1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand before the festival, with a relatively loose supply - demand balance, and the spot price is mainly in a weak - oscillating state. The futures market has sufficient production capacity, and the pig supply is expected to increase slightly. There are still some fattened pigs from the second - round fattening to be sold after the festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. After the festival, it enters the consumption off - season, and the support for the market is weak. Contracts 03/05 are mainly in a weak - oscillating state [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures market**: On the 12th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 11,590 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,540 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 18,323 lots to 290,130 lots [7]. - **Spot market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.52 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply side**: According to sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in February decreased by 17.73% month - on - month. Affected by the reduction in sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of the breeding side for slaughter has increased, and the slaughter volume has been significantly released, with a slight decrease in the north currently [8]. - **Demand side**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Around the traditional Chinese minor new year, the terminal's Spring Festival stocking has increased significantly, which is also the last wave of demand peaks before the festival. The consumption demand has increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased significantly. On February 12th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 286,500 heads, 400 heads less than the previous day, 90,000 heads more than the previous week, and 98,000 heads more than the previous month [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - As of February 5th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.08 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening externally purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling was 12.65 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg [9][11]. 3.3数据概览 - **Breeding profit**: As of February 5th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 37 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 24.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 yuan/head [17]. - **Piglet price**: In the week of February 5th, the average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - **Average slaughter weight**: In the week of February 5th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.40 kg, a decrease of 0.46 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%), a decrease of 1.14 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 3.22 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.59%) [17]. - **Price difference between fat and standard pigs**: In the week of February 5th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.93 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [17]. - **Fattening cost**: The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 11.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg from the previous week [17].