1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the deadlock in the cease - fire negotiations between the US and Iran and Trump's statement of delaying the strike on Iranian energy facilities for ten days, the prices of gold and silver have fallen. However, due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran peace talks and the easing of emotions, the prices of gold and silver will fluctuate. The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, oil prices are high, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, causing gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro - level [4][5][9][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures fell 3.85% to $4376.90 per ounce. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The US bond yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 8.34 basis points to 4.414%. The US dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.93, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 6.9206 [4] - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures fell 6.22% to $68.12 per ounce. Other market conditions are similar to those of gold [5] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.48, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts is 1067463 kilograms, unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Silver**: The basis is - 13, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts is 370299 kilograms, a decrease of 5795 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing, which is bullish [5] 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:00, Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson will talk about the US economy; 07:10, Fed Governor Barr will speak; Time TBD, the 2026 Global Developers Pioneer Conference will open, and the Brain - Computer Interface Innovation and Development Forum of the Zhongguancun Forum will be held; 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February; 15:00, UK's retail sales in February; 22:00, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in March; 23:00, Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economic outlook; 23:30, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 FOMC voter) will talk about macro - economy and monetary policy, and San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter) will give an opening speech at a monetary policy seminar; At 00:00 the next day, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel will speak; On Sunday, many European countries will start daylight saving time, and the market trading time will be advanced by one hour [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, oil prices are high, and the expectation of interest rate hikes is rising, causing gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro - level. The factors that are bullish for gold include global turmoil, tense Middle - East situation, the influence of the shadow Fed, the upcoming appointment of a new Fed chairman, Trump's tariff disputes, etc. The bearish factors include high oil prices leading to capital transfer to crude oil and related commodities, the rising expectation of Fed interest rate hikes, the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the ineffectiveness of reciprocal tariffs [9] - **Silver**: The logic is similar to that of gold. In addition, the photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and the hot supply - shortage game are also bullish factors. The bearish factors also include the deterioration of risk appetite [12][14] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.32% to 147,144, the short position increased by 5.47% to 44,494, and the net position decreased by 4.00% to 102,650. The SPDR gold ETF position remained unchanged [38][43] - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.10% to 240,033, the short position increased by 0.73% to 214,706, and the net position decreased by 4.96% to 25,327. The silver ETF position decreased slightly [41][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In March, the copper market is at a critical period of supply - demand re - balance. The global inventory is at a high level on the supply side, and there is still pressure in the first ten days. On the demand side, the resumption of work improves after the Lantern Festival, but high copper prices inhibit restocking, and there is uncertainty in inventory depletion. The mine end is tight, and the macro - level is mixed. Copper prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and rise slowly. If the crude oil price continues to rise, it will have a positive impact on copper prices [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 5, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,640 yuan/ton and closed at 101,080 yuan/ton, a - 0.57% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The night - session main contract opened at 100,440 yuan/ton and closed at 100,980 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase from the afternoon closing of the previous day [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The spot discount of Shanghai copper is expected to continue the steady repair trend. The contango C spread continues to converge slightly, and the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse decreases. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously locked - price imported goods continue to arrive, and the social inventory is at a high level, so the market circulation of goods is abundant. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' resumption of work and production continues to advance, and the decline in Shanghai copper futures prices increases the downstream's willingness to buy at low prices, and the order activity increases, supporting the spot discount. Overall, the overall trading activity of Shanghai copper spot is expected to remain stable [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Geopolitical Aspect - The Middle East conflict situation continues to escalate. Iran is prepared to deal with a US ground invasion, refuses to restart negotiations with the US, and refutes the claim of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US president's statement about participating in determining Iran's next supreme leader is strongly refuted by Iran. Israel launches the 13th round of air strikes on Tehran, and the US is adding resources to support the war for "at least 100 days or even until September" [3] 3.2.2 Tariff Aspect - 24 US states sue to block the new tariff measures announced by the Trump administration. The US Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's previous tariff - imposing practice was illegal, but Trump invoked the 122nd clause of the 1974 Trade Act to impose a 15% tariff on most global products [3] 3.2.3 Mine End Aspect - MMG Ltd. is seeking merger and acquisition opportunities to