Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: May 8, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - In April, the second - fattening procurement progress was over half, the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down, and the spot price changed little. Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted in both the north and the south, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. There are still second - fattening entry phenomena in the north, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm. The macro sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price: 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 14,750 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [3] - Guangdong spot price: 15,590 yuan/ton [3] Futures Prices - Live hog 2507: 13,535 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509: 13,985 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511: 13,605 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Live hog 2507: trading volume is 5,174 lots, a decrease of 1,503 lots from the previous day; open interest is 30,822 lots, a decrease of 503 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2509: trading volume is 20,829 lots, an increase of 568 lots from the previous day; open interest is 72,161 lots, an increase of 1,403 lots from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2511: trading volume is 3,101 lots, a decrease of 485 lots from the previous day; open interest is 28,725 lots, an increase of 400 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - Live hog 2507 basis: 1,465 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2509 basis: 1,015 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 2511 basis: 1,395 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 7 - 9 spread: - 450 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton [3] - Live hog 9 - 11 spread: 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

Report Introduction - The report focuses on the pig industry with a research date of May 7, 2025, and emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - In April, the procurement progress of secondary fattening was more than half - completed, and the sentiment of chasing high - price purchases cooled down. During the holiday, the reduction of group sales was obvious, and the change in spot prices was small. Currently, the price spreads between fat and lean pigs in the north and south are inverted, and the group's piglet sales have decreased. In May, the pen pressure has increased slightly, and a phased de - stocking may start. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the capital disturbance has decreased. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 14,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 yuan/ton; and in Guangdong, it is 15,590 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 are 13,445 yuan/ton, 13,910 yuan/ton, and 13,530 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 5 yuan/ton, - 20 yuan/ton, and - 80 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 is 5,632 lots, 23,428 lots, and 4,524 lots respectively, with decreases of 1,232 lots, 15,573 lots, and 2,279 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest is 31,498 lots, 69,728 lots, and 27,719 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,022 lots, - 3,220 lots, and an increase of 103 lots compared to the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 is 1,555 yuan/ton, 1,090 yuan/ton, and 1,470 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 255 yuan/ton, 270 yuan/ton, and 330 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 465 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 380 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4] Market Logic - The trading logic has shifted to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spreads from the normal state. The liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread is gradually increasing, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]

Report Core View - Northern secondary fattening remains active. Although the spread between standard and fat pigs has narrowed, it does not affect the profit of secondary fattening. The previous market logic of near - month weight - reduction selling pressure has been disproven by the spot market. The near - month still has room to rise, but this does not change the fact of far - month supply pressure. When the pen occupancy rate reaches a certain level, the supply will be released, expected in May, combined with production capacity pressure [2] Data Analysis Price - related - There are charts showing the average hog slaughter price in China from 2021 - 2025, the comparison between national and Henan hog prices from 2021 - 2024, and the average price of piglets in China with seasonal trends from 2021 - 2025 [3][11] Quantity - related - Charts display the seasonal quantity of hog warehouse receipts from 2021 - 2025, the impact of breeding sow inventory on hog prices with a 10 - month lead time, the change in hog inventory structure, the average hog slaughter weight from 2021 - 2025, and the hog slaughter volume from 2021 - 2025 [3][5] Production - related - There is a chart of the PSY production index of breeding sows on an annual basis from 2018 - 2023 [4] Capacity - related - Charts show the frozen pork storage capacity rate from 2021 - 2025, the average price of culled sows from 2021 - 2025, the culling volume of breeding sows, and the occupancy rate of key slaughter enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [6][10] Profit - related - There are charts of the seasonal profit of purchased hogs, the seasonal profit of self - raised hogs from 2021 - 2025, and the seasonal weekly gross profit of hog slaughter from 2021 - 2025 [7][9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of sows is increasing, posing medium - term pressure on the supply side. However, the active entry of second - fattening farmers and the reluctance of breeders to sell in the short term buffer the supply pressure. The upward trend of the slaughterhouse's operating rate was blocked last week, but terminal demand may improve as the May Day holiday approaches. Overall, the second - fattening market and pre - holiday demand are expected to improve, supporting stable fluctuations in spot prices. The short - term hog futures market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, but due to the medium - term supply pressure, the upside space should be viewed with caution. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Hog prices rose, with the main contract up 0.84% weekly [4][7]. - **Market Outlook**: Medium - term supply pressure exists, but short - term factors buffer it. Terminal demand may improve before the May Day holiday. Short - term futures may fluctuate slightly stronger, but be cautious about the upside [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Futures prices rose this week, with the main contract up 0.84% weekly [5][7]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of April 18, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1397 hands to 18996 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 515, an increase of 515 from last week [9][13]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Hog and Piglet Prices**: The national average hog price was 14.95 yuan/kg this week, up 0.25 yuan/kg from last week and 1.49% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan from last week and 1.21% from last month [17]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On April 10, the national average pork price was 26.03 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [22]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of April 9, the pig - grain ratio was 6.71, down 0.03 from the previous week, below the break - even point and continuing to decline [27]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In February 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40660000 heads, up 40000 from the previous month and 0.6% year - on - year, equivalent to 104.3% of the normal inventory. In March, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms increased slightly [32]. - **Hog Inventory**: In December 2024, the national hog inventory was 427430000 heads, up 490000 from the previous quarter. In March 2025, the inventory of commercial hogs in sample farms increased [35]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In March 2025, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in sample farms increased, and the average slaughter weight of national ternary hogs this week was 124.01 kg, up 0.03 kg from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of April 18, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 21.88 yuan/head, up 33.74 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 79.46 yuan/head, up 28.3 yuan/head. The profit of poultry breeding was 0.4 yuan/head, up 0.22 yuan/head week - on - week [43]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but at a historically low level [48]. - **Substitute Products**: As of April 18, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of April 17, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.11 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg from last week [51]. - **Feed Situation**: As of April 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 3350.86 yuan/ton, up 79.72 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of April 18, the corn price was 2268.04 yuan/ton, down 0.39 yuan/ton from the previous week. The DCE hog feed index fell 0.85% to 933.92, and the spot hog feed price remained unchanged. In March 2025, the monthly feed output was 2777200 tons, an increase of 142800 tons year - on - year [57][61][65]. - **CPI**: As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [69]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 16th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 26.84%, down 0.52 percentage points from last week. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.41%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week [74]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million heads, a decrease of 42.95% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [79]. 3.7 Hog - related Stocks - The report mentions two stocks, Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [80].