新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-03-04 地缘因素引发经济衰退担忧 铜价承压回落 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-03-03，沪铜主力合约开于 103320元/吨，收于 102100元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.69%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 100,530元/吨，收于 101,330 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降1.05%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨早盘沪铜2603合约V型震荡，收于102430元/吨。现货贴水企稳，主流平水铜报贴水260-120元/吨， 好铜报贴水100-80元/吨。第二时段非注册铜小幅走弱，但平水铜报价坚挺，成交以贴水250-200元/吨为主。隔月 Contango月差收窄至360-250元/吨，交仓意愿减弱。供应端到货持续，库存高位施压；需求缓慢复苏，采销情绪平 稳。预计今日现货贴水延续小幅修复，但上行空间有限。 重要资讯汇总： 冶炼及进口方面，外电3月2日消息，加拿大矿业公司哈德贝矿业（Hudbay Minerals）于周一宣布，将以全股票交 易方式收购亚利桑那索诺兰铜业（Arizona Sonoran Copper Company）。此次收购将使Hudbay ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF currency pair remains a focal point in the forex market due to its dual characteristics of being a safe-haven asset and a carry trade, influenced by the interplay between the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the Swiss National Bank's interventions [1][3]. Fundamental Analysis - The interest rate differential is the primary driver of the USD/CHF exchange rate, with the Fed's interest rate decisions directly impacting the USD/CHF dynamics [1]. - A resilient US economy may delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the USD and pushing USD/CHF higher; conversely, weak US data could lead to earlier rate cuts, putting pressure on the USD and causing the exchange rate to decline [1]. - The Swiss National Bank's policy stance is crucial, as excessive appreciation of the CHF could harm Swiss exports and inflation, prompting the SNB to intervene and potentially support the USD/CHF [1]. Risk Sentiment - Global geopolitical conflicts, financial market volatility, and recession expectations can quickly trigger a rebalancing of funds towards safe-haven assets [2]. - When risk appetite improves, the CHF tends to weaken against the USD, while heightened risk aversion leads to increased demand for the CHF, which can suppress the USD/CHF exchange rate [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF pair typically exhibits a range-bound and oscillatory trading pattern, with clear trends being relatively rare [2]. - Key support and resistance levels are critical for mid-term trading strategies, with a focus on high-selling and low-buying approaches before any breakout occurs [2]. - Short-term indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD can assist in identifying market strength and potential reversal signals, enhancing the probability of successful trades [2]. Summary - The USD/CHF exchange rate is influenced by the combined effects of Fed policies, SNB interventions, and global risk sentiment [3]. - Monitoring US inflation and employment data is essential for understanding Fed policy direction, alongside observing SNB statements and global financial risks [3]. - The USD/CHF is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern until a significant shift in interest rate expectations or risk sentiment occurs, which could lead to a breakout and a new trend [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, Trump denied dismissing Powell and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, causing metal prices to stop rising and gold prices to fluctuate at a high level. Geopolitical tensions and a cooling risk appetite also contributed to the price volatility. The upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited due to factors like recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [4]. - For silver, the Trump administration's decision on tariffs led to silver prices stopping their rise and experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. The downward pressure on silver prices increased as domestic sentiment cooled rapidly, and there were geopolitical concerns along with a cooling risk appetite [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.33% to $4,620.50 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4.53 basis points to 4.171%, the US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.35, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9631. The gold futures basis was - 2.98, indicating the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 100,152 kilograms [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.90% to $92.21 per ounce. The silver futures basis was - 15, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,703 kilograms to 638,399 kilograms [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of Fed members, the US January NAHB housing market index, the opening of the 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference, Germany's December CPI final value, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva's speech, the US December industrial production, the welcome speech by Boston Fed President Collins at the 2026 New England Economic Forum, Fed Governor Bowman's talk on economic prospects and monetary policy, and the keynote speech by Fed Vice - Chair Philip Jefferson at the US Economic Research Institute meeting [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - Gold: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, along with liquidity concerns, have a limited upward impact on gold prices. There are also factors such as global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns that are positive for gold prices, while factors like potential Trump new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant Bank of Japan interest rate hikes, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Positive factors include global turmoil, South American geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, tariff support for non - ferrous metals, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include significant Fed internal differences, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, optimistic Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, and Bloomberg commodity index adjustments [12][13]. 