expand its copper mine asset portfolio, focusing on projects in Latin America and Africa and may complete acquisitions in the short term. Las Bambas copper mine has a contingency plan for Peru's next - month election and will invest 800 - 850 million US dollars in capital expenditure this year for facility upgrades [4] 3.2.4 Smelting and Import Aspect - LME fines PGS 250,000 pounds (about 334,175 US dollars) for violating warehouse rules. PGS stored copper in an open - air area outside the facility, which violates LME's core standards. This incident may affect its warehouse registration qualification and market reputation [4] 3.3 Consumption and Inventory 3.3.1 Consumption - High copper prices previously suppressed demand. Enterprises mainly made batch - by - batch rigid - demand purchases. In different fields, electricity orders are strongly supported, while construction and communication orders are weak, showing a differentiated consumption pattern. After the Lantern Festival, with the full resumption of work in terminal industries, the demand in electricity and new energy fields will improve, but the recovery in traditional fields such as construction is slow. It will take time for overall consumption to return to the pre - holiday level, and the inventory depletion progress in mid - to - late March will be a key observation indicator [5] 3.3.2 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 282,200 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,157 tons to 303,632 tons. On March 5, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 577,200 tons, a change of 17,200 tons from the previous week [5] 3.4 Strategy 3.4.1 Spot Enterprises - In early March, maintain a cautious procurement strategy, use the deep - discount structure to buy on - demand at low prices, and avoid high - position centralized procurement [6] 3.4.2 Mid - stream Processing Enterprises - First, digest pre - holiday raw material and finished - product inventories, and increase procurement efforts after confirming inventory depletion signals in mid - to - late March [6] 3.4.3 Holders - Reduce inventory exposure at high prices to avoid the risk of spot discount expansion under high - inventory pressure [6] 3.4.4 Futures Hedging Operations - Conduct corresponding buying and selling hedging operations for Shanghai copper in the range of 100,000 - 104,600 yuan/ton. Adjust the hedging ratio according to the proximity to the upper and lower limits of the range [6]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [6] 3. Core View - The futures contracts of US soybeans in the external market were strong first and then weak during the holiday, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range, and the main contract was close to 1150 cents. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly, mainly following the trend of crude oil, showing a differentiated performance. The war has exceeded market expectations, and the market is gradually pricing in a longer Strait blockade, which has led to excellent performance in energy and chemical products. Although there is no direct relationship with agricultural products, price transmission can occur through many channels. The overall impact of crude oil on CPI is significant, and the market is gradually moving towards inflation expectations. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable and may be more inclined to inflation expectations. Therefore, although the fundamentals are weak, soybean meal is treated with cautious optimism, and future attention should be paid to the duration of the Strait blockade [6] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: The table shows the market conditions of soybean meal contracts 2603, 2605, and 2607, including pre - settlement price, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 2603 was 3012, with a change of 20 and a change rate of 0.67% [6] - **Operation suggestions**: Cautiously bullish on soybean meal, and pay attention to the duration of the Strait blockade [6] 4.2 Industry News - **USDA Annual Outlook Forum**: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, with exports increasing by 125 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels and crushing increasing by 85 million bushels to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending inventory will remain basically flat at 355 million bushels. The Chief Economist of the US Department of Agriculture warned that production costs are expected to remain high, which will continue to squeeze the profit margin of planting [9] - **BAGE**: As of the week of February 18, rainfall occurred in the central and northern agricultural areas of Argentina. Although the distribution was uneven and the intensity varied, it significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of soybean crops are rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year. The proportion of poorly rated soybeans is 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [10] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core View of the Report - In March, the copper market is at a critical period of supply - demand re - balance. The supply side has high global inventories, with pressure in the first half of the month. The demand side improves after the Lantern Festival, but high copper prices inhibit restocking, and inventory depletion is uncertain. The mine end is tight, and the macro - level is mixed. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and rise slowly. Geopolitical factors have led to more attention on energy - chemical products, and the market is trading the expectation of an economic recession. However, if the crude oil price continues to rise, it is relatively favorable for copper prices [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - On March 3, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 103,320 yuan/ton and closed at 102,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69% from the previous trading day's closing. In the night session, it opened at 100,530 yuan/ton and closed at 101,330 yuan/ton, a 1.05% decrease from the afternoon closing [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The spot discount of copper stabilized. Mainstream flat - copper was reported at a discount of 260 - 120 yuan/ton, and good copper at a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton. The Contango spread between months narrowed to 360 - 250 yuan/ton, and the willingness to deliver to the warehouse weakened. Supply arrivals continued, and high inventories pressured the market. Demand was slowly recovering, and procurement and sales sentiment was stable. It is expected that the spot discount will continue to repair slightly, but the upside is limited [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to make major adjustments to position limit rules to comply