Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The market's weak reality persists, and steel prices are oscillating. The glass and soda ash markets have a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with prices oscillating. The dual - silicon market has high finished product inventories, and alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Yesterday, glass futures oscillated with large intraday fluctuations and active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 0.98% at the close. Spot market quotes were generally stable, but trading sentiment weakened. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. Currently, glass production is generally stable, and overall rigid demand has limited changes. The weak fundamentals still strongly suppress prices, and policy changes and glass supply should be continuously monitored [1] - Soda Ash: Yesterday, soda ash futures oscillated weakly with active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 1.73% at the close, and all contracts declined to varying degrees. In the spot market, some heavy - soda quotes were lowered, and the spot - futures trading situation was good. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains, and the subsequent supply pressure will further increase. The spot - futures price premium stimulates spot - futures purchases, strongly suppressing near - term prices. Supply changes and downstream demand should be continuously monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Dual - Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Since the National Day holiday, the inventory accumulation of steel products, mainly building materials, has exceeded market expectations. Although there was a rebound in the afternoon affected by coking coal, the rebound was still weak. The main contract closed at 5768 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. After the holiday, the market was stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Overall, silicomanganese production remained high and stable, and downstream demand for silicomanganese was resilient. There was still support for silicomanganese prices after the holiday. In the long term, the supply - demand of the silicomanganese industry is relatively loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector. Changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies should be monitored [3] - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures showed a weak downward trend. The main contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, market sentiment worsened, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. Overall, ferrosilicon production in September remained high, but with continuous profit compression, pre - holiday sentiment declined, and the improvement in ferrosilicon demand during the traditional peak season was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies should be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、铜期货将偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、棕榈油期货 将偏强震荡 原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4730 和 4750 点，支撑位 4689 和 4660 点；IH2512 阻力位 3040 和 3060 点，支撑位 3020 和 3003 点；IC2512 阻力位 7500 和 7550 点，支撑位 7 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-10 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温， 供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1156元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1218元/吨，基差为-62元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻 ...

8月份，国内期货行业经营在复杂多变的经济环境中展现出较强韧性，整体呈现客户基础扩容、业务结 构优化、绿色转型加速的积极态势。期货日报记者采访了解到，随着实体经济风险管理需求释放与金融 科技深度赋能，期货行业正在通过多元化布局构建更具韧性与竞争力的生态格局。 中期协日前公布的数据显示，截至2025年8月末，全国150家期货公司8月代理交易额65.23万亿元，代理 交易量8.95亿手，虽较7月有所回落，但同比仍保持显著增长。从经营情况看，8月150家期货公司营业 收入和净利润分别达38.61亿元和12.34亿元，虽环比均略有下滑，但同比均录得增长。 "8月期货公司营收下降与当月市场交易量减少直接相关，主要是受7月市场活跃度处于阶段性高位的影 响，如纯碱、玻璃等期货品种出现单边行情。而进入8月后，商品价格波动收窄，导致部分投机资金离 场。"中州期货副总经理刘建芝表示，不过，8月新能源、新材料等期货品种成为新的增长点，为市场也 注入了新动能。 从同比角度分析，浙商期货副总经理华俊认为，今年以来期货市场活跃度持续提升，全市场成交量和成 交额同比显著增长，为期货公司带来了直接的营收和利润增长。 刘建芝认为，期货公司客户结 ...

经营稳健向好，客户机构化趋势加速 中期协日前公布的数据显示，截至2025年8月末，全国150家期货公司8月代理交易额65.23万亿元，代理 交易量8.95亿手，虽较7月有所回落，但同比仍保持显著增长。从经营情况看，8月150家期货公司营业 收入和净利润分别达38.61亿元和12.34亿元，虽环比均略有下滑，但同比均录得增长。 8月份，国内期货行业经营在复杂多变的经济环境中展现出较强韧性，整体呈现客户基础扩容、业务结 构优化、绿色转型加速的积极态势。期货日报记者采访了解到，随着实体经济风险管理需求释放与金融 科技深度赋能，期货行业正在通过多元化布局构建更具韧性与竞争力的生态格局。 "8月期货公司营收下降与当月市场交易量减少直接相关，主要是受7月市场活跃度处于阶段性高位的影 响，如纯碱、玻璃等期货品种出现单边行情。而进入8月后，商品价格波动收窄，导致部分投机资金离 场。"中州期货副总经理刘建芝表示，不过，8月新能源、新材料等期货品种成为新的增长点，为市场也 注入了新动能。 从同比角度分析，浙商期货副总经理华俊认为，今年以来期货市场活跃度持续提升，全市场成交量和成 交额同比显著增长，为期货公司带来了直接的营收和利润 ...

十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2）美国政府关门逾一周还无解：参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3）美 国国会预算办公室：上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元，与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4）普京：必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长：俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽，"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5）消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议，特朗普：以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议，本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-9 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温， 供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1156元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1210元/吨，基差为-54元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱，较前一周减少2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in various commodity prices, highlighting the mixed performance across sectors, with some showing strength due to external factors like overseas interest rate cuts and supply disruptions in Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 865 points as of September 29, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the end of August, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 3.8% month-on-month [1][4]. - Domestic demand for bulk commodities saw most prices increase, with glass and coking coal futures rising by 15.2% and 2.1% respectively, while chemical products and cement prices saw slight declines [9][10]. - The South China comprehensive index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year average increase of 6.0% compared to the previous 3.3% [9][10]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The housing prices in major cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index for four first-tier cities showing changes of -0.7%, -0.4%, 1.6%, and -0.2% respectively compared to the last week of August [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors showed strong price performance, with the photovoltaic industry composite index rising by 6.9% month-on-month, and the DXI index for the semiconductor sector increasing by 25.7% [11][11]. Group 4: Non-Food Prices - The ICPI index, representing non-food prices, slightly increased to 100.20 as of September 29, with notable increases in housing, daily necessities, and transportation services [14]. - In the export shipping sector, container shipping prices generally declined, with the CCFI index down by 6.0% [14][15]. Group 5: Logistics and Food Prices - The average monthly value of the highway logistics price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous 0.8% [18]. - Food prices showed mixed trends, with a 3.1% decrease in the average wholesale price of pork, while key vegetable prices rose by 1.4% [19].

他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式Ջ发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注 明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 原木期货日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 重到三 | Z0019556 | | 2025年9月30日 | | | | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 原木2511 | 9月29日 808.5 | 9月26日 807.5 | 涨跌 1.0 | 涨跌幅 0.12% | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 820.0 | 823.0 | -3.0 | -0.36% | | | 原木2603 | 825.0 | 827.0 | -2.0 | -0.24% | | | 原木2605 | 827.0 | 830.0 | -3.0 | -0.36% | | | 11-01价差 | -11.5 | -15.5 | 4.0 | | | | 11-03价差 | -16.5 | -19.5 | ...