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电池铝箔2026展望:繁荣、萧瑟并存
鑫椤锂电· 2025-09-28 08:48
Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the performance of battery aluminum foil companies in the first half of 2025 and forecasts the industry's future, highlighting challenges such as high concentration in demand and declining processing fees impacting profitability [2][12][29]. Production and Supply - The total production of battery aluminum foil from January to August 2025 reached 317,000 tons, marking a 37% year-on-year increase [3]. - The expected total production for the year is close to 500,000 tons, with effective domestic production capacity at 869,000 tons, where Ding Sheng New Materials holds a 32% market share [5][7]. - The industry shows signs of idle capacity, particularly among newer entrants, while leading players maintain higher utilization rates [9][10]. Financial Performance - Key companies' financial results for the first half of 2025 show varied performance, with Ding Sheng New Materials reporting a revenue of 13.314 billion and a net profit of 188 million, reflecting a 2% increase [11]. - Other companies like Wan Shun New Materials and Jin Yu Co. faced significant declines in revenue and profits, indicating a challenging environment for battery aluminum foil manufacturers [12][14]. Market Dynamics - The demand for battery aluminum foil is highly concentrated, with two major battery cell manufacturers accounting for over 50% of total procurement, leading to increased bargaining power and pressure on profit margins for aluminum foil companies [11]. - The processing fee structure for battery aluminum foil is primarily determined by the price of electrolytic aluminum and the processing fee, with the latter being the main area for price negotiation [16][17]. Future Outlook - The forecast for 2026 anticipates a domestic demand for battery aluminum foil between 650,000 to 700,000 tons, while effective production capacity is expected to reach 921,000 tons [18][19]. - The article suggests that the industry may not see a significant recovery in processing fees in the near term, as the supply-demand balance is expected to stabilize over time [22][29]. - The competitive landscape indicates that while some smaller players may exit the market due to declining processing fees, larger companies with substantial resources are likely to remain resilient [24][27].