3.4. Position Data - Gold: The net long position of the main players increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.83% to 186,651 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions decreased by 2.04% to 47,740, and the net position decreased by 1.76% to 138,911. The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly [30][34][38]. - Silver: The net long position of the main players decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.46% to 369,580 on January 15 compared to January 14, the short positions increased by 3.30% to 305,332, and the net position decreased by 6.43% to 64,248. The silver ETF position decreased slightly, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [32][36][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices have continued to reach new highs. Although the bet on a January interest rate cut has almost disappeared, due to geopolitical tensions and Fed turmoil, gold prices remain strong. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -4 yuan/gram [4]. - Core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices have continued to rise. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 2,600 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has heated up again. Due to geopolitical concerns and high - sentiment, silver prices also remain strong [5]. - After Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Recently, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts and optimistic expectations for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market. Coupled with liquidity concerns, there is still upward momentum for gold prices, but it is limited [9]. - After Trump's inauguration, silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to larger increases [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices continued to reach new highs. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX gold futures fell 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: China's December imports and exports and trade balance, and possibly the incremental social financing scale, new RMB loans from January to December, and money supply such as December M2; the US Supreme Court may make a ruling on the Trump tariff case [14]. - 16:20: Speech by European Central Bank Deputy President de Guindos [14]. - 17:15: Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor [14]. - 21:30: US November PPI [14]. - 22:50: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Paulson on the economic outlook [14]. - 23:00: US December existing - home sales annualized total, and speech by Fed Governor Milan on supervision and monetary policy [14]. - 23:30: Speech by Bank of England Deputy President Dave Ramsden [14]. - Next day 01:00: Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and participation in a discussion by Atlanta Fed President Bostic [14]. - Next day 03:00: Release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on economic conditions, and opening remarks by New York Fed President Williams [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Positioning Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 180,315, an increase of 1.73% from the previous day; the short position volume is 48,004, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous day; the net position is 132,311, an increase of 3.28% from the previous day [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 359,134, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the short position volume is 293,066, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous day; the net position is 66,068, an increase of 3.90% from the previous day [5][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the Chicago Exchange raised margins, causing the gold price to fall in the morning. The silver price increase pushed up the gold price, but the gold price followed the silver price down. The overseas Christmas holiday may still lead to abnormal price surges, and the low gold - silver ratio provides support for the gold price. The Shanghai gold premium has expanded to - 5 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, during the Christmas holiday, the domestic silver price continued to rise significantly. The news of the Chicago Exchange raising margins led to a sharp drop in the silver price in the morning. Historically, such margin hikes have caused significant silver price drops. The overseas silver price has started to fall after breaking through the 80 - dollar mark, while the Shanghai silver price may still冲击 the 20,000 - mark, with large fluctuations expected today, so cautious operation is advised. The Shanghai silver premium has continued to expand to 1,800 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The Chicago Exchange raised margins, the U.S. three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, most U.S. bond yields declined (10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 0.78 basis points to 4.128%), the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.03, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed at 7.0063 at night, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold in macro - environment, COMEX silver futures rose 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today's focus includes the summary of Japan's monetary policy opinions, the U.S. November existing - home sales, China's December regular press conference of CCPIT, the U.S. November pending home sales index, and the U.S. December Dallas Fed business activity index [4][14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.17 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures warrants is 93,711 kg, unchanged (bearish) [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is + 181 (spot at a premium to futures, neutral); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 852,417 kg, a decrease of 29,532 kg (bullish) [5]. 3.4. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net long position increased [5]. 3.5. Logic Analysis - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. Recent Fed rate - cuts and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and with liquidity concerns, the upward momentum of the gold price exists but is limited [9]. - **Silver**: It mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the price increase may expand [12]. 3.6. