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银河期货玻璃期货日报-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 10:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market shows a short - term weak and volatile price trend. The macro - economic situation has a greater impact than the industry itself. The market is concerned about the results of Sino - US negotiations. The supply side has room for decline to achieve balance, and the current price still has room to fall compared with the low profit level of manufacturers last year. The downstream demand is difficult to expect throughout the year due to the cyclical influence, and the price is expected to maintain a rebound trend this week. Attention should be paid to cost reduction and cold - repair of manufacturers in the medium term, and opportunities for short - selling on rebounds [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Data - **Spot Market**: On June 10, 2025, prices of various glass products in different regions showed different degrees of change compared with the previous day and last week. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1104 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and remained unchanged compared with last week [3]. - **Futures Market**: FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all declined on June 10, 2025, compared with the previous day. The main contract's open interest decreased by 16,128 lots to 1,434,554 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 940,795 lots to 1,746,022 lots. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 877 to 877 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts increased compared with the previous day, but decreased compared with last week. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as FG01 - 05 increasing by 9 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly data shows that the daily melting volume of glass decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 155,675 tons, the operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 75.42%, the inventory increased by 3.1% to 69.754 million heavy boxes. The profits of different fuels also showed different trends, with the natural gas profit decreasing by 1.6% to - 170.68 yuan/ton, the coal profit decreasing by 9.1% to 90.96 yuan/ton, and the petroleum coke profit decreasing by 4.0% to - 111.33 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Market Situation**: According to Longzhong statistics, the market price of Shahe large - plate glass changed by - 9 yuan to 1121 yuan/ton, Hubei large - plate glass remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton, Guangdong large - plate glass remained unchanged at 1360 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang large - plate glass changed by - 20 yuan to 1240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: The domestic float glass market price was mainly stable today. Some enterprises in North and East China lowered prices by 1 - 2 yuan/weight box. The market transactions were generally average. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting continued on June 10 [6][7]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price first rose and then fell today. The macro - economic influence was greater than the industry itself. The market was concerned about the Sino - US negotiation results. The market began to trade the cold - repair expectation of glass, but some production lines were in an uncertain state. The supply side needed to decline to achieve balance, and the price still had room to fall. The policy had limited impact on post - real - estate cycle products. The glass was about to enter the off - season, and the downstream demand was difficult to expect. In the short term, the price would be weakly volatile. In the medium term, attention should be paid to cost reduction and cold - repair of manufacturers [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the macro - economic situation dominated, and the price still had room to fall. For arbitrage, it was recommended to wait and see. For options, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [8][9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, daily melting volume, inventory, and profits of glass over different time periods from 2022 to 2025 [10][11][12][14][16].