朝闻国盛 杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 25 年 月 日 【宏观】高频半月观—8 月以来出口表现仍强——20250824 【宏观】杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订——20250823 重磅研报 【固定收益】资金宽松，杠杆下降——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250823 【银行】2025上半年各地信贷增速及贷款利率有何变化？——20250824 【电子】消费电子进入新品发布旺季，板块估值重塑可期——20250824 【建筑】联检科技（301115.SZ）-并购拓疆步入收获期，检测龙头迎新 增长拐点——20250824 【食品饮料】安琪酵母（600298.SH）-以史为鉴，大周期起点 —— 20250824 【金融工程】食品饮料终于迎来日线级别上涨——20250824 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数继续下行——20250823 【固定收益】债对股的敏感性或下降——20250824 【固定收益】化债见成果——各地 2025 年 H1 经济财政债务盘点—— 20250823 【电力设备】威力传动（300904. ...

电解铝下游加工及终端消费旺季前瞻 20250822 摘要 铝棒加工费持续走低，7 月华东、华南地区环比下跌超 30%，产能利用 率降至 43.75%，但 8 月订单企稳，库存去化，业者对"金九银十"预 期乐观，预计 9 月产能利用率小幅提升。 铝型材企业建成产能超 1,000 万吨，运行率约 50%。建筑型材受房地 产市场低迷影响大，占比持续下降，从 2019 年的 70%以上降至 2024 年的 45.7%，工业型材需求相对稳定。 房地产市场持续下行，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新开工面 积减少 19.4%，竣工面积减少 16.5%，导致前七个月房地产用铝量同 比减少 35.3 万吨。 为应对国内市场困境，部分铝型材企业积极拓展出口，出口货款回款周 期短且利润丰厚，沿海工厂出口比重已达 50%以上，但需警惕国际贸易 摩擦及绿色铝等政策带来的挑战。 新能源用铝需求增长显著，光伏和新能源汽车领域成为重要增长点。 2025 年上半年新增光伏装机容量同比增长超 99%，1-7 月新能源汽车 产销同比增长超 38%，但铝加工企业面临光伏补贴取消、产能扩张及车 企合作门槛等挑战。 Q&A 当前铝下游加工各 ...

铝市弱平衡与政策扰动 相较于铜市的剧烈波动，铝市呈现供需弱平衡特征。美国未对精炼铝加征关税，但本土铝加工企业受成 本压力影响，部分产品价格上调。国内铝锭库存累增不流畅，主因铸锭量提升与部分终端提前备货。光 大期货指出，沪铝价格在20700元/吨附近震荡，短期需求预期偏弱，但中期受低库存与政策预期支撑， 下方空间有限。 自8月1日美国对半成品铜及铜密集型衍生产品加征50%关税以来，全球铜铝市场波动加剧。铜原料关税 豁免政策与废铜内销限制形成反差，直接影响美国本土加工产业链；而铝市在供需弱平衡下，受政策扰 动与库存压力影响，延续震荡格局。行业正经历结构性调整与短期博弈的双重考验。 铜关税冲击下的产业链调整 美国对铜半成品加征关税的政策，直接冲击其本土铜加工企业。由于铜矿石、精矿及废料等原料未被纳 入征税范围，美国企业进口原料加工后再出口的成本显著上升，迫使部分企业考虑将产能转移至海外或 回流本土。但政策限制美国高质量废铜内销比例（2027年起25%，逐年递增至2029年的40%），进一步 压缩了加工企业的原料获取灵活性。这一矛盾导致美国铜库存高企，短期或面临库存外流压力。 中国作为全球铜加工与消费中心，上半年"抢 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - National general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with a notable increase of 2.6% in July, marking the highest monthly growth of the year [3] - National general public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the same period, with significant contributions from health and social security sectors [3] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing impacts from the real estate market adjustments [4] Group 2: Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology is expected to acquire a 43% stake in Nanfu Battery by 2026, significantly enhancing its earnings [8] - The restructuring strategy aims to deepen control over Nanfu Battery, with projected net profit of no less than 914 million yuan for 2025 [9] - The alkaline battery market is projected to grow, driven by trends such as smart home adoption and outdoor activities, with global retail sales expected to exceed $12 billion by 2025 [9][10] Group 3: Lenovo Group - Lenovo Group reported a strong start to FY2026, with total revenue reaching $18.8 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase [11] - The company’s three main business segments showed robust growth, with the IDG segment achieving $13.5 billion in revenue, up 18% [12] - Lenovo's AI strategy is advancing, with significant developments in both personal and enterprise AI solutions [12][13] Group 4: Ruoyuchen - Ruoyuchen's revenue for H1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a 242% year-on-year increase in self-owned brand sales [14] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates, with EPS projections of 0.81, 1.20, and 1.62 yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - The self-owned brand "Zhanjia" has shown strong performance, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [16] Group 5: Nuo Pin - Nuo Pin is positioned as a leader in high-end blueberry production, with a target EPS of 0.86, 1.26, and 1.56 yuan for 2025-2027 [18] - The company benefits from high barriers to entry in blueberry cultivation, leveraging unique climatic conditions in Yunnan [19] - Nuo Pin's sales channels are expanding, with a significant increase in fresh food revenue from 1 billion to 2.14 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The aluminum processing industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a slowdown in profit growth for the company. However, with the gradual easing of international trade frictions and the ramp-up of new products, the company's performance is expected to return to a rapid growth trajectory [2][11]. - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.15%. In Q2 2025, the net profit was 304 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.22% year-on-year but an increase of 14.24% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations [11]. - The company is advancing its capacity construction steadily, with a current finished product supply capacity of 500,000 tons and an ongoing project for 450,000 tons of high-end aluminum plates for new energy vehicles [11]. - New growth opportunities are anticipated in the AIDC, air conditioning, and energy storage sectors, driven by the increasing demand for heat dissipation performance and the application of liquid cooling technology [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 570 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.15%. The Q2 2025 net profit was 304 million yuan, down 0.22% year-on-year but up 14.24% quarter-on-quarter [11]. - The company adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.40, 1.58, and 1.82 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains a competitive edge in aluminum thermal transmission materials, despite the pressure on processing fees due to industry competition [11]. - The introduction of new products and continuous upgrades in product structure are expected to enhance profitability and market share [11]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's performance will benefit from the easing of international trade tensions and the launch of new products, positioning it for a return to rapid growth [2][11]. - The expansion into new application areas, particularly in AIDC and energy storage, is expected to open new growth avenues for the company [11].