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Gold** - **Bullish**: The world is in turmoil with existing risk - aversion sentiment; there is still an expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns remain; the low gold - silver ratio provides support [4]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the basis shows the spot at a discount to futures; the inventory remains unchanged [4]. - **Silver** - **Bullish**: Global turmoil with risk - aversion sentiment; the expectation of Fed rate - cuts; inflation concerns; support from non - ferrous metal tariffs; support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors; low spot inventory and active supply - shortage game [13]. - **Bearish**: The Chicago Exchange raised margins; the Fed's internal division may lead to a pause in rate - cuts; the European fiscal expansion is less than expected; the risk preference deteriorates again; the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the limited possibility of short - squeezing due to no obvious supply shortage [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - During the Christmas holiday, gold prices were boosted by silver prices. Gold futures had a price of 1008.76, and the spot price was 1002.92, with a basis of -5.84, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 93711 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased. With overseas stock markets closed in many places, attention should be paid to China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in November and Japan's unemployment rate in November. The gold - silver ratio was at a low level, providing support for gold prices [4]. - During the Christmas holiday, Shanghai silver prices rose significantly again, while the London market did not follow up after the holiday. The silver futures price was 17397, and the spot price was 17433, with a basis of +6, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 29532 kilograms to 852417 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased. Domestic silver prices rose independently and significantly during the Christmas holiday, and the Shanghai silver premium continued to expand. With overseas Christmas holidays, abnormal price increases were still possible, and silver prices remained strong under the support of funds, but there was a risk of high premiums in silver funds [5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recently, the Fed's interest rate cuts and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks had a combined impact, and with concerns about liquidity, there was still upward momentum for gold prices, but it was limited [9]. - Silver prices mainly followed gold prices. The tariff concern had a stronger impact on silver prices, and there was a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices. There were both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil and inflation concerns on the positive side, and the Fed's internal divergence and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the negative side [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - The report provides the previous day's closing, highest, lowest, price changes, and price change percentages of various precious metal products, including Shanghai gold 2602, Shanghai silver 2602, COMEX gold 2602, etc. For example, Shanghai gold 2602 closed at 1008.76, with a high of 1014.28, a low of 1003.12, a price change of -3.90, and a price change percentage of -0.39% [16]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Attention should be paid to Japan's unemployment rate, Tokyo CPI, industrial output, and retail sales in November; China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November; and a news conference by the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 07:30, Japan's November unemployment rate, job - seeking ratio, and December Tokyo CPI; at 07:50, Japan's November industrial output preliminary value and retail sales; the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada are closed all day; the first Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area Low - altitude Economy High - quality Development Conference is held at an undetermined time; at 10:30, the National Development and Reform Commission holds a news conference to introduce the work related to the national venture capital guidance fund; on Saturday at 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November are announced [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The unchanged warehouse receipts are also bearish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with a decrease in long positions is also bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The decrease in warehouse receipts is bullish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with an increase in long positions is bullish [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 189,259, a decrease of 3,766 or 1.95% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 55,546, a decrease of 501 or 0.89%; the net positions were 133,713, a decrease of 3,265 or 2.38% [30]. - **Shanghai Silver**: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 393,810, a decrease of 8,438 or 2.10% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 306,880, a decrease of 4,494 or 1.44%; the net positions were 86,930, a decrease of 3,944 or 4.34% [32]. - **SPDR Gold ETF**: The ETF holdings turned to an increase [34]. - **Silver ETF**: The ETF holdings decreased slightly [36]. - **Shanghai Gold Warehouse Receipts**: There was a slight increase [38]. - **COMEX Gold Warehouse Receipts**: There was a slight increase and remained at a high level [39]. - **Shanghai Silver Warehouse Receipts**: Continued to decrease slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years [41]. - **COMEX Silver Warehouse Receipts**: Continued to decrease [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, the dollar once hit a nearly three - month low, and gold briefly rose above $4500 before falling back. The US three major stock indexes had a five - day winning streak, European trading was light, and US Treasury yields fell across the board. The COMEX gold futures closed down 0.01% at $4505.4 per ounce. With the Christmas holiday, many overseas markets are closed, and there is still a possibility of an abnormal rally. The gold price retreated after reaching the $4500 mark, with high - level profit - taking. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 5.86 yuan/gram. [4] - For silver, overseas trading was light, but domestic precious metals were fully promoted. Coupled with the impact of the silver fund, Shanghai silver soared. The COMEX silver futures closed up 1.04% at $71.875 per ounce. During the Christmas holiday, the domestic silver price rose significantly independently and fell back at night. The premium of Shanghai silver once expanded to 1400 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment was extremely high. With overseas Christmas holidays, an abnormal rally is still possible, and the silver price remains strong with the support of funds, but there is a high - premium risk in the silver fund. