Core Viewpoint - The election of Karol Nawrocki, a conservative candidate, as the new President of Poland is expected to continue and possibly intensify the country's Euroscepticism and nationalist foreign policy, leading to potential friction within the EU and NATO, particularly regarding Ukraine [1][12]. Group 1: Political Background - Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate, won the Polish presidential election in June, succeeding Andrzej Duda, whose term ends on August 6 [1]. - Nawrocki's campaign slogan "Poland First" contrasts sharply with the pro-European policies of the outgoing Prime Minister Donald Tusk, indicating a continuation of political rivalry [1][12]. - Nawrocki's rise from a historian to a nationalist political figure reflects a broader trend of nationalism in Poland, emphasizing traditional values and national identity [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Policies - Nawrocki advocates for a dual approach of "social conservatism + economic nationalism," opposing the introduction of the euro and promising to eliminate overtime labor taxes [7]. - His economic agenda includes a focus on large-scale state-led investments to improve infrastructure, particularly in transportation, which he believes has been neglected by previous governments [7]. - Nawrocki's "National Responsibility Contract" outlines 11 key commitments, including maintaining the retirement age, protecting minimum wage, and expanding public health spending, aimed at attracting labor and rural voters [7][8]. Group 3: Foreign Policy Stance - Nawrocki has a strong anti-Russian sentiment and has been labeled a criminal by Russia for his actions regarding Soviet monuments in Poland [9]. - He openly supports a pro-American stance, having met with former President Trump during his campaign, and has called for Poland to allocate 5% of its GDP to defense, aligning with U.S. military spending expectations [10][11]. - His skepticism towards EU federalization reflects concerns over national sovereignty, as he views the EU as a potential threat to Poland's national identity [11]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - The political landscape in Poland is expected to remain contentious, with Nawrocki's presidency likely to exacerbate the existing tensions between the ruling Law and Justice Party and Tusk's Civic Coalition [12][13]. - The division of power in Poland's semi-presidential system may lead to a stalemate in governance, particularly in foreign policy and defense matters, complicating Poland's role within the EU [13].