with new UK financial regulatory instructions. From July 6, the power to set and enforce position limits for commodity derivatives will be transferred from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to the LME. The new system will enhance the LME's insight into market risks and improve regulatory efficiency [3] 3.2.2 Mine End - A bridge collapse in Zambia due to floods cut off the main copper export corridor in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, disrupting copper shipments from the world's second - largest copper - producing country. Although there are other border ports, the main port of Kasumbalesa is affected, and trucks are queued for dozens of miles [4] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals will acquire Arizona Sonoran Copper Company through an all - stock transaction. After the acquisition, Hudbay will obtain full ownership of the Cactus copper mine project and form synergy with its existing Copper World project. The combined projects are expected to create the second - largest copper cathode production area in the US. The Copper World project is expected to produce 92,000 tons of copper per year by 2030, and the Cactus project will produce an additional 103,000 tons per year after completion. The US - Iran conflict has a limited impact on China's copper market, mainly in the recycled copper market, and the overall impact on supply and demand is relatively small [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - High copper prices previously suppressed demand, and enterprises' procurement sentiment was weak, mainly for batch - by - batch just - in - time procurement. Orders in the power sector were relatively strong, while those in the construction and communication sectors were weak. After the Spring Festival, social inventories accumulated more than expected, suppressing spot prices. In March, with the full resumption of work in terminal industries after the Lantern Festival, demand in the power and new energy sectors is expected to improve, but the recovery of traditional sectors such as construction is slow. The real supply - demand contradiction is expected to emerge in mid - to - late March, and inventory depletion will be a key observation indicator [6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 4,624 tons to 300,505 tons. On March 3, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 560,000 tons, a change of 28,300 tons from the previous week [6] 3.3 Strategy 3.3.1 Spot Enterprises - In early March, maintain a cautious procurement strategy. Use the deep - discount structure to make on - demand purchases at low prices and avoid high - level concentrated stockpiling [7] 3.3.2 Mid - stream Processing Enterprises - Prioritize digesting pre - festival raw material and finished - product inventories. Increase procurement efforts after confirming inventory depletion signals in mid - to - late March [7] 3.3.3 Holders of Goods - Reduce inventory exposure at high prices to avoid the risk of an expanding spot discount under high - inventory pressure [7] 3.3.4 Futures Hedging - For Shanghai copper, conduct corresponding buy and sell hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range of 100,000 - 104,600 yuan/ton. Adjust the hedging ratio according to the proximity to the upper or lower limit of the range [7]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF currency pair remains a focal point in the forex market due to its dual characteristics of being a safe-haven asset and a carry trade, influenced by the interplay between the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the Swiss National Bank's interventions [1][3]. Fundamental Analysis - The interest rate differential is the primary driver of the USD/CHF exchange rate, with the Fed's interest rate decisions directly impacting the USD/CHF dynamics [1]. - A resilient US economy may delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the USD and pushing USD/CHF higher; conversely, weak US data could lead to earlier rate cuts, putting pressure on the USD and causing the exchange rate to decline [1]. - The Swiss National Bank's policy stance is crucial, as excessive appreciation of the CHF could harm Swiss exports and inflation, prompting the SNB to intervene and potentially support the USD/CHF [1]. Risk Sentiment - Global geopolitical conflicts, financial market volatility, and recession expectations can quickly trigger a rebalancing of funds towards safe-haven assets [2]. - When risk appetite improves, the CHF tends to weaken against the USD, while heightened risk aversion leads to increased demand for the CHF, which can suppress the USD/CHF exchange rate [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF pair typically exhibits a range-bound and oscillatory trading pattern, with clear trends being relatively rare [2]. - Key support and resistance levels are critical for mid-term trading strategies, with a focus on high-selling and low-buying approaches before any breakout occurs [2]. - Short-term indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD can assist in identifying market strength and potential reversal signals, enhancing the probability of successful trades [2]. Summary - The USD/CHF exchange rate is influenced by the combined effects of Fed policies, SNB interventions, and global risk sentiment [3]. - Monitoring US inflation and employment data is essential for understanding Fed policy direction, alongside observing SNB statements and global financial risks [3]. - The USD/CHF is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern until a significant shift in interest rate expectations or risk sentiment occurs, which could lead to a breakout and a new trend [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, Trump denied dismissing Powell and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, causing metal prices to stop rising and gold prices to fluctuate at a high level. Geopolitical tensions and a cooling risk appetite also contributed to the price volatility. The upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited due to factors like recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [4]. - For silver, the Trump administration's decision on tariffs led to silver prices stopping their rise and experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. The downward pressure on silver prices increased as domestic sentiment cooled rapidly, and there were geopolitical concerns along with a cooling risk appetite [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.33% to $4,620.50 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4.53 basis points to 4.171%, the US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.35, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9631. The gold futures basis was - 2.98, indicating the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100,152 