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蔡昉:以制度建设平衡新技术的创造性和破坏性
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-11-14 01:45
Core Viewpoint - The investment in artificial intelligence (AI) must align with China's high-quality development goals to ensure its health and sustainability [3][7][11] Group 1: Investment Trends - There is a global surge in AI investment, driven by low birth rates and high aging populations in East Asian countries, necessitating AI to enhance labor productivity [3][8] - Geopolitical tensions have made key technologies like AI a symbol of national strength, leading countries to aggressively pursue AI advancements [3][8] - Major tech companies view AI as a marker of technological leadership and market share, creating competitive pressure to adopt AI [3][8] Group 2: Nature of AI Investment - Disruptive technological breakthroughs often come with investment booms and potential bubbles, which are acknowledged by economists and investors as unavoidable [3][9] - Jeff Bezos categorizes bubbles into "good" (industry bubbles that enhance productivity) and "bad" (financial bubbles that inevitably burst), highlighting the dual nature of AI investment [3][9][10] Group 3: AI's Dual Nature - AI possesses a dual-edged nature, being both creative and destructive, necessitating careful alignment with human values throughout its development and application [4][11] - The alignment problem in AI development emphasizes the need for ethical considerations and safeguards to prevent potential harm [10][11] Group 4: Supply-Side and Demand-Side Considerations - On the supply side, AI should focus on breaking constraints to productivity and addressing the "Solow productivity paradox" by ensuring that AI enhances productivity rather than displacing labor [4][12] - On the demand side, addressing the challenges posed by an aging population and declining birth rates is crucial, with AI playing a role in enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [5][15] Group 5: Institutional Environment - The successful integration of AI into the economy requires a supportive institutional environment, which can be achieved through reforms that balance the creative and destructive aspects of new technologies [17][18] - Reforms in the household registration system could unlock significant labor supply and resource reallocation, enhancing productivity and consumer markets [19]