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生猪:降重初启动,等待现货印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:31
2025 年 6 月 10 日 生猪:降重初启动,等待现货印证 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 13900 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13750 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15140 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13070 | | -20 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13475 | | 15 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 13300 | | -35 ...
生猪:降重初启动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the pig market will enter the stage of accelerated weight reduction and inventory clearance. However, the market support in the first week of weight reduction is limited, leading to passive over - stocking by some enterprises and an accelerated decline in spot prices. The de - stocking in the summer weak - demand stage may last longer than expected, pressuring the July and September contracts. - Many enterprises have announced a policy to ban the resale of second - fattened pigs. The inventory clearance in the third quarter is conducive to the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per pig decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will drop by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, has a consumption increase of over 30% compared to the third quarter, and its valuation will be reset. The liquidity of the fourth - quarter contract will increase, and the medium - term expectation turns stronger. Attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,090 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2509 contract is 13,460 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,335 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2507 contract is 5,827 lots, an increase of 3,176 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 16,017 lots, a decrease of 296 lots from the previous day; the Pig 2509 contract has a trading volume of 26,856 lots, an increase of 11,919 lots, and an open interest of 79,821 lots, an increase of 2,234 lots; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 5,203 lots, an increase of 1,757 lots, and an open interest of 37,784 lots, an increase of 332 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2507 contract is 910 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2509 contract basis is 540 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Pig 2511 contract basis is 665 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 7 - 9 spread is - 370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 9 - 11 spread is 125 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
生猪:降重启动,反套格局确立
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:00
Group 1: Investment Rating - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2] Group 2: Core View - In mid - to late May, the volume - price performance confirmed passive inventory accumulation. Recently, the secondary fattening group entered the market in advance at the end of the month due to concerns about policy restrictions, accelerating the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the stage of accelerated weight reduction and inventory reduction. The 7 - and 9 - month contracts will trade the inventory reduction logic. The implementation of the ban on selling secondary - fattened pigs by many enterprises will accelerate inventory reduction and benefit the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, will have a consumption increase of over 30% compared to the third quarter and will be re - valued. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,340 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,255 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,490 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 3,493 lots, down 996 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 16,577 lots, down 945 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 25,112 lots, down 1,184 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,586 lots, up 1,200 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 5,550 lots, down 2,012 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 37,250 lots, up 461 lots from the previous day [3] - **Futures Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the生猪2507 contract is 995 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 760 yuan/ton, up 760 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the生猪2511 contract is 925 yuan/ton, up 925 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread is - 235 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 9 - 11 spread is - 35 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton year - on - year [3][4]
生猪:降重动作显现,反套格局确立
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish view on the market, with a range of [-2, 2] and -2 being the most bearish [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In mid - to late May, the volume - price performance confirmed passive inventory accumulation. Recently, the secondary fattening group rushed to enter the market in advance at the end of the month due to concerns about policy restrictions, accelerating the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the stage of accelerated weight reduction and inventory clearance. After the festival, enterprises have set clear weight - reduction goals and increased sales. The time to reach the bottom of inventory clearance is uncertain. Both the July and September contracts will trade based on the inventory - clearance logic. The implementation of the policy of banning the sale of second - fattened pigs by many enterprises will accelerate inventory clearance and is conducive to the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, will be re - valued, and the market sentiment is expected to strengthen. Attention should be paid to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price data**: The Henan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), the Sichuan spot price is 14,150 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), the Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and the price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,210 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton compared to the same period) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Inventory situation**: In mid - to late May, passive inventory accumulation occurred. The early entry of the secondary fattening group at the end of the month accelerated the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the weight - reduction and inventory - clearance stage. Enterprises have set weight - reduction goals and increased sales. The time to reach the bottom of inventory clearance is uncertain [3] - **Contract trading logic**: The July and September contracts will trade based on the inventory - clearance logic. The implementation of the ban on selling second - fattened pigs will accelerate inventory clearance and is beneficial to the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8%. The January contract will be re - valued, and the market sentiment is expected to strengthen [3] - **Trading suggestions**: The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - **Volume and open interest**: For the live hog 2507 contract, the trading volume is 4,489 lots (down 3,797 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 17,522 lots (down 1,277 lots from the previous day). For the live hog 2509 contract, the trading volume is 26,296 lots (down 4,323 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 77,386 lots (up 1,736 lots from the previous day). For the live hog 2511 contract, the trading volume is 7,562 lots (down 1,217 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 36,789 lots (up 886 lots from the previous day) [3] - **Basis and spread data**: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,140 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of the live hog 2509 contract is 840 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of the live hog 2511 contract is 1,040 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), the 7 - 9 spread is - 300 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 5 yuan/ton [3][4]