农产品期权 2025-08-26 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花弱势盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

玉米现货持续回落 盘面底部震荡 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米受降息预期影响及后期可能下调单产，美玉米12合约反弹到400美分/蒲以上。截止8月22日，玉米拍卖367万吨，成交130万吨，成交率36%。 进口玉米持续拍卖，09仓单仍较高，国内种植成本降低，新季玉米陆续上市，国内玉米现货继续回落。目前市场焦点依旧是新作，尤其是华北市场，市场预期华 北玉米10月大量上市大概率跌破2200元/吨。01玉米底部震荡，短期2150元/吨附近震荡。 淀粉：淀粉厂开机 ...

玉米：本周，储备继续进行玉米拍卖的操作，合计拍卖进口玉米38.4万吨，成交5.67万吨，成交情况趋于清淡。短期看，新季玉米即将上市， 市场观望心态偏浓，存粮户也愿意兑现手中库存，港口现货报价走弱带动盘面价格回落，不过从进口谷物增量和当下拍卖成交情况观察，供应 增量有限的情况下市场也不具备大跌的预期，预计继续维持偏弱震荡格局。中长期视角，重点关注新季玉米上市后产区售粮积极性。在新季产 量增加与成本下滑的大背景下，价格预计仍将承压下行，直至国内消费出现好转或产区显现惜售情绪，行情才可能迎来转折。 淀粉：本周，淀粉报价小幅下调，不过随着原料成本同时下降，使得近期企业加工利润小幅小幅。短期看，受原料价格波动影响淀粉价格跟随 波动，深加工产量维持高位，下游提货积极性欠佳，行业库存持续累积，继续对价格形成压力。中长期看，成品淀粉库存高企限制企业调价空 间，叠加新季原料成本预期下移，因此对淀粉价格仍维持偏空思路。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/25 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

| 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/08/15 | 6040 | 5980 | 5860 | 376 | 236 | 419 | 17104 | | 2025/08/18 | 6040 | 5980 | 5855 | 368 | 291 | 474 | 16932 | | 2025/08/19 | 6040 | 5980 | 5855 | 379 | 275 | 458 | 16487 | | 2025/08/20 | 6030 | 5970 | 5855 | 354 | 194 | 377 | 16245 | | 2025/08/21 | 6030 | 5970 | 5855 | 342 | 255 | 438 | 15752 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | 61 | 61 | -493 | | 【行情分析】： | | | | | | | | | | ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/14 | 2230 | 2270 | 2428 | 2410 | -11 | 5 | 425 | 2900 | 2980 | 207 | -31 | | 2025/08/15 | - | 2270 | 2428 | 2400 | 80 | -5 | 336 | 2900 | 2980 | 241 | -31 | | 2025/08/18 | - | 2260 | 2468 | 2400 | 83 | 5 | 306 | 2900 | 2980 | 261 | -31 | | 2025/08/19 | - | ...

| | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/20 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/13 | 2230 | 2250 | 2428 | 2390 | -29 | 5 | 413 | 2900 | 2980 | 204 | -38 | | 2025/08/14 | 2230 | 2270 | 2428 | 2410 | -11 | 5 | 425 | 2900 | 2980 | 207 | -31 | | 2025/08/15 | - | 2270 | 2428 | 2400 | 80 | -5 | 336 | 2900 | 2980 | 241 | -31 | | 2025/08/18 | - | 2260 | 2468 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, corn prices will continue to fluctuate with an upper limit and a lower support. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under pressure until domestic consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in production areas [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, the starch market will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, Zheng sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. - Cotton: It has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [9]. - Eggs: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. - Apples: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. - Pigs: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while in Jinzhou it decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Weifang it increased by 40 yuan/ton. For starch, the prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, corn prices will fluctuate, and starch prices will be weakly fluctuating. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to decline, and a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained unchanged, while in Kunming it decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 172 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price of 3128 cotton remained unchanged, and the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased slightly. The spot price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, egg prices in various production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.22 yuan in Hebei and Liaoning. The basis decreased by 30 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national apple inventory decreased by 76,000 tons [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, pig prices in various production areas decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 25 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides market data and analysis for various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs on August 18, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Corn and Starch Market Data - This week, 395,000 tons of imported corn were auctioned, with 67,000 tons sold, and the trading situation became sluggish. The price of starch was slightly reduced, and enterprises were still operating at a loss [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Starch prices will follow the raw material price fluctuations and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3] - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline under pressure, and the starch price outlook remains bearish [3] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained mostly stable, the basis decreased by 5, and the import profit increased [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, the sugar price is under pressure due to the peak crushing season in Brazil. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price has a smaller fluctuation range, and the futures price faces upward pressure [6] Group 4: Cotton Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 30, the import profit of M - grade US cotton was relatively stable, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 117 [9] Market Analysis - The cotton market has entered a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [9] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the egg prices in Hebei and Liaoning remained stable, while those in Shandong and Henan increased by 0.1. The basis increased by 50 [14] Market Analysis - In July, the egg price rebounded rapidly due to supply and demand factors. In early August, due to sufficient inventory in food factories and weak demand, the egg price declined. Attention should be paid to the chicken culling rhythm and cold - storage egg release [14] Group 6: Apples Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 on August 11 - 13 and then dropped to 7300 on August 14 - 15. The national inventory decreased by 44 [15][16] Market Analysis - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the western region may increase, while that in Shandong is expected to decrease by about 20%. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low [16] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the pig prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, and the basis decreased by 95 [16] Market Analysis - The reduction of pig production capacity is insufficient, and there is still medium - term supply pressure. The futures price has a premium. The short - term spot price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [16]

农产品期权 2025-08-18 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏强震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花多头上涨有所回落，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures night market closed with most contracts rising, indicating a positive trend in commodity prices, particularly in palm oil and coking coal, which saw significant increases [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Palm oil and coking coal both rose by over 2% during the night session [1] - Coking coal's increase reflects strong demand and potential supply constraints in the market [1] - Other commodities such as coke and glass also experienced gains of over 1% [1] Group 2: Minor Declines - Starch and methanol saw slight declines, indicating mixed performance across different commodities [1]