中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/26 | 2025/8/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,214.50 | 1,162.00 | 52.50 | 4.518 | | | 焦炭 | 1,734.00 | 1,678.50 | 55.50 | 3.307 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,905.00 | 15,625.00 | 280.0 | 1.792 | | | 20号胶 | 12,770.00 | 12,510.00 | 260.0 | 2.078 | | | 塑料 | 7,439.00 | 7,380.00 | 59.0 | 0.799 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,084.00 | 7,038.00 | 46.0 | 0.654 | | | (PTA) | 4,864.00 | 4,868.00 | -4.0 | -0.082 | | | PVC | 5,029.00 | 5, ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-25 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 目 录 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：现货看涨及收储提振，期价待反弹沽空 u 期现端：截至8月22日，全国现货价格13.67元/公斤，较上周跌0.03元/公斤；河南猪价13.61元/公斤，较上周价格上涨0.12元/公斤；生猪2511收至13840元/吨，较上周下跌105 元/吨；11合约基差-230元/吨，较上周跌15元/吨。周度生猪价格窄幅调整，随着猪价下跌后，养殖端压栏惜售、二次育肥进场增加，支撑猪价止跌反弹，但需求跟进有限，供应 充足大背景下，猪价反弹受限回落；主力11因现货表现不及预期，偏弱调整，随着8月21日华储网公布8月25日猪肉收储1万吨，盘面情绪支撑小幅反弹，11相对基准地河南仍升水， 基差小跌。周末现货稳中偏强。 u 供应端：能繁母猪存栏2024年5-11月缓增，虽然2024年12月开始产能有所去化，但行业预期利润仍存，去化幅度有限，2025年5-6月产能再度增加，7月小降，处于均衡区间上限， 整体母猪产能充裕，叠加生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，往后推 ...

与此同时，专业机构Pro Farmer在年度作物巡查后预测，美国玉米单产将为每英亩182.7蒲式耳。尽管创 下历史纪录，但仍远低于美国农业部此前预估的188.8蒲式耳。 干旱天气及作物病害仍是潜在风险因素，也为价格提供了一定支撑。 受强劲市场需求及低于预期的产量前景持续支撑，美国芝商所玉米期货价格跃升至月内最高水平。 美国农业部数据显示，美国玉米出口需求持续旺盛，在截至8月14日当周，玉米净销量再增280万吨。 ...

2025年08月25日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五贵金属大幅反弹，鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震。 | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：鲍威尔央行年会上讲话，称劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡 | | | | | | 属 | 变化可能需要联储调整政策立场；不过周末美联储官员古尔比斯讲话重提关注通胀问题。国内黄金 | | 资金 | ETF | | | | 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1199 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | | | | | | 吨；上期所白银库存 1109 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | | | | 白银库 | | | 存 15816 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全 | | | | | | | 球最大白银 etf- ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 利空持续兑现 玉米关注低多机会 收储再度启动 生猪情绪扰动增强 现货底部震荡 鸡蛋高空思路不变 2025年08月22日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 【交易策略】 本周观点：利空持续兑现 玉米关注低多机会 【重要资讯】 1、22日南北港口价格弱势延续。锦州港（15%水/容重680-720）收购价2230-2240元/吨，较前一日跌20元/吨；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2360 元/吨，较前一日持平。 2、22日深加工企业收购价弱势延续。东北地区企业主流收购均价2212元/吨，较前一日跌8元/吨；华北地区企业主流收购均价2460元/吨， 较前一日跌1元/吨。 6、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第34周末，广州港口谷物库存量为138.5万吨，环比下降11.78%，同比下降27.79%。其中： 玉米库存量为77.9万吨，环比增加14.22%，同比增加36.43%；高粱库存量为49.6万吨，环比下降2. ...

| | 未来鸡蛋需求将进入需求旺季，蛋价存在季节性反弹的可能，考虑到供给端的压 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 力，高点大概率低于去年同期。期货延续下行，期货贴水，市场情绪偏空。关注 | | | | 终端需求变化对现货价格的影响，期货盘面关注市场情绪变化。 | | | | 周四，生猪期货震荡，主力 2511 合约日收跌 0.07%，报收 13765 元/吨。现货方 | | | | 面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 13.78 元/公斤，环比持平，基准交割 | | | | 地河南市场生猪均价 13.76 元/公斤，环比跌 0.12 元/公斤，四川平，广东涨，辽 | | | | 宁、山东跌。北方地区出栏量增加，下游有压价空间，猪价下滑；华南市场需求 | | | 生猪 | | 震荡 | | | 恢复，养殖端拉涨，西南局部地区跟涨，支撑南方猪价主线涨。根据季节性规律， | | | | 后市随着各地高位天气消退，需求恢复，叠加反内卷主基调，猪价存在支撑。但 | | | | 供给端充裕，仍对猪价施压。对猪价维持震荡观点，但短期，期货延续弱势震荡。 | | | | 后期持续关注政策及市场情绪变 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on August 21, with all major contracts closing higher [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures increased by 1.83%, closing at 1055.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures rose by 2.17%, ending at 412.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures saw a smaller increase of 0.33%, closing at 530.00 cents per bushel [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For corn, due to the increase in US corn production and ending stocks by USDA, international corn prices are dragged down. In the domestic market, with new grains to be listed in September in the Northeast production area, the supply is relatively loose, demand support is limited, and the spot price is under pressure. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2] - For corn starch, as previously shutdown enterprises resume production, the industry's operating rate has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2484 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. Corn futures持仓量 (active contract) is 949895 hands, up 12659 hands; corn starch futures持仓量 (active contract) is 200843 hands, up 6844 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 91084 hands, up 11036 hands; for corn starch, it is - 21149 hands, up 1645 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 105851 hands, down 4924 hands; that of corn starch is 7450 hands, unchanged [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 366 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 403 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; CBOT corn total position (weekly) is 1549876 contracts, down 67625 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 133174 contracts, down 25206 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The f.o.b. price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, up 0.11 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the corn main contract is 214.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; the predicted sown area in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 340.2 tons, down 24.1 tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 247 tons, down 22 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 133.9 tons, up 0.7 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, down 13.28 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 70 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.06 tons, down 2.4 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 52.3%, down 3.6% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.87%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.86%, down 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.34% [2] Industry News - Based on a sample survey of 179 farmlands, the expected corn yield per acre in Indiana is 193.82 bushels, higher than last year's 187.54 bushels/acre and the three - year average of 182.09 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2003 [2] - Based on 336 samples, the expected corn yield per acre in Nebraska this year is 179.50 bushels, higher than 173.25 bushels/acre in the 2024 survey and the three - year average of 166.33 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2021 [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]