长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-24 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：腌腊旺季考验，期价低位震荡 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 数据来源：Mysteel iFinD 卓创资讯 长江期货饲料养殖中心 u 期现端：截至11月21日，鸡蛋主产区均价报2.85元/斤，较上周五跌0.12元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报2.91元/斤，较上周五跌0.13元/斤；鸡蛋主力2601收 于3184元/500千克，较上周五跌51元/500千克；主力合约基差-604元/500千克，较上周五走弱79元/500千克。周度蛋价窄幅偏弱，市场缺乏节日提振， 终端需求较为平淡，下游渠道采购偏谨慎，消化库存为主，蛋价窄幅偏弱调整，不过蛋价跌至偏低水平会刺激下游补库需求，对蛋价形成支撑，预计 未来一周现货小幅反弹。盘面主力转为01合约，偏弱震荡挤压盘面升水，当前基差处于历史同期偏低水平。 u 供应端：11月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年7月补栏，环同比均下滑，但开产 ...

Z0015545 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-24 生猪价格重心下行，玉米盘面突破 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 生猪 上周生猪期货延续下行趋势，LH2601 合约报收 11350 元/吨， 较前周结算价下跌 3.73%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.74 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.22 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 21 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-135.9 元/头，环比下降 21.09 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-234.63 元/头，环比下降 28.99 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.23，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格先跌后稳，市场供应相对宽松，散户扛 价惜售情绪较弱，周初价格再度下跌；随着气温下降，局部需求有 所回暖，养殖场成交好转，生猪价格止跌趋稳。目前来看，养殖端 低价抵触情绪升温，但整体出栏压力仍存，同时终端需求暂未有较 大提升，屠宰部分虽有增加，但供应增量大于需求增量，需求端支 撑有限，生猪供应过剩的局面仍在，预计短期生猪价格反弹发力， 持续关注养殖场出栏节奏及出栏情绪变化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | 5月-1月 | | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | | 2025/11/21 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/20 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/19 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/18 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | | 2025/11/17 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 . | 0 | 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com ...

截至2025年11月21日当周，玉米期货主力合约收于2195元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持2138 手。 本周（11月17日-11月21日）市场上看，玉米期货周内开盘报2188元/吨，最高触及2205元/吨，最低下探 至2162元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.60%。 消息面回顾： 11月20日，鲅鱼圈港地区水分15%容重720以上的新玉米报价2170-2175元/吨，水分15%玉米平舱价 2220-2240元/吨，较昨日下跌10元/吨。 机构观点汇总： 南华期货（603093）：从供应来看，玉米存量粮源继续消耗，供应压力逐步缓解，但四季度供应能力充 足，观察基层售粮情绪；从需求来看，深加工维持按需采购，维持库存节奏。饲料企业多同时采购本地 和东北粮源，库存水平有所上升。期货盘面延续震荡整理，现货因素驱动有限，价格暂形成窄幅区间震 荡，整体看，目前持粮主体心态较稳，下游收购刚需，短期供需结构有所平衡，重点关注年底卖压情 况，或对价格造成阶段性压力。【南华观点】底部区间偏强震荡单边上行难度较大。 东吴期货：饲料企业库存水平明显偏低，北方四港以及深加工企业库存也不高，近期也受中下游建库支 撑，期货上涨，深加工利润 ...

