投资要点 ▌ 总量观点 10 月海外关注美国政府停摆、经济数据及 10 月降息预期。 预计中上旬美国政府延续关门，目前市场反应还算温和， 警惕持续关门引发的资产波动放大。国内：关注短期增量 对冲政策、中长期十五五风向和 10 月底 APEC 中美进展。A 股震荡整固后蓄势上行，关注政策催化、景气修复和降息 受益三大方向。 行业选择：关注三大方向：1）政策催化（十五五规划受益 的半导体、机器人、工业软件、军工等）；2）景气修复 （三季报盈利预期改善的 AI、创新药、新能源等）；3）降 息受益（联储预防式降息延续利好的有色、非银等）。 ▌ 本期金股组合： 电子：中微公司（688012.SH） 电子：复旦微电（688385.SH） 中小盘：思泉新材（301489.SZ） 电子：长飞光纤（601869.SH） 汽车：模塑科技（000700.SZ） 电力设备：美湖股份（603319.SH） 新能源：深圳新星（603978.SH） 有色：洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 有色：兴业银锡（000426.SZ） 化工：江山股份（600389.SH） 2025 年 10 月 08 日 十月策略和十大金股 —10 月十大金股 注： ...

3 7%的增长 根据ICC鑫椤锂电数据库统计， 今年 1-8 月电池铝箔总产量为 31.7 万吨，同比增长 37% 。 从供应格局来看，老大哥还是老大哥，鼎胜新材以 32% 的市占率居于头位。 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 随着 8 月 30 日鼎胜新材（五星铝业母公司） 25 年半年报的披露，所有已上市电池铝箔企业的业绩得以 全览。 回头看，苦干半年，一把辛酸泪。往前看，苦海无涯，拐点难盼。 在这个即将迎来全年排产最高峰 10 月的临界点，和构思 26 年生产计划的前夕，我们想写一篇文章，回顾下今年电池 铝箔已过的岁月、展望明年的可能性。 而在产能端， 我们统计目前国内电池铝箔的有效产能为 86.9 万吨，其中鼎胜新材是唯一一家产能超 20 万吨的企 业。 从产能利用率来看，行业整体存在着一定的闲置产能。 行业内部则有所分化，头部玩家产能利用率较高，而近几年新进入的玩家，开工状态相对一般。 高集中度带来高议价权 | | | 主要电池铝箔上市公司25H1经营情况 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

格隆汇9月26日丨万顺新材(300057.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司电池铝箔产品可应用于钠离子电池正、负 极。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia is focusing on high-quality development through a series of initiatives aimed at enhancing industrial foundations and promoting regional economic prosperity [1][2]. Group 1: Quality Empowerment and Policy Initiatives - Inner Mongolia has implemented the "Quality Strong Country" strategy, making industrial strength a core driver for regional high-quality development [2]. - The government has established various policies, including the "Quality Strong District Construction Outline" and the "Quality Strong County Management Measures," to support quality improvement initiatives [2]. - An annual budget of approximately 80 million yuan is allocated for quality enhancement, with 10 million yuan dedicated to "Mongolian" brand certification, resulting in 1,374 certified products across 51 counties [2]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Developments - Hohhot and Horinger County have developed a quality ecosystem for the dairy industry, focusing on digital empowerment and brand enhancement, leading to a GDP of 29.464 billion yuan [3]. - Wuyuan County has established the largest sunflower seed trading market in China, achieving a domestic market share of over 40% and an annual export value of 4.2 billion yuan [4]. - The city of Hohhot has transitioned from a coal-dominated economy to a diversified green low-carbon development model, enhancing its industrial structure [5]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Technological Innovation - Baotou's Shiguai District is focusing on wind power equipment manufacturing, establishing a collaborative innovation system with industry and academia [6]. - Ordos City is pioneering a zero-carbon industrial park, aiming for 100% green electricity supply and achieving an industrial output value of 65.29 billion yuan by 2024 [7]. Group 4: Quality Infrastructure and Standards - The establishment of a one-stop service platform for quality infrastructure in Baotou is enhancing technical support for enterprises, with a projected industrial output value exceeding 130 billion yuan in 2024 [11]. - Ulanqab City is developing a brand cultivation plan to enhance market competitiveness, with several products recognized as national specialties [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Inner Mongolia aims to continue prioritizing quality and efficiency, focusing on infrastructure development, innovation, and green growth to enhance industrial competitiveness and regional strength [15].

