 CPI; throughout the day, the Hong Kong stock market is closed; time to be determined, US President Trump visits South Korea and attends the APEC leaders' summit; at 12:05, New Zealand's central bank governor Hawkesby talks about central bank independence; at 20:30 (possibly), the US September merchandise trade balance; at 21:45, the Bank of Canada announces the interest rate decision; at 22:00, the US September pending home sales index; after the European stock market closes, Deutsche Bank releases its earnings report; at 02:00 the next day, the Fed releases the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement; at 02:30 the next day, Fed Chairman Powell holds a regular press conference [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic for gold is that after Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality continues, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include both bullish factors such as global turmoil, increased expectation of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and bearish factors such as the end of interest rate cuts and the improvement of economic expectations [14][15]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.25% to 169,983, the short position decreased by 2.02% to 65,686, and the net position increased by 1.73% to 104,297 on October 28 compared to October 27. The SPDR gold ETF position continues to decrease [30][34]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7.41% to 322,389, the short position decreased by 0.46% to 251,213, and the net position decreased by 25.71% to 71,176 on October 28 compared to October 27. The silver ETF position continues to decrease but is higher than the same period in the past two years. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts stop falling and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [31][37][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global trade tensions have eased, leading to a continued decline in gold and silver prices. The optimism about trade has returned, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices, and silver prices have followed the decline of gold prices. The premiums of Shanghai gold and silver have expanded slightly, and the domestic sentiment remains relatively strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. However, tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The three major US stock indexes rose across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed slightly higher. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 3.46 basis points to 3.976%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 98.82. The offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1091. COMEX gold futures fell 3.40% to $3997.00 per ounce. The basis was - 1.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 87,015 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures fell 3.61% to $46.83 per ounce. The basis was - 18, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 17,328 kilograms day - on - day to 647,643 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: Positive factors include the long - term upward trend on the disk and the main net long position. Negative factors include unchanged gold futures warehouse receipts. The expected impact of the day's events: Trump extended the US - Mexico trade negotiation period, and the US reached trade agreements with multiple Southeast Asian countries, causing gold prices to fall again. The trade optimism has returned, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - **Silver**: Positive factors include the decrease in Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts, the long - term upward trend on the disk, and the increase in the main net long position. Negative factors are not obvious. The silver price followed the gold price decline due to trade factors, and the domestic sentiment remained relatively strong [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:00: South Korea's preliminary GDP for the third quarter - Time TBD: The 2025 World Digital City Conference in Shenzhen (lasting until October 31), the 2025 Shenzhen International All - Touch and Display Exhibition, the Guangdong International Robot and Intelligent Equipment Development Conference, and the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference - 16:30: German Economic and Energy Minister Robert Habeck's speech and participation in the public discussion of the Foreign Trade Day event - 17:00: The European Central Bank releases CPI expectations and the loan survey report - 17:30: ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta's speech - 21:00: US FHFA Housing Price Index for August, S&P/CS 20 - City Composite Home Price Index for August - 22:00: US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the new US government's policy expectations and actual verification will continue, making gold prices still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [12]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 45 contracts (- 0.03%), the short position increased by 864 contracts (1.31%), and the net long position decreased by 909 contracts (- 0.88%) [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 5,409 contracts (- 1.53%), the short position decreased by 13,453 contracts (- 5.06%), and the net long position increased by 8,044 contracts (9.16%) [5][32]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR gold ETF position continued to decrease, and the silver ETF position also decreased but was higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased again, COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease significantly and were at the lowest level in nearly six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease, with New York silver transferred to London [38][39][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the gold price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -2 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has significantly cooled. Despite short - term capital pressure making the gold price weak, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to trade concerns, government shutdowns, and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - Silver: Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin may lead to an escalation of Russian energy sanctions, causing the silver price to continue falling. The premium of Shanghai silver has rapidly and significantly expanded to 300 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. With cooling trade concerns, the silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $4116.60 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.953%. The US dollar index fell 0.06% to 98.91, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1257. The basis of gold was - 2.31, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 87015 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce. The basis of silver was - 13, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 57674 kilograms to 691688 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, but it is weak in the short term due to capital pressure. Today, pay attention to the closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, as well as speeches by members of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [4]. - Silver: The silver price, which follows the gold price, still has support but faces short - term correction pressure [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: Closing of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Photovoltaic Industry High - Quality Development and Technology Standards Forum; South Korea's central bank to announce interest - rate decision. - 15:30: Swiss National Bank to release the meeting minutes of the September interest - rate decision. - 17:15: Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Woods, to speak on economic growth in northern England. - 19:00: Central Bank of Ukraine to announce interest - rate decision. - 20:00: Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, to speak. - 21:00: Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Dhingra, to speak. - 22:00: Fed Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision, Bowman, to testify on the supervision of financial regulatory agencies at a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee, and possibly release the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in September. - 22:25: Fed Governor Barr to speak on "community investment" at a tax conference [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the long positions of the main players are decreasing [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the long positions of the main players are increasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 6.81% to 175,296, the short positions decreased by 8.20% to 68,493, and the net position decreased by 5.90% to 106,803 [28]. - Silver: As of October 22, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.56% to 362,840, the short positions decreased by 9.41% to 270,707, and the net position increased by 18.99% to 92,133 [31].