玉米价格波动
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玉米 缺乏上行驱动力
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-02-13 03:41
Group 1: Corn Market Overview - In 2025, domestic corn prices fell to low levels due to high yields and declining costs, with the main futures contract switching from 2603 to 2605 in February 2026 [1] - As of February 6, the national grain sales progress reached 61%, 4 percentage points faster year-on-year, with Northeast and North China regions showing even higher sales progress [1] - The increase in supply from farmers and grain holders has led to a noticeable rise in port arrivals, from 500,000 tons per week to 800,000 tons per week [1] Group 2: Deep Processing Industry - The starch industry operates at a capacity rate of 57.79%, higher than last year's 53.3%, but overall operational levels remain low [1] - Since 2025, high corn prices have exacerbated losses in the starch and alcohol industries, limiting the potential for increased operational rates [1] Group 3: Feed Demand and Pig Inventory - The inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.61 million heads by the end of December 2025, but profitability returned in January 2026, potentially causing fluctuations in the capacity reduction process [2] - As of January, the inventory of breeding sows in monitored farms showed a slight increase, indicating a temporary stall in the capacity reduction process [2] - Despite fluctuations in corn prices, the overall supply of pigs is expected to remain ample for the next 10 months, supporting long-term feed demand [2] Group 4: Inventory Levels and Price Support - As of the end of January, port corn inventories were at historical lows, with significant year-on-year decreases, providing a bottom support for spot prices [2] - Pre-holiday stocking demand has led to a noticeable increase in inventory levels for grain enterprises, with feed companies' corn inventory days rising to 32.59 days, a near-high level [3] - Overall, while channel inventories are low, terminal enterprises have built sufficient stocks, indicating limited upward momentum for corn prices in the short term [3]