| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情回归及国际玉米基本面情况 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | | 4 | | | 5 | | 第三部分 | 国内玉米基本面分析 6 | | | 6 | | | 7 | | | 9 | | | 11 | | | 12 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 13 | | | 免责声明 15 | 玉米和淀粉研发报告 玉米和淀粉半年报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 第一部分 前言概要 陈作供应偏紧 新季种植成本下降 银河期货 第 2 页 共 16 页 玉米和淀粉半年报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 玉米和淀粉研发报告 第二部分 行情分析及国际玉米基本面情况 图1：锦州港平舱价（元/吨） 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 1-1 1-16 1-31 2-15 3-2 3-17 4-1 4-16 5-1 5-16 5-31 6-15 6-30 7-15 7-30 8-14 8-29 9-13 9-28 10- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global corn supply is decreasing while consumption is increasing, leading to a decline in the inventory-to-consumption ratio and a relatively strong global corn price. In the international market, US corn is affected by tariffs, planting area, and weather, with an expected price range of 440 - 520 cents per bushel. Brazilian corn may face weather speculation later. In the domestic market, corn supply is tightening, port inventories are decreasing, and there is still room for spot price increases, but the increase is limited due to policy factors. Starch inventory is starting to decline, and the profit loss of starch enterprises may decrease. There may be opportunities to expand the spread between 09 corn and starch [6][10]. - The report provides investment strategies, including going long on US corn at low prices, considering expanding the spread between 09 corn and starch at low prices, buying physical corn and shorting the 07 corn futures contract, and spot enterprises selling corn call options after price rallies [8][84]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary a. Market Review - In April, due to the postponed tariff, US corn rebounded from the bottom to 500 cents per bushel but started to decline in mid - April due to the expected South American bumper harvest and US corn area. In the domestic market, the corn selling progress accelerated, wheat was affected by drought, corn supply decreased, port inventories declined, and corn prices rose slightly. The 05 corn contract fluctuated narrowly, and the basis narrowed. The 07 corn and starch contracts also fluctuated narrowly [5]. b. Market Outlook - Internationally, US corn is expected to fluctuate between 440 - 520 cents per bushel under the influence of tariffs, planting area, and weather. Brazilian corn may face weather speculation later. Domestically, corn supply is tightening, port inventories will continue to decline, and there is still room for spot price increases. However, in May, there will be more policies, and the upward space for corn spot prices is limited. For starch, as the by - product prices may rise, starch inventory is starting to decline, and the profit loss of starch enterprises will decrease. The starch delivery volume in May may be high, which will temporarily suppress the market, but there may be opportunities to expand the spread between 09 corn and starch [6]. c. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Go long on US corn at low prices. The 07 corn contract is likely to have strong support around 2290 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: Consider expanding the spread between 09 corn and starch at low prices. Buy physical corn and short the 07 corn futures contract. - Options: Spot enterprises can sell corn call options after price rallies [8]. 2. International Corn Fundamental Situation a. Global Corn Production Expected to be Lower than Last Year - In April 2025, the USDA report showed that the global corn production increased slightly month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, consumption increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The expected global corn production in the 24/25 season is 1.215 billion tons, 14.23 million tons less than last year. Feed corn consumption is 781 million tons, and total domestic consumption is 1.235 billion tons, both higher than last year. The expected ending inventory is 288 million tons, lower than last year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 23.29%. The prices of global corn are relatively strong due to the decrease in supply and increase in consumption [10]. b. US Corn is in the Planting Season, and Tariffs and Area Still Have a Great Impact - The April report showed that the US corn harvest area remained unchanged, with a yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. The US corn area in the 24/25 season is about 90.6 million acres, lower than last year. The potential US tariff increase may affect corn exports, and the future area is still highly uncertain, currently estimated at 92 - 93 million acres. As of April 20, the US corn planting progress was 12%, higher than the same period last year, and the emergence rate was 2%, compared with 3% last year [13]. c. The Second - Crop Planting of Brazilian Corn is Completed, and Exports are Higher than the Same Period Last Year - The harvesting progress of the first - crop corn in Brazil has accelerated, and the second - crop planting is completed, with exports higher than last year. As of April 19, the harvesting rate of the first - crop corn was 68.2%, compared with 56.7% last year and a five - year average of 63.4%. From January to March 2025, Brazil's cumulative exports were 4.98 million tons, higher than 4.37 million tons in the same period last year [17][21]. 3. Domestic Corn Fundamental Analysis a. Domestic Grain - Selling Progress Accelerates, Imported Grains Decrease Significantly, and Spot Prices Rise Slightly - The domestic grain - selling progress is much faster than last year and also higher than in 2023. As of April 18, the grain - selling progress in 13 provinces was 93%, 6% faster than last year and higher than 91% in 2023. The grain - selling progress in 7 major producing provinces was 93%, 5% faster than last year. Due to the significant reduction in farmers' remaining grain and strong reluctance to sell among traders, corn spot prices have continued to rise. At the end of April, the FOB price at the northern ports was basically between 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the prices in North China also rose slightly. Corn and grain imports have decreased significantly. From January to March, corn imports were 260,000 tons, lower than 7.9 million tons in the same period last year. The total imports of corn, sorghum, barley, and DDGS were 3.91 million tons, lower than 14.52 million tons in the same period last year [25][26]. b. Feed Demand is Still Recovering, and Corn Demand Continues to Increase - Feed demand is still growing. According to the Feed Industry Association, the cumulative feed production from January to February was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The National Bureau of Statistics showed that the feed production in March was 27.77 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to March was 77.