今天分享的是：2025外卖市场趋势观察：餐饮零售双向重构，迈步走向大消费 报告共计：46页 2025外卖市场趋势观察报告核心总结 2025年中国消费市场结构性变革显著，社会消费品零售总额预计突破50万亿元，网上零售额持续领跑全球。在此背景下，外卖 市场迎来格局重塑与业态升级，从单一餐饮配送迈向餐饮零售双向重构的大消费时代，成为激活消费潜力的关键引擎。 外卖市场格局告别单极时代，迈入多极竞争新阶段。2025年补贴大战后，市场形成淘宝闪购+饿了么、美团外卖、京东外卖三足 鼎立的态势，订单规模从日均1亿单快速提升至2.5亿单。阿里凭借雄厚的现金储备，将补贴成本转化为长期回报，而多极格局让 商家话语权提升，得以借助多平台流量和补贴实现增长。 餐饮行业完成从"流量竞争"到"经营比拼"的深刻转型。堂食+外卖成为常态，95%的商户同步运营线上线下业务，外卖从补充渠 道升级为核心增长极。商家通过SKU重排、会员运营和人效改造提升盈利，连锁品牌借标准化快速扩张，地方特色品牌突破地 域限制，中小商家依托平台实现订单翻倍。同时，下沉市场被激活，623个县的餐饮订单显著增长，形成城乡协同发展的消费网 络。 零售行业加速从"计划消费" ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 22 年 月 日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 外卖 UE 持续减亏，与零售强协同 京东集团发布 2025Q3 财报业绩。京东 2025Q3 录得收入 2991 亿元，同 比增长 14.9%。按集团构成角度，京东零售/京东物流/新业务各录得收入 2506/551/156 亿元，同比增长 11.4%/24.1%/213.7%。按业务类型角度， 商品收入/服务收入各录得 2261/730 亿元，同比增长 10.5%/30.8%。 用户增长强劲，日百与广告服务收入成主要增长引擎。截至 10 月，京东 年度活跃用户已超 7 亿，本季度用户数量与购买频次同比增长 40%。商 品收入方面，京东带电/日百品类收入分别实现 4.9%/18.8%的增速。日百 品类增速约为行业的 4 倍，其中商超品类已连续 7 个季度保持双位数增 长，带电品类增速放缓则是受以旧换新带来的高基数影响。服务收入方面， 平台及广告收入增速进一步加快，同比增速达 23.7%。 外卖 UE 持续改善，与零售业务形成强协同。受订单量增长以及餐食高客 单价订单占比提升的共同驱动，本季 ...

事件：2025 年第三季度，京东集团实现营业收入2991 亿元，同比增长14.9%，超彭博一致预期；其 中，商品收入2260.92 亿元，同比增长10.5%；服务收入729.67 亿元，同比增长30.8%。从费用端来看， 2025 年第三季度研发/销售/管理/履约费用率分别为1.9%/7.0%/1.0%/7.4%，研发/管理/履约费用率环比增 长0.4/0.1/1.1pct，销售费用率环比下降0.5pct。利润端短期承压：2025年第三季度Non-GAAP 归属于公 司普通股股东净利润为58 亿元，同比下降56%，Non-GAAP 净利润率为1.9%，同比下滑3.2pct。 京东零售：多品类协同增长，用户规模突破里程碑。2025 年第三季度，京东零售实现收入2506 亿元， 同比增长11.4%，经营利润148 亿元，同比增长27.6%，经营利润率同比上升0.8pct 至5.9%。分品类来 看：1）电子产品及家用电器品类受以旧换新高基数影响，增速有所放缓，但仍凭借供应链优势巩固领 先地位。截至三季度末，京东3C 数码门店突破4000 家，线下触点持续加密。2）日用百货品类收入同 比增长18.8%，增速约为行业平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the majority of the covered companies in the consumer services and retail sectors [5][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant improvements in hotel and duty-free data, recommending stocks such as ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotel, China Duty Free, and Huazhu [4]. - It emphasizes low valuation and high dividend yields, recommending stocks like Action Education, Sumida, and Chongqing Department Store [4]. - The report notes the impact of tax reforms on gold companies, recommending stocks such as Laopu Gold and Caibai [4]. - AI advancements are noted to exceed expectations, with recommendations for stocks like Kangnait Optical, Fenbi, and Tianli International Holdings [4]. Industry Updates - Consumer Services: JD's external delivery service is set to operate independently, while Meituan has launched a campaign to honor Ele.me with a name change and coupon distribution [4]. Meituan's flash purchase platform reported record high transaction volumes and user spending during the Double 11 shopping festival, with nearly 400 product categories seeing over 100% year-on-year growth [4]. - Retail: The 2025 Kuaishou Double 11 shopping festival concluded with a GMV increase of over 77% for major brands, while Hema Fresh opened its first store in Huzhou [4]. The total e-commerce sales during Double 11 reached approximately 1.695 trillion yuan, a 14.2% increase year-on-year [4]. - Company Announcements: Zhiou Technology approved a cash dividend distribution plan, while Anker Innovation plans to issue H shares for global expansion [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies in the consumer services and retail sectors, indicating expected growth in net profits for various companies over the next few years [5][9]. - For example, Zhou Dafu is projected to achieve a net profit of 80.64 billion yuan in 2025, while Action Education is expected to reach 3.04 billion yuan [5]. Dividend and ROE Analysis - The report includes a detailed analysis of dividend yields, payout ratios, and return on equity (ROE) for key companies, highlighting that Chongqing Department Store has a dividend yield of 12.2% and a payout ratio of 45.4% [9]. - Other notable companies include Haidilao with a 0% dividend yield and a high ROE of 47.4%, and Laopu Gold with a dividend yield of 1.9% and a payout ratio of 46.1% [9].