Core Viewpoint - Wan Shun New Materials (300057.SZ) is actively developing battery aluminum foil products for solid-state batteries and has established supply relationships with several leading battery companies, with product applications depending on customer needs [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company is focusing on the development of high-elongation battery aluminum foil, high-die battery aluminum foil, and ultra-thin battery aluminum foil [1] - High-elongation battery aluminum foil has passed customer usage verification and is now being supplied in bulk, enhancing the growth potential of the aluminum processing business [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the rising prices of alumina, domestic and imported bauxite push up production costs. The decline in domestic alumina operating capacity cannot change the loose supply - demand expectation, suggesting limited upside for alumina prices. Investors are advised to wait and watch, focusing on the support level around 2800 - 3000 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the expected shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season, and the low domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory may lead to a strong upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices. Investors are recommended to go long on the main contract with a light position on dips, paying attention to the support level around 20200 - 20400 and the resistance level around 21000 - 21500. For LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2300 - 2500 and the resistance level around 2700 - 2800 [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the tight supply of scrap aluminum leading to near - loss in recycled aluminum alloy production may cause aluminum alloy prices to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to go long on the main contract with a light position on dips or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on rallies, focusing on the support level around 19800 - 20000 and the resistance level around 20300 - 20500 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Aluminum Futures in Shanghai**: On August 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 20715 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 103054 lots, a decrease of 43106 lots, and the open interest was 251409 lots, an increase of 3066 lots. The inventory was 56274 tons, a decrease of 396 tons. The basis of Shanghai aluminum was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The trading volume was 421870 lots, a decrease of 33265 lots, and the inventory was 84628 tons, an increase of 1496 tons. The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of alumina was - 1, an increase of 5 [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The closing price of the 3 - month LME aluminum futures (electronic trading) was 9837, up 40.5 from the previous day. The price difference between the 3 - 15 - month contracts of LME aluminum futures was 0, an increase of 158.98. The ratio of Shanghai - LME aluminum prices was 7.8511, a decrease of 0.021 [2]. Industry News - An aluminum production capacity green and low - carbon transformation project is expected to have a construction period of about 10 months. After completion, the company's annual electrolytic aluminum output is expected to reach about 1.4 million tons [2]. - On August 22, Anhui Weiyu Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. signed a contract with the People's Government of Shiliang Town, Tianchang City, Chuzhou City for a "200,000 - ton annual aluminum - based new material and energy storage equipment project" with a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan [2]. - Henan Siweite Welding and Repair Co., Ltd. is building a project to reconstruct an annual output of 1200 tons of aluminum wire with a total investment of 6 million yuan, currently in the publicity stage of environmental impact report approval [2]. - The energy - saving report of the Wenshan Green and Low - Carbon Casting Project of Zhongyan (Yunnan) Green Advanced Aluminum - based Materials Co., Ltd. was approved. The project covers an area of about 104 mu with an annual output of 200,000 tons of deformed aluminum and aluminum alloy cast - rolled strips [2]. - Asia - Pacific Technology's wholly - owned subsidiary, Anxinda, plans to invest 210 million yuan in a "Automobile Lightweight Aluminum Material Production Line Transformation Project". After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of aluminum alloy melting and processing [2]. Market Analysis - In the alumina market, U.S. companies are actively buying scrap aluminum due to tariff exemptions, leading to fierce competition in overseas scrap aluminum procurement. Geopolitical conflicts and illegal smuggling in Southeast Asia may cause a continuous decline in scrap aluminum exports to China until the end of 2025 or early 2026. The domestic price difference of precision aluminum is positive and decreasing month - on - month, which may lead to a decrease (increase) in China's scrap aluminum production (import) in August [2]. - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, and the price trend is expected to be strong [2]. - In the aluminum alloy market, the tight supply of scrap aluminum makes the production of recycled aluminum alloy close to a loss, and the price trend is expected to be cautiously strong [2].