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The profit of pig farming has slightly decreased, but the pig inventory is higher than last year. As of April 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig was 146 yuan, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 60 yuan. In February, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 35.4457 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%. The profit of white - feather broiler farming has expanded in April. As of April 23, the farming profit was 0.65 yuan per chicken. The profit of egg farming as of April 21 was - 0.17 yuan per kilogram, and the laying - hen inventory has continued to increase. Due to the significant reduction in the use of other grains in feed, the use of corn in feed continues to increase [27]. c. The Profit Loss of Deep - Processed Corn has Expanded, and the Operating Rate has Decreased - In April 2025, as corn prices continued to rise and by - product prices remained relatively stable, the profit loss of starch has expanded, the operating rate has started to decline, and corn inventories are still low. As of April 16, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 5.887 million tons, higher than the same period last month and last year. The operating rate of starch enterprises has decreased. As of April 23, the operating rate was 58.37%. The starch inventory of starch enterprises is higher than last year, and the losses of these enterprises have increased. As of April 23, the starch profit in Heilongjiang was - 94 yuan per ton, and in Shandong, it was - 144 yuan per ton. The starch inventory has started to decline but is still higher than last year. It is expected that the starch inventory will continue to decline in April, and the starch profit may increase. The import of cassava starch increased in March 2025, and the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch is low, so some corn starch will continue to be replaced, suppressing starch demand. It is expected that the minimum profit of Shandong starch enterprises in May may be between - 50 and - 150 yuan per ton, and the profit will improve after May. The price difference between corn and starch has limited downward space [49][50]. d. Corn Inventories at Northern and Southern Ports are Continuously Decreasing - In April, the corn inventory at northern ports continued to decline, and the grain inventory at southern ports also decreased. As of April 18, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 4.461 million tons, an increase of 980,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the inventory continued to fall. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 1.62 million tons, the foreign trade inventory was 103,000 tons, the imported sorghum was 165,000 tons, and the imported barley was 707,000 tons, with a total grain inventory of 2.595 million tons. The shipping volume is higher than last year, and the northern port inventory will continue to decline in May [67]. e. Trading Logic of Corn and Starch - In May 2025, farmers' remaining grain will continue to decrease, corn supply will remain tight, and there are few substitutes, so there is still room for corn spot prices to rise. The focus of this year's trading is the shortage of North China corn. The data this year is similar to that in 2023, and the grain - selling progress is slightly faster. Due to the significant reduction in imported grains and North China corn, North China corn will remain in short supply. The price difference between wheat and corn may shrink to about 50 yuan per ton, and the corn price in Weifang, Shandong will rise to about 2380 yuan per ton by the end of June. The price difference between North China corn and Northeast corn will remain high, and the price difference between North China corn and northern port prices and futures prices will expand. For corn starch, due to the high inventory, stable by - product prices, and expanding losses, starch enterprises will shut down to protect profits. It is expected that the price difference between starch and corn will remain high, with support around 450 yuan per ton in Shandong and Heilongjiang. Currently, the by - products and the operating rate of North China starch enterprises still bring high uncertainties to starch, and it is difficult to determine the high and low points of the corn - starch price difference, so it can only be traded as a range - bound market [71]. 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation a. Corn - US corn prices rose and then fell in April, and there are still two uncertainties: tariffs and planting area. In May, North American weather will start to be a factor, increasing the volatility of US corn. The 07 US corn is expected to fluctuate between 440 - 520 cents per bushel. The new - season domestic corn in the 24/25 season will have a reduced output, imported grains will decrease significantly, and demand will increase slowly, resulting in a tight supply of corn in the 24/25 season, especially in North China. Port inventories will continue to decline in May, and corn spot prices will approach wheat prices (with a price difference within 100 yuan). In May, the drought of wheat will still be a topic, but considering the good irrigation facilities in wheat - producing areas, wheat spot prices are expected to be slightly stronger. There will be more policy news in May, and the corn market is constrained by policies and wheat on the upside and supported by tight supply and increasing demand on the downside. It is expected that the spot price of corn will fluctuate slightly in May, with the FOB price at northern ports ranging from 2230 - 2300 yuan/ton, the corn price in Suihua, Heilongjiang from 2070 - 2130 yuan/ton, and the corn price in Weifang, Shandong from 2280 - 2380 yuan/ton [81][82]. b. Starch - As corn prices rise and starch enterprises face large losses, it is expected that starch spot prices will also rise, but due to high inventory, the increase will be slow, and the profit loss of starch enterprises will continue. In May, starch demand will start to recover, but inventory is still high, and cassava starch will continue to replace corn starch, so the supply pressure of corn starch is still large. As soybean meal prices will remain high, the by - products of starch enterprises may rise, and combined with the decrease in the operating rate, the losses of starch enterprises will narrow. It is expected that the 2750 yuan/ton price of Shandong starch and the 2550 yuan/ton price of Heilongjiang starch will have strong support, and Shandong starch prices will continue to rise. The long - position funds for the 5 - 7 starch spread are large, and the delivery volume in May is likely to be high, with some starch warehouse receipts flowing into the market. It is expected that the spread between 07 corn and starch will fluctuate narrowly, the 7 - 9 starch spread will widen, and there may be opportunities to expand the spread between 09 corn and starch [83]. c. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on US corn at low prices. The 07 corn contract is likely to have strong support around 2290 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: Consider expanding the spread between 09 corn and starch at low prices. Buy physical corn and short the 07 corn futures contract. - Options: Spot enterprises can sell corn call options after price rallies [84].