独立APP的上线，正是为了解决这一核心痛点。刘强东表示，独立的京东外卖APP将为核心用户及高频 使用者提供更大便利，使其能够更直接、便捷地访问服务。这不仅是产品形态的改变，更是京东对外卖 业务战略重视度的升级，通过集成"即时零售+点评+酒旅+购物"多元功能，成为京东本地生活服务的核 心枢纽。 与外卖App的务实策略相呼应，在内容生态层面，京东推出了旨在重塑消费信任体系的"京东点 评"及"京东真榜"。刘强东郑重承诺，这项业务将"永不商业化"。他犀利地指出了行业乱象的根源："你 如果做了商业化，给你钱的人是谁？……一定是排名靠后、品质一般甚至比较差的商家。他为什么给你 花钱？因为他给你花了钱之后他能变好了，让他排名上升了。" 为了支撑这一承诺，京东必须以行业此前未有的创新模式来打造这一求真榜单。首先，其首创的"AI全 网评"大模型是国内首个专注于榜单生成的AI模型。它每日可对数亿条来自京东站内及全网平台（如小 红书、抖音、微博等）的评价数据进行聚合与分析，对正负向评价一视同仁，力求全面展现商户或产品 的真实面貌。 连发独立外卖App与点评"真榜" 11月17日，京东集团创始人刘强东在三亚举办的"京东品酒会"上，接 ...

11月17日晚，三亚。刘强东再次系上围裙，在第三场"京东品酒会"前直播炒菜。当晚，刘强东宣布京东 外卖独立App（手机应用）上线，他还表示，京东点评将永不商业化。 "我对渔民、对船有天然的感情，小的时候免费蛋白质基本都来自水里，夜里经常钓黄鳝，白天抓小 鱼。"刘强东边炒边与观众聊天，仿佛是老友间的家常叙旧。 这时，距离刘强东上次直播炒菜刚过去两个月。上一次，他炒的是老家宿迁名菜"黄狗猪头肉"；这一 次，他做了两道宿迁名菜，"卷饼尖椒小鱼"和"酱豆炒蛋"。 他炒的是家乡味道 近年来，不断推广宿迁特产，似乎成了刘强东的一个标签。 在直播中，他介绍酱豆的来历，还说这是小时候冬天补充蛋白质的好东西，道出了物质匮乏年代的记 忆。他坦言，即使到世界各地，也会一直带着老家的酱豆子。 这些故事将菜品从简单的食物，提升为情感与文化的载体。消费者购买的不仅是特产，更是一份有故事 的情感连接。 "宿迁黄狗猪头肉"在"双11"首发10分钟预订超千单，证明这种"情感+商业"模式的有效性。 一把炒勺，两端平衡。刘强东的厨房哲学，似乎正在重构京东的战略逻辑。 显然，在商品同质化严重的今天，情感附加值成为差异化竞争的关键。刘强东的个人故事与 ...