Report Title - Corn Bullish in the Short Term, Maintain Low-Buying Strategy; Pig Prices Grinding at the Bottom, Weak Oscillation in the Futures Market; Egg Spot Prices Oscillating at Low Levels, Near-Term Contracts Gaining Premium [2] Report Core Views - Corn is bullish in the short term, and the low-buying strategy remains unchanged. Pig prices are grinding at the bottom, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. Egg spot prices are oscillating at low levels, and near-term contracts are gaining premium [2][4][9][14] Corn Futures Important Information - Deep-processing enterprises' purchase prices in the Northeast and North China regions increased slightly, with the Northeast at 2036 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and North China at 2263 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the price in the northern port was weakly stable, and the southern port was relatively strong. The purchase price of second-grade new-season corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was about 2170 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 573 to 68,764 [4] - The cost-effectiveness of corn for feed increased. As of November 20th, the wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [4] - In October 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 360,000 tons, the highest this year, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90.02% [4] Market Logic - Short term: Spot prices are under pressure from concentrated supply but supported by warehouse purchases. After the seasonal selling pressure is released, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality [4] - Medium term: Conduct band trading around the new-season corn drivers, considering factors such as farmers' selling sentiment and downstream inventory building. Maintain a wide-range trading strategy [4] - Long term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [4] Trading Strategy - Medium and long term: Maintain a range trading strategy; short term: Maintain the short-term low-buying strategy. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2150 - 2160, and the first resistance is at 2200. If it breaks through 2200, the resistance moves up to 2220 - 2230 [5] Pig Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national average pig price was 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. On the 22nd, prices in different regions were expected to be stable or slightly increase [9] - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, and the number in September continued to increase month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply before March next year [9] - As of November 20th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.77 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week [9] - On November 20th, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center announced that from November 24th to 27th, a total of 9,000 tons of central frozen pork will be purchased and 9,000 tons will be sold [9] Market Logic - Short term: Farmers' willingness to hold back sales is increasing, and downstream consumption has improved due to the drop in temperature, leading to a halt in price decline. However, the short-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the upside potential of prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of short-term purchases on market sentiment and the winter epidemic prevention situation [9] - Medium term: The increase in the number of new-born piglets from February to September (except in July) indicates an expected increase in pig supply before March next year, restricting price increases. Pig prices are in a low-level oscillation phase [9] - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no major epidemic, the full-year pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9] Trading Strategy - Spot prices continue to grind at the bottom. Near-term contracts are oscillating to repair the basis. Short term: The price may break through the previous low and weaken further; Medium and long term: Wait for the effectiveness of farmers' capacity reduction. Far-term contracts are trading based on the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. Pay attention to the actual change in the number of sows. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before significant sow reduction [10] Egg Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national egg price was stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - In October, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% and a year-on-year increase of 5.59%. The estimated number of laying hens in November is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [15] Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices are under pressure but also supported. The number of culled hens has increased, slightly relieving the supply pressure. However, the high number of laying hens in production and the rising inventory limit the upside potential. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16] - Medium term: The supply-demand imbalance is difficult to reverse completely. The limited reduction in the age of culled hens and the incomplete release of supply pressure, combined with weak downstream consumption, suggest that prices may continue to trade in a low range. Attention should be paid to the scale and intensity of culling driven by low prices [16] - Long term: The continuous expansion of egg production scale may prolong the price bottoming period. Wait patiently for the capacity reduction process driven by over-culling [16] Trading Strategy - It was suggested in the morning report on Wednesday to gradually close out previous short positions. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. Next week, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to trade the premium of near-term contracts after the price rallies [16] - Medium and long term: Focus on whether the culling behavior driven by low prices can be sustained and whether it can lead to actual capacity reduction. As of now, the capacity cannot be cleared before the second quarter of next year, and supply pressure remains. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the culling situation in the first quarter [16]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月21日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂跌超8%，沪银跌超3%，红枣、低硫燃料 油（LU）、集运指数（欧线）、玻璃、工业硅、SC原油跌超2%；涨幅方面，淀粉涨超1%，玉米涨近 1%。 ...

本作物年度，美国小麦累计出口销量5.45亿蒲式耳，比去年同期增加1.08亿蒲式耳；玉米累计出口销量 11.57亿蒲式耳，同比增加4.62亿蒲式耳；大豆累计出口销量4.7亿蒲式耳，同比减少2.65亿蒲式耳。 美国农业部将于25日发布下一份每周出口销售报告，届时将公布截至10月9日当周的美国销售数据。 新华财经纽约11月20日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米、小麦和大豆期价20日全线下 跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.4150美元，比前一交易 日下跌8.00美分，跌幅为1.78%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.4150美元，比前一交易日下跌8.00 美分，跌幅为1.46%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳11.2300美元，比前一交易日下跌13.25美分，跌 幅为1.17%。 受贸易需求放缓影响，芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价当日下跌，未能维持早盘上涨。由于美国小麦、豆 粕和大豆价格居高不下，交易员不愿追涨。美国大豆价格已使其在全球市场中处于劣势。再加上市场抛 售，芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价正承受压力。 美国农业部20日发布的出口销量报告显示， ...

（责任编辑：康博） 周四（11月20日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数跌1.19%，报30.1058点，亚太午盘以来微幅走高， 北京时间21:42刷新日高至30.6486点，美股开盘后迅速转跌，后续持续走低。CBOT玉米期货跌0.85%， 报4.3775美元/蒲式耳。CBOT小麦期货跌1.50%，报5.4125美元/蒲式耳。CBOT大豆期货跌1.17%，报 11.23美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货跌1.24%，豆油期货跌0.68%。CBOT瘦肉猪期货涨0.82%，活牛期货跌 0.99%，饲牛期货跌1.74%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间11月20日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大 豆期货跌1.17%报1123.00美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.85%报437.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌1.50%报 541.25美分/蒲式耳。 ...

| VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2025年11月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 標 潟 海 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【豆一】 豆一期货主力价格从高位快速回落并伴随减仓。经过阶段性上涨,豆一价格获利了结并进入调整状态。本周中 储粮竞价拍卖大豆，全部成交。成交均价3900元/吨。随着国产大豆价格回落，国产大豆和进口大豆价差缩下 跌、进口大豆 ...