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国泰海通|策略:周期品价格分化,电影景气显著改善
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed performance in various sectors, with a decline in prices for steel, cement, and industrial metals, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The service consumption sector shows a divergence, with tourism experiencing a decline and the film market showing significant improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales continue to struggle, with a 20.8% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities. First, second, and third-tier cities saw declines of 17.8%, 15.7%, and 37.0% respectively [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year during the week of July 21-27, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidy funds [2]. - The film box office saw a significant improvement, with a 49.0% increase week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, attributed to the release of new films during the summer season [2]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - The construction sector remains weak, impacting the construction activity and leading to a decline in steel prices, while float glass prices continue to rise [3]. - Manufacturing activity has slowed down, particularly in the automotive and chemical sectors, while the oil asphalt sector has seen a rebound, indicating some resilience in infrastructure demand [3]. - Industrial metal prices have decreased due to weak demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs, alongside a decline in sentiment regarding the "involution" phenomenon [3]. Group 3: Human Flow and Logistics - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, with a 3.3% week-on-week increase in the Baidu migration scale index and a 21.0% year-on-year increase [4]. - Freight logistics have shown a slight decline, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively week-on-week, but still showing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 6.5% [4]. - Sea freight prices have decreased, and domestic port cargo and container throughput have dropped by 5.0% and 8.5% respectively week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in export activity [4].