Core Insights - JD.com has launched its independent food delivery app, addressing user pain points regarding accessibility to its delivery services [2][10] - The strategic divergence between JD.com and Alibaba is evident, with JD.com opting for a "separation" strategy while Alibaba integrates its food delivery service into its broader ecosystem [8][10] - JD.com aims to build consumer trust through its new initiatives, focusing on authenticity and reliability in local services [12][15] Summary by Sections JD.com’s New Initiatives - JD.com has officially launched the JD Delivery app and JD Review, featuring five sub-channels for food, hotels, products, activities, and home services [4] - The JD True List initiative aims to recruit 100,000 reviewers for blind testing, utilizing an AI model to analyze millions of reviews for authenticity [4][9] Market Reactions - Public opinion is divided; some users appreciate the additional platform for convenience, while others criticize issues like customer service and delivery accuracy [4][6] - Concerns have been raised about the objectivity of the blind testing results and potential manipulation of reviews [4] Competitive Landscape - JD.com’s decision to separate its food delivery service contrasts with Alibaba's integration of Ele.me into the Taobao ecosystem, which aims to leverage Taobao's large user base for enhanced traffic and customer retention [8][10] - JD.com is betting on its established trust in product quality and logistics to differentiate itself in the food delivery market [12][15] Timing and Strategy - The launch coincides with Alibaba's efforts to merge its services, presenting a strategic opportunity for JD.com to capture market share during a potential period of competitor distraction [10][11] - JD.com is positioning itself as a trustworthy alternative in a market saturated with unreliable reviews, aiming to attract consumers seeking genuine recommendations [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company's retail segment achieved revenue of 250.6 billion RMB, growing 11.4% year-on-year, with operating profit rising 27.6% to 14.8 billion RMB [2]. - New business, including food delivery, saw a significant revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion RMB, up 24.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.02 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 1,339.9 billion RMB, 1,463.1 billion RMB, and 1,586.5 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - JD Retail's user base surpassed 700 million, with significant growth in shopping frequency during the "11.11" shopping festival, where the number of ordering users increased by 40% and order volume by nearly 60% [2]. - The logistics segment is expanding internationally, with new services launched in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., enhancing JD's integrated supply chain capabilities [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 8 for 2026, and 6 for 2027 [4][5].

而让他们更难受的是，最新的京东三季度财报显示： 集团营收2991亿元，同比增长14.9%，延续了增长态势；但新业务经营亏损高达157.36亿元，前三季度累计亏损318.4亿元，相当于每天一睁眼就烧掉1.16 亿元。 可外卖日订单量仍停滞在半年前的2500万单。 自京东高调进军外卖行业以来，他们的股价已经跌了近30%，而同期的A股上证指数却上涨了超过20%。 这种反差着实让京东的投资者感到难受。 尽管刘强东亲自下场送外卖、站台卖酒，但京东试图用高频外卖业务带动平台活跃度的战略，似乎并未达到预期效果。 更严峻的是，阿里在今年夏季整合饿了么推出的淘宝闪购，以500亿元补贴规模强势入侵，至今还在补贴烧钱，已经吃下了外卖市场的大头。 京东的巨额投入，正在成为阿里的嫁衣…… 今年2月京东高调进入外卖市场，并且通过给骑手上"五险一金"的消息，成功引起了舆论刷屏，一时间，股价也是大涨。 这意味着，京东新业务在短短9个月内烧掉了超过300亿元。 这些成本不仅仅是外卖的补贴，还有很大一部分来自于大规模地扩充全职骑手队伍，并为他们缴纳五险，每人每月平均缴纳约2000元。 之所以如此执着于外卖业务，源于刘强东对京东增长困境的焦虑。 ...

文 | 窄播，作者 | 庞梦圆 这是《窄播Weekly》的第72期，本期我们关注：京东Q3财报及财报体现的其业务逻辑变化。 整体上，Q3财报及电话会呈现出：京东找增长的路径又在发生变化。 具体来讲，集团总营收增速，核心零售业务的收入增速、经营利润率同比都在提升：2025年Q3京东总 营收2991亿元，同比增长14.9%（去年Q3的同比增速为5.1%）。京东零售营收为2505.77亿元，同比增 长11.4%（去年Q3的同比增速为6.1%）；经营利润率5.9%，去年同期为5.2%。 但与此同时，新业务（主要指外卖、京喜自营、海外业务）的收入和支出都在急剧加大：2025年Q3， 京东新业务营收155.92亿元，同比增长213.7%。新业务运营亏损为157.36亿元，去年同期为6.15亿元。 且由于「对新业务的战略投入增加」，集团整体在2025年Q3经营利润为负11 亿元，去年同期为120 亿 元；本季度经营利润率为负 0.4%，去年同期为 4.6%。（后续高管发言则进一步指出：新业务投入中， 即时零售投入在Q3有所收缩，京喜和国际业务的投入在加大。） 综合电话会释放出的信息可以看出，京东的存量零售业务，除了致力于营 ...