1. 《信用 | 万 科 展 期 影 响 再 思 考 》 2025-11-28 2. 《估值有支撑，关注"更高阶"低估》 2025-11-26 3. 《城投 2026，风偏分化？》 2025- 11-25 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.29 高频｜ 地产销售依旧偏弱，电影票房明显回升 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 本周主要关注点：（1）本周 20 城新房销售环比略有回升，同比降幅继续走 阔，重点城市中，仅杭州新房销售高于去年同期，整体上地产销售依旧偏弱 （2）商品价格大多上行，开工率表现分化，生产保持平稳；（3）电影票房明 显高于季节性，热门电影上映，观影需求集中体现。 ❖ 本周新房销售同比降幅走阔。Wind20 城新房成交面积环比 3.08%、同比 -33.38%。具体来看，新房成交环比回落，同比降幅走阔，二线城市新房成 交面积稍弱于 ...

据悉，成立于1816年的太古集团如今业务涵盖地产、航空、饮料、海洋服务及贸易五大板块，在全球员工超过12.1万人，香港总部拥有逾500名员 工。截至目前，该集团拥有三个港股上市平台，其中最为外界熟知的即为太古地产，后者旗下零售业务在近期迎来回暖。 根据第三季度经营数据，太古地产位于香港的三座核心购物中心出租率均维持在100%，零售销售额亦取得不同程度增长。截至9月末，太古广场购物 商场零售销售额同比增长3.6%，太古城中心增长3%，东荟城名店仓增长0.2%。 内地市场的零售市场更为活跃。 近日，有消息称，太古集团香港总部于上周裁员约10%，涉及可持续发展、财务和风险管理等部门的约40人，其中还有部门主管，如集团可持续发展 主管Mark Harper。 根据公开信息，该总部近年来从未出现如此大规模的裁员。太古集团对此回应称，已对总部架构进行检讨以提升整体效率，并精简了部分流程。 与此同时，办公物业业务依旧疲软。 数据显示，截至9月末，位于香港岛港铁金钟站上盖的太古广场，租金下降13%；位于港岛东部鲗鱼涌的太古坊延续二季度的表现，整体租金减少 15%。另外，同期太古地产在香港的整体办公楼出租率为92%，不及202 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The downstream real estate sector shows a slight recovery, while the service industry's domestic flight frequency experiences a minor decline [1][3]. - Upstream nickel and egg prices rise, while international crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. Mid - stream PX, urea, and PTA prices fall, power plant coal consumption is at a low level, and asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: At the National Development and Reform Commission's November press conference on November 27, the commission responded to market hot - spot issues such as humanoid robots and the expansion of infrastructure REITs project issuance. It aims to prevent high - repetition humanoid robot products from flooding the market and promote the healthy and standardized development of the embodied intelligence industry [1]. - **Service Industry**: Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. This is an important measure to improve the universal medical insurance system [1]. B. Industry Data - **Upstream**: - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices rise slightly, with the spot price on November 27 at 119,366.7 yuan/ton, a 1.98% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recover, with the spot price on November 27 at 6.4 yuan/kg, a 2.74% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Energy**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. On November 27, the spot price of WTI crude oil is 58.7 dollars/barrel, a 1.33% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 62.5 dollars/barrel, a 1.53% year - on - year decrease; and the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 4,084 yuan/ton, a 2.34% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Chemical Industry**: PX, urea, and PTA prices fall. On November 27, the spot price of PTA is 4,628.3 yuan/ton, a 0.61% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of polyethylene is 6,980 yuan/ton, a 0.26% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Energy**: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. - **Downstream**: - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - tier cities rise slightly [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreases slightly [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations around the 4000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index are attributed to a battle between bullish and bearish factors, alongside a transformation in market structure. Compared to historical instances, the current A-share market shows significant advantages in growth logic, valuation levels, and industrial foundation, suggesting a potential for a more stable mid-to-long-term market trend as multiple positive factors continue to unfold [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Fluctuations - The 4000-point level serves as a crucial psychological barrier, leading to intense market fluctuations due to the clash of bullish and bearish sentiments. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points on October 29, 2023, but subsequently fell below this level, indicating ongoing volatility [2][3]. - The internal structure of the market reveals that sector rotation and profit-taking demands are direct causes of the fluctuations. The recent rally has been primarily driven by AI technology stocks, which have seen rapid short-term gains, leading to adjustments as investors lock in profits [3][5]. Group 2: Market Structure Changes - The current market structure, valuation levels, and growth logic have undergone profound changes compared to previous instances of the index reaching 4000 points. The contribution of technology stocks to the index's rise has significantly increased, with their weight in the index rising from less than 5% in 2015 to 17% now [6]. - Valuation comparisons indicate that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio remains relatively reasonable, fluctuating between 16-17 times, compared to historical PE ratios that often exceeded 20-30 times when the index previously reached 4000 points [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the current fluctuations, many institutions maintain a positive outlook for the A-share market, believing it can surpass the historical "curse" associated with the 4000-point level. Factors supporting this optimism include a low interest rate environment, ongoing industrial upgrades, and supportive policies aimed at encouraging investment and financing [7][8]. - The market is expected to transition from a previous focus on technology stocks to a more balanced structure, with an emphasis on sectors that demonstrate strong performance and growth potential. Investment strategies may include a "barbell" approach, focusing on both high-growth technology stocks and undervalued defensive sectors [8][9].