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生猪期货估值重置
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生猪:降重启动,反套格局确立
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:00
Group 1: Investment Rating - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2] Group 2: Core View - In mid - to late May, the volume - price performance confirmed passive inventory accumulation. Recently, the secondary fattening group entered the market in advance at the end of the month due to concerns about policy restrictions, accelerating the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the stage of accelerated weight reduction and inventory reduction. The 7 - and 9 - month contracts will trade the inventory reduction logic. The implementation of the ban on selling secondary - fattened pigs by many enterprises will accelerate inventory reduction and benefit the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, will have a consumption increase of over 30% compared to the third quarter and will be re - valued. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,340 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,255 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,490 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 3,493 lots, down 996 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 16,577 lots, down 945 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 25,112 lots, down 1,184 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,586 lots, up 1,200 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 5,550 lots, down 2,012 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 37,250 lots, up 461 lots from the previous day [3] - **Futures Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the生猪2507 contract is 995 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 760 yuan/ton, up 760 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the生猪2511 contract is 925 yuan/ton, up 925 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread is - 235 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 9 - 11 spread is - 35 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton year - on - year [3][4]