Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming index in China shows a strong upward trend, with significant gains in key stocks, indicating a potential recovery in the industry driven by improved profitability and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) increased by 1.28%, with notable stock performances including Xiaoming Co. up 14.44%, Dabeinong up 5.66%, and Lihua Co. up 4.15% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) rose by 0.58%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 0.69 yuan [1]. Group 2: Price and Profitability Insights - On January 21, 2026, the price of pork was reported at 13.39 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.9% increase compared to the end of 2025 [1]. - Profit margins for self-breeding and purchased pig farming were 43.35 yuan/head and 115.84 yuan/head, respectively, indicating a turnaround in the industry and a potential slowdown in capacity reduction [1]. - The breeding sow inventory at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million heads, down 2.9% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities predicts that the average annual pork price may show a year-on-year decline, but there could be a rebound during the year influenced by seasonal disease impacts [1]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in cost control, those with healthy financials, and reasonably valued firms in the pig farming sector [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Farming Index included Muyuan Foods, Haida Group, and Wens Foodstuffs, collectively accounting for 67.66% of the index [2].

2025年猪价呈震荡下滑态势，年内产能释放推高出栏量，而需求增幅有限，难以形成有效支撑。展望 2026年，生猪供应仍较充裕，需求变动相对被动，预计猪价前低后高，二季度有望出现重要转折点。 2025年猪价震荡下滑 截至12月22日，卓创资讯监测2025年全国瘦肉型生猪均价平均为13.80元／公斤，同比降低17.66%，年 内呈降后横盘稳定再震荡下滑态势。其中，最高价为1月4日的16.36元／公斤，最低价为10月13日的 10.72元／公斤。2025年产能释放，生猪出栏量增加，需求增幅有限，导致猪价同比下跌。 从具体供需来看，供应方面，2025年生猪出栏量增加，利空猪价。 按繁育周期推算，2026年生猪出栏量是由2025年3月到2026年2月份的能繁母猪存栏量决定的。卓创资讯 监测，2025年3月至11月，196家样本企业能繁母猪存栏量先增加后减少，平均为918.31万头，较上一周 期（2024年3月-2024年11月）增加8.54%，对应2026年生猪供应仍较充裕。在去产能政策的要求下， 2025年12月至2026年2月能繁母猪存栏量预计继续缓慢减少，但前期产能高位以及生产效能提升仍为 2026年带来供应压力。 ...