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基本面呈现"内外双弱"格局 短期玉米表现偏弱
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-19 07:02
Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.68% at 2177 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - ProFarmer's crop survey predicts Ohio's corn yield for 2025 at 185.69 bushels per acre, up from 183.29 bushels per acre in 2024. South Dakota's corn yield is expected to be 174.18 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to 156.51 bushels per acre in 2024 [2] - The USDA's export inspection report shows that as of the week ending August 14, 2025, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,050,715 tons, at the lower end of expectations, down 31% from the previous week and down 14% year-on-year [2] - In the third week of August 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 3.1264 million tons of corn, compared to 6.0632 million tons in August last year. The average daily shipment was 284,200 tons, an increase of 3.13% from 275,600 tons per day last August [2] Institutional Views - Zhengxin Futures indicates that strong exports support a rebound in U.S. corn prices, while domestic reserve purchases bolster wheat prices. However, short-term corn supply remains stable, and market bearish sentiment persists, suggesting a weak performance for corn in the short term. In the medium to long term, as the new corn harvest approaches, selling pressure from traders is expected to increase, leading to an overall weak trend for corn [3] - Zhongyuan Futures notes a "double weakness" in fundamentals: on one hand, the USDA report continues to exert a bearish effect, maintaining a high good-to-excellent rate of 72% for U.S. corn, which suppresses import costs; on the other hand, the domestic state reserve's corn auction has a low transaction rate of only 18%, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Current prices have broken below the previous range of 2180-2200, suggesting that existing short positions should be held, and new positions should focus on shorting at resistance levels around 2185, while being cautious of potential drops before the new corn season in September [3]