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京东集团-SW(09618):25Q2 点评:主站协同效应明显,外卖减亏节奏或将提前
Orient Securities· 2025-08-22 08:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][12]. Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue accelerated significantly, driven by high-frequency food delivery, which boosted both the main site and logistics business. However, losses from the food delivery segment were greater than expected, negatively impacting overall profits. The pace of improvement in food delivery losses may be ahead of schedule [3][9]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,327.6 billion, 1,396.7 billion, and 1,464.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 22.8 billion, 43.6 billion, and 52.0 billion yuan respectively. The target market capitalization is set at 542.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a target share price of 186.37 HKD [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2, the company achieved a total revenue of 282.4 billion yuan, with the electric category contributing 178.9 billion yuan (up 23.4% year-on-year) and daily necessities contributing 103.4 billion yuan (up 16.4% year-on-year). The logistics segment generated revenue of 51.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [9][10]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 7.39 billion yuan, down 48.9% year-on-year, primarily due to increased losses in the food delivery segment [9][10]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects a significant decline in adjusted net profit for 2025 to 16.35 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 37.20 billion yuan in 2026 and 45.56 billion yuan in 2027. The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve gradually over the forecast period [10][12]. Valuation - The company is assigned an 8X PE valuation for its retail and new business segments for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 542.1 billion yuan. The target share price is set at 186.37 HKD, based on the current exchange rate [3][12][15].