风险提示：房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 "破局"通胀：反内卷与扩内需 [Table_Authors] 2025 年 6 月物价数据点评 本报告导读： 今年以来，"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格，带动核心 CPI 同比小幅 修复，而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振，指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 限，需要后续稳增长政策接续。 投资要点： 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.09 2025-07-13 [Table_Summary] 6 月 CPI 同比转正。食品价格拖累减弱；国际油价上涨输入带动能 源价格；核心 CPI 环比持平，核心消费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023、 2024 年，"618"提前促销影响过去后，"以旧换新"政策支持的相关品 类价格仍相对偏强，而服务相关价格继续稳中偏弱。 6 月 PPI 同比跌幅继续扩张，一是受高温降雨天气影响，房地产、基 建项目施工进度有所放缓。二是"反内卷"具体政策和效果仍待观察， 尤其是对光伏、水泥、钢铁等行业实际供需格局的影响。三 ...

广发宏观周度述评（第22期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-21期，复盘必读） 内容 第一，如何理解房地产发展"新模式"？ 它"新"在哪里？从政策相关的表述细节中，我们可以形成一个大致的理解框架： 一是顺应住房升级需求，鼓励"好房子"，在存量之外培育一个增量市场。 在市场总容量既定的前提下，高质量供给一样可以创造出结构性的增量市场。我们以汽 车行业为例，多年前市场就有观点认为中国汽车市场已经饱和，但后来产业发展现实证明新能源汽车作为新一代产品出现之后，一个增量市场快速崛起。关于房地 产，政策明确指出要"加大高品质住房供给"、"推动建设安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的好房子"[4]。从中期看，我们理解就是顺应需求升级的基本规律，建设在层 高、设计、建材、环保、适老化等层面更代表新一代标准的住房，鼓励一个高质量的增量市场，逐步替代。 二是通过商品房收储改善改善存量市场的供求关系。 存量供给部分怎么办？2024年4月底政治局会议提出"统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措 施"[5]。5月17日央行设立3000亿元保障性住房再贷款支持存量住房收储[6]。6月住建部召开收购已建成存量商品房用作保障性住房工作视频会议[7]。20 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 07 月 11 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（7.7-7.11） 稳就业新政出台，美国关税隐忧再现 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：南向通扩容助人民币国际化，多项稳就业举措出台。7月 7日，国家外 汇管理局统计数据显示：截至 6月末，外汇储备创近十年新高，央行连续 8个 月增持黄金，未来央行或继续增持黄金，推动我国国际储备资产多元化，在增 强风险防御能力的同时，为推进人民币国际化创造有利条件；8 日，中国人民 银行和香港金管局宣布了数项债券通优化扩容的措施，这将推动人民币国际化 进程，并促进境内债券市场基础设施与国际接轨，助力金融市场协同发展；9 日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题首场新闻 发布会，"十四五"规划确定的战略任务全面落地，内需始终是中国经济发展 的主动力和稳定锚；同日，国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支 持力度的通知》，从 7个方面提出政策举措，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期，推动经济高质量发展。 海外：美国关税再生波澜，选举预期引发日债波动。当地时间 7月 7 ...

三、请补充说明境外子公司涉及的境外投资、外汇登记等监管程序具体履行情况，并就合规性出具结论 性意见。 招股书显示，牧原股份为生猪养殖行业的全球领导者，已覆盖育种、生猪养殖、饲料生产、屠宰及肉类 加工的全产业链条。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021年起，按生猪产能及出栏量计量，公司是全球第 一大生猪养殖企业，生猪出栏量连续四年居全球第一。按生猪出栏量计算，公司的全球市场份额从2021 年的2.6%增长到2024年的5.6%，于2024年已经超过第二至第四的市场参与者的合计市场份额数。 一、请补充说明公司及子公司经营范围是否涉及《外商投资准入特别管理措施（负面清单）（2024年 版）》领域，本次发行上市前后是否持续符合外资准入政策要求。 二、请补充说明用于拓展全球商业版图的募集资金具体用途，包括募投项目、国别地区等，是否涉及需 要履行境外投资审批、核准或备案的情况。 在继续夯实生猪养殖的领先地位的同时，牧原股份自2019年开始进军生猪屠宰肉食业务，以增强公司全 产业链运营的优势。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，按屠宰头数计量，公司于2024年的屠宰与肉食业务位列 全球第五、中国第一。按照收入计量，2021年至2024年间 ...

瑞达期货研究院 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.07.11」 生猪市场周报 价格上涨步伐放慢，出栏节奏是关键 3 行情回顾：生猪价格小幅上涨，主力合约周度上涨0.28%。 行情展望：供应端，中旬规模场出栏有所增加，但当前出栏节奏仍为缓慢，散户亦有惜售情绪，且出 栏均重下降，短期供应偏紧格局犹存。三季度对应母猪产能处于增产周期，中期仍有供应压力。需求 端，高温抑制人们采购猪肉意愿，且学校放假，终端走货速度缓慢，屠宰厂开机率连续回落，不过高 于去年同期。总体来说，消费淡季，需求稳中趋弱，养殖端出栏节奏和二育入场情况是影响短期行情 的关键因素。目前供应仍然偏紧，支持价格偏强震荡，不过中旬出栏量或有所恢复，上涨步伐或放慢， 关注出栏节奏，中期而言，需求淡季以及中期供应压力因素将掣肘价格上方空间。 策略建议：区间交易或9-1正套交易。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货小幅上涨 图1、大连生猪期货价 ...