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce. The silver futures basis was - 15, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,703 kilograms to 638,399 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of Fed members, the US January NAHB housing market index, the opening of the 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference, Germany's December CPI final value, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva's speech, the US December industrial production, the welcome speech by Boston Fed President Collins at the 2026 New England Economic Forum, Fed Governor Bowman's talk on economic prospects and monetary policy, and the keynote speech by Fed Vice - Chair Philip Jefferson at the US Economic Research Institute meeting [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - Gold: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, along with liquidity concerns, have a limited upward impact on gold prices. There are also factors such as global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns that are positive for gold prices, while factors like potential Trump new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Positive factors include global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, tariff support for non - ferrous metals, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include significant Fed internal differences, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, and Bloomberg commodity index adjustments [12][13]. 3.4. Position Data - Gold: The net long position of the main players increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.83% to 186,651 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions decreased by 2.04% to 47,740, and the net position decreased by 1.76% to 138,911. The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly [30][34][38]. - Silver: The net long position of the main players decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.46% to 369,580 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions increased by 3.30% to 305,332, and the net position decreased by 6.43% to 64,248. The silver ETF position decreased slightly, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [32][36][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices have continued to reach new highs. Although the bet on a January interest rate cut has almost disappeared, due to geopolitical tensions and Fed turmoil, gold prices remain strong. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -4 yuan/gram [4]. - Core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices have continued to rise. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 2,600 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has heated up again. Due to geopolitical concerns and high - sentiment, silver prices also remain strong [5]. - After Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Recently, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts and optimistic expectations for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market. Coupled with liquidity concerns, there is still upward momentum for gold prices, but it is limited [9]. - After Trump's inauguration, silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to larger increases [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices continued to reach new highs. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX gold futures fell 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: China's December imports and exports and trade balance, and possibly the incremental social financing scale, new RMB loans from January to December, and money supply such as December M2; the US Supreme Court may make a ruling on the Trump tariff case [14]. - 16:20: Speech by European Central Bank Deputy President de Guindos [14]. - 17:15: Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor [14]. - 21:30: US November PPI [14]. - 22:50: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Paulson on the economic outlook [14]. - 23:00: US December existing - home sales annualized total, and speech by Fed Governor Milan on supervision and monetary policy [14]. - 23:30: Speech by Bank of England Deputy President Dave Ramsden [14]. - Next day 01:00: Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and participation in a discussion by Atlanta Fed President Bostic [14]. - Next day 03:00: Release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on economic conditions, and opening remarks by New York Fed President Williams [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Positioning Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 180,315, an increase of 1.73% from the previous day; the short position volume is 48,004, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous day; the net position is 132,311, an increase of 3.28% from the previous day [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 359,134, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the short position volume is 293,066, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous day; the net position is 66,068, an increase of 3.90% from the previous day [5][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the Chicago Exchange raised margins, causing the gold price to fall in the morning. The silver price increase pushed up the gold price, but the gold price followed the silver price down. The overseas Christmas holiday may still lead to abnormal price surges, and the low gold - silver ratio provides support for the gold price. The Shanghai gold premium has expanded to - 5 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, during the Christmas holiday, the domestic silver price continued to rise significantly. The news of the Chicago Exchange raising margins led to a sharp drop in the silver price in the morning. Historically, such margin hikes have caused significant silver price drops. The overseas silver price has started to fall after breaking through the 80 - dollar mark, while the Shanghai silver price may still冲击 the 20,000 - mark, with large fluctuations expected today, so cautious operation is advised. The Shanghai silver premium has continued to expand to 1,800 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The Chicago Exchange raised margins, the U.S. three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, most U.S. bond yields declined (10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 0.78 basis points to 4.128%), the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.03, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 7.0063 at night, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold in macro - environment, COMEX silver futures rose 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's focus includes the summary of Japan's monetary policy opinions, the U.S. November existing - home sales, China's December regular press conference of CCPIT, the U.S. November pending home sales index, and the U.S. December Dallas Fed business activity index [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.17 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures warrants is 93,711 kg, unchanged (bearish) [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is + 181 (spot at a premium to futures, neutral); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 852,417 kg, a decrease of 29,532 kg (bullish) [5]. 