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东吴期货生猪周报-20250428
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 13:20
Report Core View - Northern secondary fattening remains active. Although the spread between standard and fat pigs has narrowed, it does not affect the profit of secondary fattening. The previous market logic of near - month weight - reduction selling pressure has been disproven by the spot market. The near - month still has room to rise, but this does not change the fact of far - month supply pressure. When the pen occupancy rate reaches a certain level, the supply will be released, expected in May, combined with production capacity pressure [2] Data Analysis Price - related - There are charts showing the average hog slaughter price in China from 2021 - 2025, the comparison between national and Henan hog prices from 2021 - 2024, and the average price of piglets in China with seasonal trends from 2021 - 2025 [3][11] Quantity - related - Charts display the seasonal quantity of hog warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025, the impact of breeding sow inventory on hog prices with a 10 - month lead time, the change in hog inventory structure, the average hog slaughter weight from 2021 - 2025, and the hog slaughter volume from 2021 - 2025 [3][5] Production - related - There is a chart of the PSY production index of breeding sows on an annual basis from 2018 - 2023 [4] Capacity - related - Charts show the frozen pork storage capacity rate from 2021 - 2025, the average price of culled sows from 2021 - 2025, the culling volume of breeding sows, and the occupancy rate of key slaughter enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [6][10] Profit - related - There are charts of the seasonal profit of purchased hogs, the seasonal profit of self - raised hogs from 2021 - 2025, and the seasonal weekly gross profit of hog slaughter from 2021 - 2025 [7][9][10]