Group 1: Insurance Asset Management - The development trend of China's insurance asset management is anchored by insurance capital and supported by third-party services, focusing on enhancing equity research capabilities and alternative investments in high-dividend and national strategic areas [5][7] - The insurance asset management industry in China has gone through three stages: initial establishment in 2003, policy relaxation from 2012 to 2017, and accelerated market-oriented reforms since 2018, leading to increased competitiveness [5][6] - The current state of the industry shows continuous scale expansion but a decline in concentration, with insurance capital accounting for 74% of funding sources and a preference for fixed-income assets [6][7] Group 2: Midea Group - Midea Group is positioned as a leading player in the home appliance industry, with flexible mechanisms and a focus on global expansion and supply chain efficiency, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [9][10] - The company has a strong dividend policy, with a current dividend yield of 4.8%, and is projected to achieve net profits of 43.9 billion, 47.6 billion, and 51.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [9][10] - Midea's strategic focus on B-end business and continuous investment in core components and integrated solutions is expected to contribute to long-term growth [10] Group 3: Sifen Technology - Sifen Technology's industrial purification business is rapidly growing, with a projected revenue of 384.2 million, 464.7 million, and 558.3 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, 21.0%, and 20.1% [12][13] - The company achieved a revenue of 183 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 54 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 19.8% and 40.9% respectively [12][13] - The growth in the GLP-1 related products segment is particularly notable, with a revenue increase of 177.5% [12][13] Group 4: Huafeng Aluminum - Huafeng Aluminum's performance in the first half of 2025 showed resilience despite industry challenges, with revenue of 5.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.87% [15][16] - The company is awaiting the launch of its Chongqing Phase II project, which is expected to alleviate bottlenecks in hot-rolled production and drive future growth [16][17] - Adjustments to the company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are made to 1.29, 1.50, and 1.88 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10, maintaining a "buy" rating [16][17] Group 5: Tongcheng Travel - Tongcheng Travel reported a revenue of 9.05 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 35.2% [19][20] - The core online travel platform business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant contributions from hotel management services [19][20] - The company aims to enhance its international market presence and strengthen its hotel management business as a second growth curve [20]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 product categories in the tariff list for steel and aluminum derivatives, imposing a 50% tariff on the steel and aluminum components of these products [1] - The newly added list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment [1] - Experts indicate that this move by the U.S. government will increase inflationary cost pressures on domestic manufacturers [1]

Summary of Ming Tai Aluminum Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Ming Tai Aluminum operates in the aluminum industry, focusing on high-end products and applications in electronics and new energy sectors, with a projected 5% increase in these areas by 2024 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement**: The company is transforming to reduce costs and improve efficiency, achieving a balance of volume and price through high-end capacity expansion and product upgrades [2][3]. - **Stable Gross Margin**: The pricing model based on aluminum ingot plus processing fees allows the company to maintain stable gross margins despite fluctuations in aluminum prices [3]. - **Domestic Market Demand**: Increased demand in domestic markets, particularly in new energy vehicles and power grids, compensates for reduced exports. The cancellation of aluminum processing export tax has a limited impact on demand [2][4]. - **High-End Capacity Shortage**: There is a national push for high-end transformation due to insufficient high-end aluminum capacity domestically. Leading