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4000 points this year, but the actual increase is limited when excluding the major banks and a few tech stocks, suggesting that many weighted industries are still around 3000 points [1] - If major stocks do not experience a rebound, the longer the time passes, the more unfavorable it will be for the index, indicating that the current bull market may have peaked at 4000 points [1] - The market is characterized by a localized bull market rather than a comprehensive one, with many stocks not performing well, and significant declines in tech assets occurring twice this year [3] Group 2 - There is a lack of significant profit effects in the market, with no noticeable increase in new account openings or discussions about the stock market, indicating a disconnect between the index performance and investor sentiment [5] - The trading volume has dropped significantly, with the market operating at bear market levels, and core weighted industries like liquor, securities, insurance, and banks showing low daily trading volumes [5] - The market requires incremental capital to drive growth, which can only come from rebounds in sectors like securities and real estate, similar to the market behavior seen in September 2024 [5][7]

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates an increase in consumer sentiment and continued growth in the technology manufacturing sector, with notable trends in various industries [1] Consumer Sector - Domestic demand indicators are improving, with tourism and long-distance travel showing continuous recovery, suggesting a shift towards service-oriented and mass consumer goods consumption despite a contraction in real estate and durable goods [1] - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year decline of 25.8%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 49.8%, 12.6%, and 22.3% respectively; the sales volume in major cities continues to struggle [1] - Durable goods consumption remains under pressure, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars declining year-on-year; in October, domestic sales and exports of air conditioners fell by 21.3% and 19.0% respectively [1][2] Technology & Manufacturing - The technology hardware sector is experiencing marginal growth slowdown, influenced by AI infrastructure investments; however, the overall sentiment remains strong, with October's PCB exports increasing by 23.4% year-on-year, despite a decline in growth rate [3] - Construction demand is still weak, with slight recovery in steel prices due to reduced operating rates of blast furnaces; prices for glass and cement continue to be under pressure [3] - The new energy lithium battery sector remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in power battery sales of 49.9% from January to October, while prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate continue to rise [3] Logistics & Transportation - Long-distance travel demand has improved significantly, with the Baidu migration index showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% and a year-on-year increase of 18.0%; airline passenger load factors are high, indicating a recovery in business and tourism travel [4] - Freight logistics have seen a month-on-month decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes decreasing by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively; postal and express delivery volumes also fell significantly post "Double Eleven" [4] - Maritime transport prices for dry bulk and oil have risen sharply, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a differentiated growth pattern in the macroeconomic landscape, with strong performance in emerging technologies, ongoing price increases in TMT hardware and lithium battery materials, and improvements in tourism and travel, while demand for durable goods in real estate remains under pressure [1]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year decline of 25.8%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 49.8%, 12.6%, and 22.3% respectively [2]. - Durable goods consumption continues to show signs of overextension, with daily retail sales of passenger cars still declining year-on-year [2]. - Tourism consumption prices in Hainan increased by 4.2% month-on-month, indicating a sustained improvement in tourism [2]. Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The TMT hardware sector continues to show strong performance driven by AI infrastructure investment, although growth momentum is slightly slowing [3]. - The construction demand remains weak, with a slight rebound in steel prices due to a decrease in high furnace operating rates [3]. - The lithium battery industry remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in power battery sales of 49.9% from January to October, and prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate continue to rise [3]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain high due to supply constraints and strong heating and electricity demand [3]. - Industrial metal prices have declined amid fluctuations in overseas interest rate expectations [3]. Group 4: Passenger and Freight Logistics - Long-distance travel demand has improved significantly, with the Baidu migration index increasing by 3.8% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year [4]. - Freight logistics have seen a decline, with nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 2.2% and 0.3% respectively [4]. - Shipping prices for dry bulk and oil have risen significantly, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue but a significant reduction in losses, indicating improved operational efficiency despite challenges in certain business segments [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended September 30, 2025, was HKD 325 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.2% [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders narrowed to HKD 30.827 million, a decrease of 71.8% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic loss per share was HKD 0.0196 [1] Business Segments - The increase in revenue was primarily driven by growth in property investment and development activities [1] - The decline in revenue from the restaurant and hotel segments partially offset the overall revenue increase [1] Cost Management - The reduction in losses was attributed to several factors, including: - Decrease in selling and distribution expenses [1] - Reduction in general and administrative expenses [1] - Lower financial costs [1]

图：上证指数日K线走势 来源：养基笔记 今天上证指数盘中冲高，触碰60日均线之后开始回落，不过最终还是以红盘报收。从行业板块来看，煤炭、地产、银行表现相对坚挺，对冲了大盘下滑的趋 势。早盘冲高的科技股，如CPO、电池、芯片等午盘随大势回落。 海外方面，11月26日，美国贸易代表办公室宣布，将把针对中国技术转让和知识产权问题、依据301条款调查所设立的关税的豁免延长至2026年11月10日。 11月27日降息预期大反转，凌晨美联储表示近期美国经济活动总体变化不大，整体消费者支出进一步下降，部分企业预警未来数月活动放缓风险上升。目前 交易员们正在加大力度押注美联储将在12月议息会议进一步降息。 免责声明：内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议！ 如果稍微回踩一下，大盘就继续上行，那自然是最好的，小跌大涨，大家都赚点钱。不过，对于悲观一点的预期来讲，如果后面几天回调力度过大的话，可 能跌破前期的低点，继续下破3800点，朝着120日均线寻求支撑，也就是说这次的调整，可能会稍微久一点，以便为明年的春季行情出清筹码、腾出空间。 无论是那种情况，我还是倾向于长期看好的，小调整就由它去，不操作，遇到稍微大的调整时就减减仓，时刻保 ...

Industry Overview Production Industry - On November 26, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a video meeting with European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Valdis Dombrovskis, discussing economic and trade issues such as Nexperia. Both sides agreed that enterprises are the main body to solve the Nexperia issue and will jointly urge Nexperia Netherlands and Nexperia China to conduct constructive communication to find a long - term solution and restore the smoothness and stability of the global semiconductor supply chain. They also exchanged views on China - EU export control issues [1] Service Industry - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption. By 2027, the supply structure of consumer goods will be significantly optimized, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 billion - level consumption hotspots, and creating a number of high - quality consumer goods with cultural connotations. By 2030, a high - quality development pattern of positive interaction and mutual promotion between supply and consumption will be basically formed, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth will steadily increase [1] Upstream Industry - Non - ferrous metals prices fluctuate slightly; palm oil prices in the agricultural sector continue to decline; international crude oil prices fluctuate downward [1] Midstream Industry - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX, urea, and PTA decline, while the polyester operating rate remains stable. In the energy sector, the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level. In the infrastructure sector, the asphalt operating rate continues to decline [1] Downstream Industry - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - tier cities pick up. In the service sector, the number of domestic flights decreases [2] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 2205.7 | 0.92% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 11/26 | 6.3 | 2.10% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 8470.0 | 2.37% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 14828.8 | 0.25% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 11/26 | 17.9 | - 0.39% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 86715.0 | 0.71% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 22376.0 | - 0.11% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 21453.3 | - 0.53% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 120233.3 | 1.42% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 17062.5 | - 0.84% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 3181.7 | 0.58% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 812.9 | 0.32% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 3350.0 | 0.75% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 11/26 | 13.4 | - 1.47% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 14858.3 | - 0.34% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 11/26 | 764.3 | - 0.22% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 11/26 | 58.0 | - 4.59% | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 11/26 | 61.8 | - 4.76% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 4100.0 | - 1.96% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 825.0 | - 0.72% | | Chemical industry | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 4654.8 | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 6985.0 | - 0.21% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 1650.0 | 0.61% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 11/26 | 1207.9 | - 0.59% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 11/26 | 136.6 | 0.29% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 11/26 | 114.5 | 0.63% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 11/26 | 90.5 | - 0.33% | [35]