3.4. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased [5]. 3.5. Logic Analysis - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. Recent Fed rate - cuts and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and with liquidity concerns, the upward momentum of the gold price exists but is limited [9]. - **Silver**: It mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the price increase may expand [12]. 3.6. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Gold** - **Bullish**: The world is in turmoil with existing risk - aversion sentiment; there is still an expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns remain; the low gold - silver ratio provides support [4]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the basis shows the spot at a discount to futures; the inventory remains unchanged [4]. - **Silver** - **Bullish**: Global turmoil with risk - aversion sentiment; the expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns; support from non - ferrous metal tariffs; support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors; low spot inventory and active supply - shortage game [13]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the Fed's internal division may lead to a pause in rate - cuts; the European fiscal expansion is less than expected; the risk preference deteriorates again; the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the limited possibility of short - squeezing due to no obvious supply shortage [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - During the Christmas holiday, gold prices were boosted by silver prices. Gold futures had a price of 1008.76, and the spot price was 1002.92, with a basis of -5.84, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 93711 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased. With overseas stock markets closed in many places, attention should be paid to China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in November and Japan's unemployment rate in November. The gold - silver ratio was at a low level, providing support for gold prices [4]. - During the Christmas holiday, Shanghai silver prices rose significantly again, while the London market did not follow up after the holiday. The silver futures price was 17397, and the spot price was 17433, with a basis of +6, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 29532 kilograms to 852417 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased. Domestic silver prices rose independently and significantly during the Christmas holiday, and the Shanghai silver premium continued to expand. With overseas Christmas holidays, abnormal price increases were still possible, and silver prices remained strong under the support of funds, but there was a risk of high premiums in silver funds [5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recently, the Fed's interest rate cuts and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks had a combined impact, and with concerns about liquidity, there was still upward momentum for gold prices, but it was limited [9]. - Silver prices mainly followed gold prices. The tariff concern had a stronger impact on silver prices, and there was a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices. There were both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil and inflation concerns on the positive side, and the Fed's internal divergence and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the negative side [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - The report provides the previous day's closing, highest, lowest, price changes, and price change percentages of various precious metal products, including Shanghai gold 2602, Shanghai silver 2602, COMEX gold 2602, etc. For example, Shanghai gold 2602 closed at 1008.76, with a high of 1014.28, a low of 1003.12, a price change of -3.90, and a price change percentage of -0.39% [16]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Attention should be paid to Japan's unemployment rate, Tokyo CPI, industrial output, and retail sales in November; China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November; and a news conference by the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 07:30, Japan's November unemployment rate, job - seeking ratio, and December Tokyo CPI; at 07:50, Japan's November industrial output preliminary value and retail sales; the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada are closed all day; the first Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area Low - altitude Economy High - quality Development Conference is held at an undetermined time; at 10:30, the National Development and Reform Commission holds a news conference to introduce the work related to the national venture capital guidance fund; on Saturday at 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November are announced [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The unchanged warehouse receipts are also bearish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with a decrease in long positions is also bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The decrease in warehouse receipts is bullish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with an increase in long positions is bullish [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 189,259, a decrease of 3,766 or 1.95% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 55,546, a decrease of 501 or 0.89%; the net positions were 133,713, a decrease of 3,265 or 2.38% [30]. - **Shanghai Silver**: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 393,810, a decrease of 8,438 or 2.10% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 306,880, a decrease of 4,494 or 1.44%; the net positions were 86,930, a decrease of 3,944 or 4.34% [32]. - **SPDR Gold ETF**: The ETF holdings turned to an increase [34]. - **Silver ETF**: The ETF holdings decreased slightly [36]. - **Shanghai Gold Warehouse Receipts**: There was a slight increase [38]. - **COMEX Gold Warehouse Receipts**: There was a slight increase and remained at a high level [39]. - **Shanghai Silver Warehouse Receipts**: Continued to decrease slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years [41]. - **COMEX Silver Warehouse Receipts**: Continued to decrease [41].