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The dollar hit a near - three - month low, gold rose above $4500 and then fell back. The US three major stock indexes had a five - day winning streak, European trading was light, US Treasury yields fell, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 2.73 basis points to 4.136%, the dollar index rose 0.06% to 97.95, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar to 7.0076. The COMEX gold futures closed down 0.01% at $4505.4 per ounce. [4] - Silver: Overseas trading was light, domestic precious metals were promoted, and with the impact of the silver fund, Shanghai silver soared. The US three major stock indexes had a five - day winning streak, European trading was light, US Treasury yields fell, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 2.73 basis points to 4.136%, the dollar index rose 0.06% to 97.95, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the dollar to 7.0076. The COMEX silver futures closed up 1.04% at $71.875 per ounce. [5] 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The Christmas holiday means most overseas markets are closed, but pay attention to the speech of the Bank of Japan governor. The gold price retreated after reaching $4500 with high - level profit - taking. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 5.86 yuan/gram. Although most overseas markets are closed, an abnormal rally cannot be ruled out, so operate with caution. [4] - Silver: During the Christmas holiday, the domestic silver price rose significantly independently and fell back at night. The premium of Shanghai silver once expanded to 1400 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment was extremely high. With overseas Christmas holidays, an abnormal rally is still possible. With the support of funds, the silver price remains strong, but considering the high - premium risk in the silver fund, operate with caution. [5] 3.3. Today's Focus - All day: Christmas, South Korean stocks, Hong Kong stocks, European stocks, US stocks, etc. are closed. Trading of the Malaysian BMD's palm oil futures contracts, the ICE's Brent crude contracts, and the CME's precious metals, US crude, foreign exchange, and agricultural product contracts is suspended all day. - Time to be determined: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech at the Japan Business Federation. - 15:00: The Ministry of Commerce will hold its 4th regular press conference in December. [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 6.3, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 93711 kilograms, an increase of 1995 kilograms, which is bearish. [4] - Silver: The basis is - 4, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 881949 kilograms, a decrease of 17714 kilograms, which is bullish. [5] 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, both of which are bullish. [4] - Silver: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, both of which are bullish. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. Gold and silver prices initially rose but then fell. The gold-silver ratio is at a low level, and gold prices still have support. Silver prices still have capital support, but risk appetite may fluctuate significantly on the triple witching day of US stocks [4][5] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting gold and silver prices, and the upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited [9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. On Friday, the triple witching day of US stocks, gold prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $4363.9 per ounce [4] - **Silver**: The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. The increase in lithium carbonate prices converged, and silver prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 2.17% to $65.45 per ounce [5] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -5.8, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. Gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 6 kilograms to 91716 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4] - **Silver**: The basis is -26, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is neutral. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 240 kilograms to 912164 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5] 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple important events and data releases today, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, speeches by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials, US November existing home sales, and the final value of the US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index [4][5][14] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The Fed's interest rate cut and the optimistic expectation of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and the upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited [9] - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil, inflation concerns, and the impact of tariffs [12][13] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long position volume on December 18 was 195,799, an increase of 2,994 or 1.55% compared to December 17. The short position volume was 54,671, a decrease of 906 or 1.63% compared to December 17. The net position was 141,128, an increase of 3,900 or 2.84% compared to December 17 [4][29] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased. The long position volume on December 18 was 397,940, a decrease of 11,017 or 2.69% compared to December 17. The short position volume was 289,399, a decrease of 14,052 or 4.63% compared to December 17. The net position was 108,541, an increase of 3,035 or 2.88% compared to December 17 [5][31]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Report Subject: Precious Metals Morning Report Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **Gold**: After the UK CPI, the market's expectation of the central bank cutting interest rates within the year has increased. The US dollar rebounded, and gold prices continued to rise. The gold price was also pushed up by the sharp rise in silver prices. The gold - silver ratio is at a low level, and the gold price still has support [4]. - **Silver**: The sharp rise in lithium carbonate has led to another substantial increase in silver prices. Although the US dollar rebounded at night, the upward momentum of silver prices has been significantly curbed. The bullish sentiment for Shanghai silver remains high [5]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $4371.40 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.36 basis points to 4.153%. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0399 [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.36 basis points to 4.153%. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0399 [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.93, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The gold futures warehouse receipt is 91302 kilograms, an increase of 3 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 34, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 890715 kilograms, with a daily increase of 32901 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the long position of the main force has decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Events include the official launch of the full - island customs closure operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, US President Trump's national speech, the Ministry of Commerce's regular press conference, interest rate decisions of multiple central banks (Swedish, Norwegian, British, European, Mexican), the release of the US November CPI and the number of initial jobless claims for the week of December 13th, and the European Council meeting to discuss issues such as Ukraine and the EU's multi - year financial framework [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and it is difficult for the gold price to decline. The recent interest rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market, and the upward impetus of the gold price still exists but is limited [9]. - **Silver**: The silver price still follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of December 17, 2025, the long position volume was 192,805, an increase of 1.40% compared to the previous day; the short position volume was 55,577, a decrease of 2.31%; the net position was 137,228, an increase of 2.98% [29]. - **Silver**: As of December 17, 2025, the long position volume was 408,957, an increase of 4.49% compared to the previous day; the short position volume was 303,451, an increase of 7.29%; the net position was 105,506, a decrease of 2.82% [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given text, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Views - Market perceives Fed Chair Powell's speech as more dovish than expected, leading to an upward trend in gold and silver prices. The market ignores the pause in rate - cuts, and the London market accelerated its upward movement before the domestic market opened, in line with the upward trend of the domestic market [4][5]. - For gold, the upward trend remains unchanged. The morning premium of Shanghai gold is - 12 yuan/gram, indicating a potential price increase of 9 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, the bullish sentiment in Shanghai silver remains strong. The morning premium of Shanghai silver is 20 yuan/gram, suggesting a price increase of 380 yuan/kg, hitting a new high. However, the gold - silver ratio is extremely low, and usually, the recovery of the gold - silver ratio is mainly driven by a decline in silver prices, so cautious operation is recommended. The market believes the Fed is dovish, and the target of 15000 for Shanghai silver is hard to abandon [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4236.6 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2.35 basis points to 4.188%. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.0602. The gold futures price was 956.4, the spot price was 951.2, with a basis of - 5.3 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts were 91299 kg, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 4.72% to $61.16 per ounce. The silver futures price was 14373, the spot price was 14351, with a basis of - 22 (spot at a discount to futures). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 741845 kg, an increase of 24057 kg compared to the previous day. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The market believes the Fed is dovish, and the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged. The morning premium of Shanghai gold is - 12 yuan/gram, indicating a potential price increase of 9 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The bullish sentiment in Shanghai silver remains strong. The morning premium of Shanghai silver is 20 yuan/gram, suggesting a price increase of 380 yuan/kg, hitting a new high. However, the gold - silver ratio is extremely low, and cautious operation is recommended. The market believes the Fed is dovish, and the target of 15000 for Shanghai silver is hard to abandon [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's Q4 BSI large - scale manufacturing confidence index - 08:30: Australia releases its November employment report (including employment population and unemployment rate) - 15:00: China's Ministry of Commerce holds its second regular press conference in December - 16:30: Swiss National Bank announces its interest - rate decision - 17:00: Swiss National Bank President Schlegel holds a press conference - 17:50: Bank of England Governor Bailey participates in a pre - recorded fireside chat with the Financial Times, with the topic related to global financial stability - 18:00: Bank of England Governor Bailey presents evidence at the "UK COVID Inquiry" - 20:00: National Bank of Ukraine announces its interest - rate decision - 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6, September trade balance; Canada's September trade balance - Next day 01:00: Fed releases data on the financial health of US households from the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds Report [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recently, the Fed's rate cuts and the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market, and combined with liquidity concerns, there is still upward momentum for gold prices, but it is limited [9]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 651 (0.38%) to 173,961 on December 10 compared to December 9; the short positions decreased by 209 (- 0.36%) to 58,557; the net position increased by 860 (0.75%) to 115,404 [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 21,648 (5.33%) to 428,103 on December 10 compared to December 9; the short positions increased by 24,468 (8.15%) to 324,706; the net position decreased by 2,820 (- 2.65%) to 103,397 [5][31].