Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices reaching their lowest point since 2019, leading to substantial pressure on the breeding sector and impacting the profitability of major companies like Muyuan Foods [3][4][12]. Price Trends - As of March 2026, the average price of live pigs has dropped to 11.05 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 28% [3][12]. - Post-Spring Festival, pork prices have further declined, with wholesale prices falling from 11 yuan/kg in Q4 2025 to approximately 9 yuan/kg [6][12]. - The pig-to-grain price ratio has fallen to 4.40:1, indicating that pig farming has entered a warning zone due to excessive price declines [12]. Company Performance - Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 154.87 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decline of 13.39%, despite achieving a revenue of 1,441.45 billion yuan, which is a 4.49% increase [14]. - The company's breeding cost has decreased to 12 yuan/kg, but the ongoing drop in pig prices has severely compressed profit margins, with Q4 2025 profits plummeting to 7.08 billion yuan, a 90% reduction [4][14]. Market Dynamics - The supply pressure is a key factor driving down prices, with high levels of pig output persisting since December 2025, compounded by weak consumer demand post-holiday [12][19]. - Despite lower prices, the sales volume has not significantly increased, with retailers reporting stable daily sales around half a pig [8][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig price may see a turning point around April to May 2026, as the number of new piglets has begun to decline, suggesting a potential reduction in supply [19]. - The government has initiated measures to stabilize the market, including a central reserve of frozen pork, which may further influence price recovery if low prices persist [19].