鸡蛋价格持续下降。当前鸡蛋产能持续增加，鸡蛋需求不及预期，消费需求进入传统淡季，供大于求的 压力或进一步加强。上半年均价为4.020元，同比下降6.02%，均价由1月份5.058元降至6月份3.372元， 环比下降50.00%。 肉、蛋类 猪肉价格呈下降态势。监测数据显示，1月份各县区农贸市场猪肉价格为上半年最高点，均价为14.890 元/斤，六月份为上半年价格最低点，均价为13.550元/斤。其中，精瘦肉均价为14.543元，同比上涨 2.36%；五花肉均价为13.541元，同比上涨0.64%。 牛羊肉价格均小幅波动。随着供应端产能的调整和市场需求的回暖，牛肉价格开始呈现出小幅上涨的趋 势。羊肉行情走势整体呈现出一定的稳定性，但也有小幅波动。上半年鲜牛肉均价为32.431元，同比下 降15.32%，鲜羊肉均价为40.812元，同比下降3.90%。其中6月份，鲜牛肉均价为33.520元，与一月份相 比环比上涨4.59%；鲜羊肉均价为40.920元，与一月份相比环比上涨0.05%。 中国发展网讯山东省东营市发展改革委价格监测，上半年东营市居民生活消费品价格总体运行平稳，其 中粮油价格略有下降；猪肉价格呈下降态势 ...

中国发展网讯山东省临沂市发展改革委价格监测数据显示，7月10日监测的超市55种主要居民生活消费 品零售价格较上周14涨27平14降。其中，粮油副食类价格稳定，蔬菜价格上涨，当前临沂市居民生活消 费品供应充足，市场运行平稳有序。 监测的8个肉禽蛋类品种价格较上周4涨2降2平。监测的精瘦肉、去骨后腿肉、肋排、牛肉每斤价格分别 为15.97元、13.43元、21.92元、33.04元，较上周分别上涨0.31%、1.37%、2.54%、0.30%；羊肉、鸡蛋 每斤价格分别为39.88元、3.13元，较上周分别下降0.62%、7.36%；其他品类价格与上周持平。 蔬菜价格涨跌互现 监测的17个蔬菜品种价格较上周8涨9降。其中西红柿、黄瓜、油菜价格涨幅居前，每斤价格分别为3.52 元、3.01元、2.35元，较上周分别上涨38.42%、25.49%、24.09%；茄子、芹菜、白萝卜价格下降居前， 每斤价格分别为1.96元、2.19元、0.916元，较上周分别下降11.49%、6.12%、6.06%；其他蔬菜品类价格 均小幅波动。 水果价格2涨3降 监测的5个水果2涨3降。苹果、桔子每斤价格分别为5.64元、4.93元，较 ...

Performance Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 320 million to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [1] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, to be between -20 million and -30 million yuan [1] Previous Year Comparison - In the same period last year, the total profit was -660.34 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -540.01 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of -603.60 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share for the previous year was -0.62 yuan [1] Reasons for Turnaround - The expected turnaround in performance is primarily due to a significant decrease in interest expenses and effective cost management strategies, including procurement and supply chain cooperation that reduced the costs of key feed raw materials [1] - The main business segments, including pig farming, feed, and slaughtering, have shown recovery and restructuring, laying a foundation for improved profitability [1] - The second quarter is expected to show a positive net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, although the half-year figure is still projected to be negative due to depreciation and amortization costs from idle pig farms and feed factories, which are estimated to reduce profits by approximately 50 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "subsidy war" in the food delivery market has led to unprecedented discounts, significantly increasing order volumes and consumer excitement in Taizhou, with platforms like JD, Meituan, and Ele.me competing aggressively [1][2][7]. Consumer Experience - Consumers have reported experiencing substantial discounts, with offers such as "18 yuan off 18 yuan" and even zero-cost meals becoming common [2][4]. - One consumer shared that they spent only 0.4 yuan on a drink and 8.3 yuan on a meal due to these discounts, highlighting the extreme affordability during this period [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The food delivery platforms have seen a surge in order volumes, with Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me reporting over 80 million daily orders, including more than 13 million non-food orders [9]. - Despite the initial high level of subsidies, there has been a noted decrease in discount intensity as of July 9, yet order volumes remain high, particularly for popular chain restaurants and beverage shops [7][9]. Industry Impact - The surge in orders has overwhelmed many businesses, with some reporting daily orders increasing by 20 to 30 [9]. - While the profit margins for coffee shops have remained stable, the competition has pressured the profit margins of chain restaurants and other food services [10].

CPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The core CPI has been rising since the beginning of the year, with June's core CPI at 0.7%, the highest since May 2024, driven mainly by core goods rather than services [2] - Service retail growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% from January to May 2025, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively [2] - The core goods CPI is expected to remain resilient in Q3, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, while facing high base pressure in Q4 [5][6] Service Prices - Service prices have shown a downward trend since 2020, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% expected in 2025 [8] - Tourism prices have weakened significantly, with a monthly average growth rate of -0.4% from January to June 2025, indicating a bottleneck in domestic cultural and tourism consumption recovery [9] Food Prices - Food items account for about 18% of the CPI, with pork prices being particularly volatile due to the pig cycle [13] - Pork prices are expected to remain low in Q3, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 as seasonal demand increases [14] Oil Prices - Oil-related products account for approximately 3.5% of the CPI, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $71.9 per barrel in the first half of the year, down 14.7% year-on-year [18] - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half due to weak demand and ongoing supply pressures [19] PPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The PPI has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, with significant price pressures across various industries [20] - Real estate investment and traditional infrastructure growth are dragging down building materials prices, contributing to a 0.9 percentage point decline in PPI [21] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to impact prices in certain industries, potentially providing some support to related commodity prices [29] Overall Economic Indicators - The forecast for PPI in the second half of the year is a slight recovery to around -2.3%, with Q3 PPI growth expected at -2.5% [30] - The GDP growth target for the second half of the year is set at 4.6%-4.7% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5.3%-5.4% [30]