companies leverage technological, research, and financial advantages [2][6]. - **Emerging Market Opportunities**: The demand from new sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics provides opportunities for Ming Tai to optimize its product structure [2][6]. - **Recycled Aluminum Production**: The company plans to increase its recycled aluminum capacity to 950,000 tons by the end of 2024, which will help reduce raw material costs [2][7]. - **High-End Product Development**: Ming Tai is advancing the construction of high-end production lines for aerospace and automotive applications, which are expected to yield higher processing fees [2][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Investor Returns**: The company has increased its dividend frequency and ratio, implementing two dividends in 2024, which is expected to enhance investor confidence and support valuation recovery [4][9]. - **Cash Reserves and Capital Expenditure**: With sufficient cash reserves and stable operations, the company anticipates a gradual reduction in capital expenditures, which may further improve investor returns [4][9]. - **Risk Management**: Despite a lower dividend yield compared to peers, the company aims to enhance its dividend level through continuous quality improvement and efficiency gains, while also managing inventory cost risks in a capital-intensive industry [4][9].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 5.964 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a 20.87% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 570 million yuan, showing a 2.15% increase year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses decreased by 2.09% to 540 million yuan [3] - The company experienced a decline in cash flow from operating activities, with a net cash flow of -30 million yuan, a significant drop of 105.90% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on enhancing its core business by expanding its high-end aluminum plate and foil project from an annual capacity of 150,000 tons to 450,000 tons, with total investment increasing from 198 million yuan to 261.9 million yuan [2] - The new project will introduce advanced aluminum processing equipment, which is expected to significantly increase overall production capacity, improve product quality, and reduce costs [2] - The project aims to address the bottleneck in hot-rolled production lines, adding 150,000 tons of high-end aluminum plate and foil materials and 300,000 tons of hot-rolled aluminum plate and foil billets [2] Group 3 - The aluminum processing industry is facing intensified competition due to the cancellation of certain export tax rebates and frequent international trade frictions, leading to a general decline in processing fees and profitability [1] - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company has maintained stable growth in capacity and revenue, highlighting its competitive advantages in the aluminum thermal transmission materials sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved the use of idle raised funds for cash management, aiming to improve the efficiency of fund utilization while ensuring that it does not affect the implementation of investment projects or change the intended use of the funds [18][56]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Holdings Co., Ltd. and is listed under stock code 002379 [13]. - The company has not experienced any changes in its controlling shareholder or actual controller during the reporting period [5]. Group 2: Financial Data and Fund Management - The company raised a total of approximately RMB 800 million through a non-public stock issuance, with a net amount of approximately RMB 786 million after deducting issuance costs [32][44]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had used approximately RMB 236 million of the raised funds, with a remaining balance of approximately RMB 574 million [44]. - The company plans to continue using up to RMB 400 million of idle raised funds for cash management, with a maximum investment period of 12 months [18][48]. Group 3: Asset Impairment - The company has recognized an asset impairment provision of approximately RMB 50 million for the first half of 2025, primarily related to inventory [63][64]. - This impairment provision is expected to reduce the net profit attributable to the parent company by approximately RMB 50 million after considering tax effects [64]. Group 4: Board and Supervisory Committee Meetings - The company held its sixth board meeting on August 13, 2025, where the half-year report and the proposal for cash management were approved unanimously [15][27]. - The supervisory committee also approved the cash management proposal, affirming that it aligns with legal regulations and does not harm the interests of shareholders [28][57]. Group 5: Future Plans and Considerations - The company is considering the impact of global economic fluctuations and industry competition on its investment projects, particularly regarding the high-precision aluminum deep processing project [10]. - The company will monitor market conditions and adjust its investment strategies accordingly, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations [12].