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (referred to as "Chain Expo") opened in Beijing on July 16, showcasing 32 enterprises from Guangxi with a focus on traditional industries such as sugar, aluminum, and machinery equipment [1][3] - Guangxi's key production and supply chain display area covers over 300 square meters, featuring three main exhibition areas for the sugar industry chain, aluminum industry chain, and machinery equipment industry chain [1][2] - The expo aims to highlight Guangxi's cross-regional and cross-border production and supply chain layout, showcasing innovative green development achievements and promoting cooperation stories from local enterprises [1][2] Group 2 - The sugar industry ecological chain display area illustrates Guangxi's full industry chain layout from sugarcane planting to deep processing, featuring over 10 sugar products and showcasing circular economy and cross-industry integration results [2] - The aluminum industry display area features the latest research and development achievements in fields such as aerospace, new energy, semiconductors, and automotive, with over 20 competitive brand products on display [2] - The expo will host key industry chain matchmaking meetings to promote deep cooperation between Guangxi's industries and domestic and foreign enterprises, injecting new vitality into regional industrial development [2][3] Group 3 - The Chain Expo, running from July 16 to 20, attracted over 650 domestic and foreign enterprises and organizations from 75 countries and regions, with more than 65% of exhibitors being Fortune 500 and industry-leading companies [3] - Thailand is the guest country for this year's expo, while Shandong and Guangdong provinces are the guest provinces [3] - The event will release the "Beijing Initiative" and host several high-level meetings to explore new paths for international cooperation in industrial and supply chains [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Lidao New Materials Co., Ltd. has maintained a stable credit rating of A+ due to its capacity advantages in the color-coated aluminum industry and established partnerships with well-known enterprises in various downstream sectors, although it faces challenges such as increased competition and declining profitability [2][4]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Lidao specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum products, including color-coated aluminum for construction, food packaging aluminum, and rolled aluminum [7]. - The company has invested in a new project in Anhui Province, which is expected to produce 86,000 tons of new aluminum materials, including battery aluminum foil [17]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net loss of 0.12 billion yuan in 2023, marking its first loss since going public, attributed to intensified industry competition and weak demand in certain downstream sectors [4][5]. - As of March 2025, total assets were 25.74 billion yuan, with total liabilities at 5.31 billion yuan, indicating a debt-to-capital ratio of 26.28% [3][5]. Industry Environment - The color-coated aluminum industry is experiencing weak demand in the construction sector, while the food packaging aluminum market is expanding due to regulatory support and consumer preferences [9][11]. - The battery aluminum foil market is growing rapidly due to the surge in the electric vehicle sector, with production expected to exceed 55,000 tons in 2025 [12][13]. Operational Challenges - The company faces pressure on working capital due to increased inventory and accounts receivable, with operating cash flow expected to be negative in 2024 [5][6]. - New production capacities in Changzhou and Zhaoqing are underutilized, with utilization rates below 70%, leading to challenges in customer acquisition and capacity digestion [4][16]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable credit outlook, supported by its production experience and diverse product applications, despite facing operational and financial risks [5][6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 2024 poses a potential risk to the company's export business and profitability [4][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a loss in operating profit for 2024 due to various factors including decreased processing fees in the aluminum processing industry and increased financial expenses, but showed improvement in Q1 2025 with a revenue increase of 14% year-on-year [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -6.643 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction in loss by 62% [2][9]. - The gross profit margin for the company was reported at 6.56% [9]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main business segments: aluminum processing, paper packaging materials, and functional films [3][9]. - The aluminum processing segment saw an increase in sales volume, with aluminum foil sales reaching 27,000 tons, a 9% year-on-year increase [2][9]. - The paper packaging materials segment reported sales of 8,403 tons, a 23% year-on-year increase [2]. Future Growth Points - The company plans to focus on the new materials sector, optimizing its business structure and expanding its market share in high-value products such as battery aluminum foil and sterile packaging aluminum foil [4]. - The company aims to enhance profitability through quality improvement, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancement [4]. Industry Outlook - The aluminum foil segment, which is the largest business area, is expected to see steady growth in industry scale and consumer demand [6]. Project Updates - The Anhui Zhongji third-phase battery aluminum foil project is progressing, with 8 out of 12 aluminum foil rolling machines in the load testing phase, aiming for full production by the end of the year [7]. Dividend Plan - The company has proposed a cash dividend distribution plan for the 2024 fiscal year, intending to distribute 0.1 yuan per 10 shares [8].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company experienced a loss in operating profit due to decreased processing fees in the aluminum processing industry, fluctuations in aluminum prices, and increased financial expenses, resulting in a net profit of -6.643 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction in losses by 62% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% [1] - The sales volume of aluminum foil reached 27,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with specific sales from Jiangsu and Anhui bases being 18,000 tons and 9,000 tons respectively; paper packaging materials sales were 8,403 tons, up 23% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Comparison and Strategy - The company's performance trends are similar to those of other companies in the aluminum processing and paper packaging materials sectors, with a focus on integrated industrial chain advantages [2] - Future growth points include expanding high-value products such as battery aluminum foil and sterile packaging aluminum foil, while optimizing business structure and enhancing profitability [2] - The company is closely monitoring market trends and customer needs to seize new opportunities [2] Group 3: Product Applications and Developments - The company's battery aluminum foil products are already applied in sodium-ion battery electrodes [2] - The Anhui Zhongji Phase III project for 100,000 tons of power and energy storage battery foil is progressing, with 8 out of 12 aluminum foil rolling machines in load testing, aiming for full completion by the end of the year [2] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [3]