Core Viewpoint - Domestic pork prices have reached a new low for the year, with oversupply issues expected to persist in the short term [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, the price of lean pork in China has dropped to 17.15 yuan per kilogram, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - This price represents a decrease of 3.50% compared to the beginning of the month and a significant decline of 32.44% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is currently no significant improvement in terminal demand, while upstream breeding operations are actively selling off stock [1] - Slaughterhouses are controlling inventory strictly, leading to an oversupply of white pork [1] - Due to sluggish sales, slaughterhouses are reducing prices to increase volume, contributing to the downward price trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The oversupply situation is unlikely to change in the short term, with prices expected to hover at low levels through mid-September [1] - As the double festival approaches at the end of the month, there may be a slight improvement in demand, which could support a price rebound, although any increase is likely to be limited due to the increased supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pork prices have reached a new low for the year in mid-September, primarily due to oversupply and weak demand [1] Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, the price of lean pork in China has dropped to 17.15 yuan per kilogram, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - This represents a decrease of 3.50% compared to the beginning of the month and a significant decline of 32.44% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is currently no significant improvement in terminal demand, while upstream breeding operations are actively selling off stock [1] - Slaughterhouses are controlling inventory strictly, leading to an oversupply of pork [1] - The sluggish sales at slaughterhouses have resulted in price reductions to stimulate volume, causing prices to continue to decline [1] Future Outlook - The oversupply situation is expected to persist in the short term, with prices likely to hover at low levels in mid-September [1] - As the double festival approaches in late September, there may be a slight improvement in demand, which could support a price rebound; however, due to increased supply, any price increase is expected to be limited [1]

Core Insights - The wholesale price of chilled pork in Ningbo is currently stable at 9.3 yuan per jin, a year-on-year decrease of 30.98%, with some pork products reaching the lowest price levels in nearly three years [1][2][6] - Daily sales volume of pork in the Ningbo market averages 1265.1 heads, reflecting an approximate 20% year-on-year increase [1][6] Price Trends - Since August, pork prices in Ningbo have been on a downward trend, reaching the lowest levels for the same period in three years [2] - Prices for specific pork cuts include 9 yuan per jin for front leg meat, 17 yuan for ribs, 17 yuan for tenderloin, and 12 yuan for belly meat, indicating a 10% decrease compared to the previous month [4][6] Market Dynamics - The decline in pork prices is attributed to an oversupply in the market, with increased slaughtering rates since July contributing to the price drop [6][9] - The seasonal nature of pork consumption, particularly during the summer months, has led to a temporary decrease in demand, but a potential increase in demand is expected as the autumn season approaches [6][11] Government Intervention - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve storage to stabilize the market amid falling prices [7][13] - The average pork-to-grain price ratio has dropped below 6:1, triggering a warning under the government's pork reserve adjustment mechanism [13]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the price of white strip pork in Henan experienced a downward trend due to increased supply and reduced demand from group meals, with expectations for a slight recovery in August as temperatures drop and consumption potentially rebounds [1][2][9]. Price Trends - The price of white strip pork in Kaifeng, Henan, was 18.30 yuan/kg as of July 24, down 1.20 yuan/kg (6.15%) from the beginning of the month [2]. - The average price for July was 19.04 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.19% but a year-on-year decrease of 20.89% [2]. Supply Dynamics - The supply of white strip pork in Henan increased significantly, with sales reaching 22,584 heads by July 25, a 12.17% increase from the beginning of the month [2]. - The average temperature in Henan rose to 30.8°C in July, prompting farmers to accelerate the sale of pigs to avoid heat stress, contributing to increased supply [4]. Demand Factors - The demand for pork decreased due to seasonal factors, including the summer heat and reduced group meal requirements, leading to a notable drop in pork orders from slaughterhouses [6][7]. - The fresh sales rate of pork in Henan fell to 84.68% at the end of June, down 4.67 percentage points from the second quarter peak, indicating weakened demand [6]. Outlook for August - The supply pressure is expected to remain high in August, with a potential for price adjustments as temperatures decrease, which may improve consumption [9]. - The forecasted price range for white strip pork in Henan for August is between 17.3 and 18.5 yuan/kg, with expectations for slight upward movement from current levels [9].

Core Viewpoint - In May, the pork market in Henan experienced a price fluctuation, with an average price of 19.05 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous month and year. The market is expected to see a weak start followed by a stronger performance in June, with prices anticipated to narrow down slightly month-on-month [1] Price Trends - The average price of pork in Henan for May was 19.05 yuan/kg, down 0.83% month-on-month and 6.88% year-on-year [1] - The highest price in May reached 19.40 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month, while the lowest was 18.25 yuan/kg on May 23, indicating a price fluctuation range of 1.15 yuan/kg, which is a 109% increase in volatility compared to the previous month [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pork supply in Henan remained high in May, with an average daily fresh pork sales volume of 24,524 heads, a year-on-year increase of 27.73% [1] - The number of live pigs slaughtered daily in May was 27,202 heads, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.58% but a year-on-year increase of 10.57% [1] - The supply pressure is expected to limit the price increase of pork, despite strong intentions for secondary fattening after price declines [1] Future Outlook - The pork price in Henan is projected to experience a weak start followed by a potential recovery in June, influenced by demand fluctuations and high supply levels [1] - The demand is expected to dip post-holiday, but a rebound may occur around the Dragon Boat Festival, leading to a potential price increase [1] - The upstream market is facing pressure from high pig weights and price inversions, which may lead to a price drop, but strong secondary fattening intentions could support a price rebound [1]